HOW MUCH ROOFTOP SOLAR CAN BE INSTALLED IN AUSTRALIA? PREPARED FOR: Clean Energy Finance Corporation and Property Council of Australia About the authors The Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) is an interdisciplinary research and consulting organisation at the University of Technology Sydney. ISF has been setting global benchmarks since 1997 in helping governments, organisations, businesses and communities achieve change towards sustainable futures. We utilise a unique combination of skills and perspectives to offer long term sustainable solutions that protect and enhance the environment, human wellbeing and social equity. For further information visit: www.isf.uts.edu.au The School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering (SPREE) at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) has an international reputation for solar energy research. The SunSPoT Solar Potential Tool, which is the technical basis for the solar potential estimates in this report and a series of Solar Potential assessments published by the Australian PV Institute (APVI) for major Australian Cities, was developed and validated at SPREE for APVI to help inform and facilitate ongoing investment in solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Australia. This work is part of a broader renewable energy systems research program at SPREE, including renewable energy resource assessment, performance analysis, modelling and mapping, renewable and distributed energy integration, and building energy modelling. The Australian Photovoltaic Institute (APVI) is a membership organisation that exists to support the increased development and use of PV via research, analysis and information. We focus on data analysis, independent and balanced information, and collaborative research, both nationally and internationally, providing analysis to industry, regulators and government on a range of technical and policy related issues. We prepare Australia’s Annual PV in Australia Report and represent Australia on the IEA’s Photovoltaic Power Systems and Solar Heating and Cooling research programmes. A detailed summary of APVI projects can be sourced at our website www.apvi.org.au, as well as a range of resources including our solar mapping tool, SunSPoT. Our work is intended to be of use not only to our members but also to the broader community. Institute for Sustainable Futures University of Technology Sydney PO Box 123 Broadway, NSW, 2007 www.isf.edu.au Disclaimer The authors have used all due care and skill to ensure the material is accurate as at the date of this report, however, UTS and the authors do not accept any responsibility for any losses that may arise by anyone relying upon its contents. In particular, tariff rates and regimes may vary significantly from those used in this work and have a significant effect on the results. © UTS May 2019 © UTS 2019 1 Research team Citation Mike Roberts Please cite as: Roberts, M., Nagrath, K. Research Associate Briggs, C., Copper, J., Bruce, A., and University of New South Wales Mckibben, J (2019) How much Rooftop Solar can be Installed in Australia? Report for the Kriti Nagrath Clean Energy Finance Corporation and the Senior Research Consultant Property Council of Australia. Sydney. Institute for Sustainable Futures Chris Briggs Acknowledgements Research Principal Institute for Sustainable Futures Jessie Copper The authors thank the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and the Property Council of Research Associate Australia who commissioned the research University of New South Wales project for advancing thought leadership in the sector. We would also like to thank OMNILINK Anna Bruce for supplying the spatial data for the analysis. Senior Lecturer University of New South Wales John Mckibben Advisor Institute for Sustainable Futures © UTS 2019 2 Glossary Abbreviation Term ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics ACT Australian Capital Territory AEMO Australian Energy Market Operator AER Australian Energy Regulator APVI Australian Photovoltaic Institute AREMI Australian Renewable Mapping Initiative CBD Central Business District CER Clean Energy Regulator CSV Comma-separated values file (a delimited text file type) GW Gigawatt (equivalent to 1000 megawatts) GWh Gigawatt-hour ISF Institute for Sustainable Futures LGA Local Government Area LiDAR data Light Detection and Ranging (remote sensing data) MW Megawatt (equivalent to 1000 kilowatts) NEM National Electricity Market NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NSW New South Wales NT Northern Territory POA Postal Areas PSMA Public Sector Mapping Agencies PV Photovoltaic QLD Queensland SA South Australia SAM System Advisor Model SF Shading Factor SPT APVI Solar Potential Tool SWIS South-West Inter-Connected System TAS Tasmania TW Terawatt (equivalent to 1000 gigawatts) TWh Terawatt-hours UA Useable Area UNSW University of New South Wales UTS University of Technology Sydney VIC Victoria W Watt WA Western Australia © UTS 2019 3 Contents Executive Summary 5 1 Introduction 6 2 The growth of rooftop solar in