Executive Summary TRAVEL & TOURISM A WORLD OF OPPORTUNITY The 2003 Travel & Tourism Economic Research CHAIRMAN: Jonathan Tisch Manuel Fernando Espírito Santo Manuel Martin Ron Stringfellow Sir Ian Prosser Chairman & CEO President Partner Executive Chairman Chairman Loews Hotels Group Espirito Santo CyberDodo Productions Ltd. Southern Sun Group Six Continents PLC Brett Tollman Sam Galeotos Paul McManus Lalit Suri VICE CHAIRMEN: Vice Chairman President & CEO President & CEO Chairman & Managing Director Donald Carty The Travel Corporation Galileo International The Leading Hotels of the World Bharat Hotels Ltd. Chairman,President & CEO American Airlines Laurence Geller David Mongeau Ian Swain GLOBAL MEMBERS: Chairman & CEO Vice President Chairman & CEO Jean-Marc Espalioux Akbar Al Baker Strategic Hotel Capital CIBC World Markets Swain Travel Services Inc Chairman of Management Board CEO & CEO Qatar Airways Maurice H.Greenberg Alan Mulally Kathleen Taylor Accor S.A. President & CEO Chairman & CEO President,Worldwide Business Giovanni Angelini Boeing Commercial Airplanes American International Group, Operations André Jordan CEO & Managing Director Inc. Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts Chairman Shangri-La Hotels & Resorts John M Noel Lusotur S.A. President & CEO José Antonio Tazón David Babai Philip Haan Travel Guard International Executive VP International, President & CEO Jonathan S.Linen Chairman Amadeus Global Travel Vice Chairman Gullivers Travel Associates Sales & Information Services Tom Nutley Distribution American Express Company Northwest Airlines Chairman Phil Bakes Reed Travel Exhibitions Jeffrey Toffler Vincent A.Wolfington Chairman & CEO Anthony Harris Chairman Chairman FAR&WIDE Travel Corporation Chief Executive Alan Parker Coventry Partners Carey International,Inc. Hilton International Managing Director Ted Balestreri Whitbread Hotel Company EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE: Chairman & CEO Richard Helfer Mustafa Türkmen Peter Armstrong Cannery Row Company Chairman & CEO Jean Gabriel Pérès CEO & Managing Director President & CEO Raffles International Ltd. President & CEO Enternasyonal Tourism Rocky Mountaineer Railtours Henrik Bartl Mövenpick Hotels & Resorts Investments,Inc.Yapi Kredi Bank Head of Specialized Property James Hensley of Turkey Stephen Bollenbach Finance President Dionísio Pestana President & CEO Aareal Bank AG Allied Europe Chairman Patrice Vinet Hilton Hotels Corporation Group Pestana Partner Gordon Bethune James Hogan Accenture Club Méditerranée Chairman of the Board & CEO President and Chief Executive Stefan Pichler Continental Airlines Gulf Air Chairman & CEO Trevor de Vries Sebastián Escarrer Thomas Cook AG Deputy Managing Director Mondial Assistance S.A. Vice Chairman Paul Blackney Stephen Holmes Sol Meliá President & CEO Chairman & CEO,Hospitality Fernando Pinto Jurgen Weber Worldspan Division Chief Executive Officer Chairman Edouard Ettedgui Cendant Corporation TAP - Air Portugal Managing Director Richard Brown Lufthansa German Airlines Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group Chairman & CEO David Radcliffe Raimund Hosch Eurostar Group Chief Executive Peter Yesawich President & CEO Maurice Flanagan Hogg Robinson Managing Partner Messe Berlin GmbH Group Managing Director Regis Bulot Yesawich,Pepperdine,Brown & Emirates President Jay Rasulo Russel Relais & Chateaux Dieter Huckestein President Bernard D.Frelat President,Hotel Operations, Walt Disney Parks & Resorts President & CEO Marilyn Carlson Nelson Owned & Managed HONORARY MEMBERS: Rail Europe Group,Inc. Chairman & CEO Hilton Hotels Corporation Bonnie Reitz Lord Marshall of Knightsbridge Carlson Companies,Inc Senior VP,Marketing & Sales Chairman Michael Frenzel Xabier de Irala Continental Airlines British Airways plc Chairman Alun Cathcart Chairman & CEO TUI A.G Deputy Chairman Iberia Kurt Ritter Sir Frank Moore,AO Avis Europe Plc President & CEO Chairman David House Clive Jacobs Rezidor SAS Hospitality Taylor Byrne Tourism Group Group President,Global Network U.Gary Charlwood Chairman & CEO and Establishment Services Founder,Chairman & CEO Holiday Autos Group Peter Rogers Frank Olson American Express Company Uniglobe Travel (International) President & CEO Chairman of the Board Inc. Nuno Trigoso