Political Trust in China: Evidence from Water Consumption in Shanghai Nahui Zhen Thesis submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy May 2017 School of Geography, Faculty of Science The University of Melbourne 2 Abstract This thesis aims to understand political trust in China through the lens of fresh water consumption in Shanghai. Research on political trust suffers from a case-selection bias. Most of the studies on political trust focus on liberal democracies and this problematizes the generalisability of those findings. In order to broaden the evidence and to test the relevance of existing theories of political trust in a different political context, this thesis answers three questions: 1. what is the influence of demographic factors on political trust? 2. what is the relationship between risk perception and political trust? and 3. what other factors help explain political trust? It answers these questions through an investigation of people’s trust in water management institutions in Shanghai, which grounds the analysis in a specific risk that requires people to trust in public authorities. A combination of qualitative (semi-structured interviews) and quantitative (questionnaire survey) methods is used, supported by secondary data collection. This thesis finds that that some of the explanations of political trust in democratic regimes also apply in China, but with some subtle differences. Demographic factors have a slightly different effect in China: more educated people and people with urban hukou tend to be less trusting than people with less education and rural hukou, while other individual characteristics, such as age, gender, and household income do not have significant influence on political trust. Risk perception and political trust are statistically correlated and seemingly bidirectional, but the association is moderated by some factors. The main difference between people who trust and distrust the government is whether they perceive the existing risks are reasonable and attribute those risks to the fault of the government. Another key finding of this thesis is that for various reasons political trust may not be a meaningful concept for many people in China, at least with respect to water consumption in cities. 1 Declaration This is to certify that i) the thesis comprises only my original work towards the degree of PhD, ii) due acknowledgement has been made in the text to all other material used, iii) the thesis is less than 100,000 words in length, exclusive of tables, maps, bibliographies and appendices Nahui Zhen May 2017 2 Acknowledgements Coming to Australia is my first time going abroad. Being trained as a human geographer at the University of Melbourne has had a huge influence on my composition of knowledge and way of thinking. My life has changed so much since I arrived here. I have become familiar with this place, made friends here and met my partner here. This three and half years of experience as a PhD student at the University of Melbourne is precious in my whole life. My thanks go first to my supervisors, Professor Jon Barnett, Professor Michael Webber and Professor Mark Wang. Your insightful, frank advice, generous encouragement and professional research attitudes have greatly improved this piece of work and other journal articles. Thank you for your trust in my independence and time management ability. I also appreciate all the life advice and teaching opportunity you gave me. A big thank you to Professor Jon who sponsored me attending the IAG 2014 in Melbourne, and to Professor Michael who gave me financial support for my fieldwork and toward the IAG 2017 in Brisbane. I would like to thank the Chair of the advisory panel – Professor Yoshihisa Kashima, for your warm encouragement and interesting ideas from a psychological perspective. Thanks also to Dr Haydie Gooder, who did such a wonderful editing job with a rather tedious task. My thanks also go to the professional staff in the School of Geography. Thanks to your management and help, the days in this building have got so much easier. I can always get coffee and tea to help me have a clear mind, and a coffee addiction as a side effect of Melbourne. I want to show my appreciation for the residents who accepted my interview requirements in Shanghai. Thank you very much for sharing your time and thoughts with me. My thanks also go to Professor Zhongyuan Chen in East China Normal University, who provided a comfortable working environment for me when I was doing my fieldwork in Shanghai. 3 I want to extend my thanks to my friends in Shanghai, Beijing and Australia. Ayin, Hou Jian, Nuosha Zhang, Marcela Chaves, Sarah Rogers, Kevin Lo, Kate Gomersall, your friendship made this often-lonely PhD journey more interesting. The yum food gatherings and trips with friends to Mt Dandenong, Tasmania, South Australia, and New South Wales have greatly enrich my life. I owe a debt of gratitude to my family, who always give me full understanding and support for whatever decision I make, and this everlasting student life. Some special thanks to my beloved nephews, who light up many moments of my life with their pure voices and laughter. A final thank goes to Mr. Xiaotian Wang. Thank you for your daily calls, listening and interesting distractions. Thank you for your company and always being patient. This research was supported by the University of Melbourne through a Melbourne International Fee Remission Scholarship and a Melbourne International Research Scholarship. My fieldwork was financed by the ARC Discovery Project: Adapting to Climate, Management and Policy Driven Risks to Freshwater Supply in Shanghai. The over 5000 questionnaire survey data (the UoM/ECNU survey) are results of this project. I also benefited from the IAG Travel Scholarship for participation in the IGU conference in Beijing. Without these sponsors, I could not have started or finished this study. I am grateful for these financial supports. 4 Table of Contents ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................ 5 LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... 7 LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... 8 LIST OF ACRONYMS .................................................................................................. 9 LIST OF APPENDICES ............................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 11 1.1 POLITICAL TRUST IN CONTEXT ........................................................................................ 12 1.2 AIM AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS .................................................................................... 14 1.3 THESIS STRUCTURE...................................................................................................... 15 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................. 17 2.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 17 2.2 A CONTEXTUAL FRAMEWORK OF TRUST ........................................................................... 18 2.3 THE IMPORTANCE OF POLITICAL TRUST ............................................................................ 29 2.4 FACTORS USED TO EXPLAIN TRUST .................................................................................. 32 2.5 ASSOCIATION BETWEEN RISK PERCEPTION AND POLITICAL TRUST .......................................... 51 2.6 TRUST RESEARCH IN CHINA ........................................................................................... 54 2.7 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 59 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY .................................................................................... 61 3.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 61 3.2 APPROACH ................................................................................................................ 62 3.3 METHODS SELECTION AND SIGNIFICANCE ......................................................................... 67 3.4 DATA ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................... 74 3.5 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 79 CHAPTER 4 STUDY CONTEXT ................................................................................... 81 4.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 81 4.2 CHINA’S TRANSITION ................................................................................................... 81 4.3 SHANGHAI ................................................................................................................ 86 4.4 WATER PROBLEMS IN CHINA........................................................................................