Australia 7 2.1 The States 7 2.2 The Top Solar Local Government Areas 8 2.3 Residential & Commercial Buildings 8 3 Research Approach 9 3.1 Methodology 9 4 The potential for rooftop solar in Australia 13 4.1 Planning Zones 14 4.2 The States 15 4.3 Local Government Areas 15 4.4 States & their Capital Cities 16 5 References 31 6 Annex 32 6.1 Data sources 32 6.2 Methodology Assumptions 33 6.3 Top Ten LGAs, by State 35 © UTS 2019 4 Executive Summary Over 2 million solar systems have been While most would think of dense installed around Australia, mostly on urban centres in capital cities for the roofs of homes. Australia has rooftop solar, the second largest become a world-leader in solar power. potential (34 GW) is in primary / However, rooftop solar is only just rural production zones. starting to take off on industrial and Commercial and industrial zones commercial sites. How much rooftop together have the potential for solar could be installed in Australia? 26 GW of rooftop solar. Using two path-breaking datasets, this In interpreting these results, it is study provides the first estimate for important to understand that planning Australia: zones do not correspond neatly with building types. There are commercial a top-down estimate of available buildings inside residential, mixed, roof space generated by OMNILINK industrial and primary production using the PSMA Geoscape zones. Consequently, some of the database – a government-owned capacity inside primary and rural initiative which has mapped all the production zones is likely to be buildings in Australia for the first commercial and industrial buildings. time; and As a first study, there will be further a bottom-up estimate of solar data that will refine this estimate in time potential which includes a range of – and beyond refinements of the APVI constraints on the available rooftop methods for factors such as shading space for solar (e.g. shading, there will be rooftops that are not orientation) using the data from actually suitable for solar (e.g. due to detailed studies in inner-city areas structural integrity issues). undertaken by UNSW for the APVI across five capital cities. Our study does not suggest Australia could or should source all its power The estimated total potential for rooftop from rooftop solar. But noting these solar is 179 gigawatts with an annual caveats, our study does indicate that energy output of 245 terawatt-hours. even with the strong recent growth, What do these figures mean? Australia has only just scratched the The potential annual output from surface of the potential. There are still rooftop solar is greater than current many barriers to rooftop solar which if consumption in the national electricity they were to be addressed by market (just under 200 TWh per year). governments, investors and communities could unlock a large Australia is currently using less than volume of clean energy. 5 per cent of the potential capacity for rooftop solar. Maps of the rooftop solar potential for each Local Government Area are Where is the greatest potential for available on the Australian Renewable rooftop solar? Mapping Initiative (AREMI) and APVI Around half of the unused potential Map website. for rooftop solar is in residential zones. © UTS 2019 5 1 Introduction Australia is a world-leader in solar PV, The growth of solar power is already driven primarily by household rooftop reshaping the energy landscape in installations. There are over 2 million Australia – but just how much solar small scale installations around the power could be installed? What is the country with an installed capacity of 8 potential for solar power in Australia? GW (CER, 2018). In total, including For the first time, this report brings large-scale solar power, Australia has together two data-sets and installed over 10.1 GW of solar PV, methodologies to estimate the potential capable of delivering 14.6 TWh and for rooftop solar power in Australia. meeting more than 5.5 per cent of Australia’s energy demand (APVI, a top-down estimate of available 2018a). roof space generated by OMNILINK using the PSMA Geoscape 2018 was a record-setting year for solar database which has mapped over power in Australia. In September 2018, 96 per cent of Australian buildings; a new record for large scale solar (667 and MW) was registered (APVI, 2018a). Rooftop solar on residential and a bottom-up estimate of solar commercial buildings is also growing potential using the data from with 200,000 new installations in 2018 detailed studies in inner-city areas (CER, 2018). undertaken by UNSW for the APVI across five capital cities. However, there is still a huge untapped potential for rooftop solar power in In addition to the total potential for Australia. APVI estimates only one-fifth rooftop solar power across Australia, of all residential buildings have installed estimates are generated for different a PV system. zones (e.g. residential, commercial), states and Local Government Areas. © UTS 2019 6 2 The growth of rooftop solar in Australia The growth of rooftop solar has been Figure 2 Solar PV, by State (MW) extraordinary.