Jordão Diners Club International The Hertz Corporation Richard R.Kelley President & CEO. Chairman Jennie Chua Sonae Turismo Gestao Servicos Carl Ruderman Gérard Pélisson Outrigger Enterprises,Inc President & COO Chairman Co-Chairman,Supervisory Board Raffles International Ltd. Universal Media Sol Kerzner Accor S.A. Geoffrey J.W.Kent Chairman Chairman & CEO David Clifton Bruno Schöpfer Kerzner International Ltd. Tommaso Zanzotto Abercrombie & Kent Managing Director,Europe & CEO & Managing Director Asia Mövenpick Group President Nigel Knowles TZ Associates Ltd. J.W.Marriott,Jr. Interval International Managing Partner Chairman & CEO DLA Robert Selander Marriott International,Inc Glen Davidson President & CEO Senior VP,Worldwide Travel MasterCard International CHAIRMAN EMERITUS: Craig Koch David Michels Insurance & Related Services James D.Robinson III President & CEO Chief Executive American International Group Per Setterberg General Partner Hilton Group Inc. The Hertz Corporation CEO RRE Ventures Global Refund Holdings A.B. Curtis Nelson Dinesh Dhamija Krishna Kumar President and CEO Chairman & CEO Managing Director Eric Speck IMMEDIATE PAST Carlson Consumer Group ebookers plc The Taj Group of Hotels Executive Vice President CHAIRMEN: Group President,Travel Harvey Golub P.R.S.Oberoi Lloyd Dorfman Hans Lerch Marketing & Distribution Retired Chairman & CEO Chief Executive Chairman & Chief Executive President & CEO Sabre Holdings Corporation American Express Co. The Oberoi Group Travelex plc Kuoni Travel Holding Ltd. Barry Sternlicht PRESIDENT: Henry Silverman Rod Eddington Paolo Mantegazza Chairman & CEO Jean-Claude Baumgarten Chairman & CEO Chief Executive President & CEO Starwood Hotels & Resorts Cendant Corporation British Airways plc Globus & Cosmos Inc Worldwide,Inc Correct as at 14 February 2003 © 2003 WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL 1-2 QUEEN VICTORIA TERRACE.SOVEREIGN COURT.LONDON E1W 3HA.UNITED KINGDOM TEL:+44 (0) 870 727 9882 or + 44 (0) 207 481 8007 • FAX:+44 (0) 870 728 9882 or + 44 (0) 207 488 1008 • [email protected] • www.wttc.org THE WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM COUNCIL (WTTC) IS THE BUSINESS LEADERS’ FORUM FOR TRAVEL & TOURISM, WORKING WITH GOVERNMENTS TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THE IMPORTANCE OF THE WORLD’S LARGEST GENERATOR OF WEALTH AND JOBS. With the Chief Executives of more than one hundred of the world’s leading companies in membership, WTTChas aunique mandate and overviewon allmatters related to success in Travel & Tourism. This 2003 report for World is the third set of Tourism The message from this report is clear. In 2003, Satellite Accounting research that Oxford Economic World’s Travel & Tourism Industry is expected to Forecasting (OEF) has prepared for WTTC. The first, generate 3.7 per cent of GDP and 67,441,100 jobs, commissioned in 2001, re-engineered the models while the broader Travel & Tourism Economy is previously developed during the 1990s. The second, expected to total 10.2 per cent of GDP and prepared in 2002, held the research fairly static to 194,562,000 jobs. Looking ahead, the forecast for provide a much-needed variance analysis for Travel & Tourism Demand is expected to total 2.9 September 11, used to quantify the tragic events of the per cent real growth in 2003, and 4.6 per cent real previous year. Now in 2003, WTTC has taken the growth per annum between 2004 and 2013. opportunity of this third iteration to significantly upgrade and enhance the quality, sophistication and This WTTC research quantifies and documents the precision of the TSA research. In fact, the Travel & Tourism economics for World, the first step improvements are so significant, we are tempted to towards addressing mission-critical issues such as categorize the 2003 research as the WTTC/OEF TSA tourism management, tourism marketing and 2.0 promotion, tourism infrastructure, taxation, aviation policy and much more. Beyond the enhancements itemized at the end of this report, this 2003 research updates the historical results, We hope that by raising awareness of previous estimates the current performance of World’s Travel & performance, current conditions and the, as yet Tourism, and provides short and long-term forecasts unrealized, potential of Travel & Tourism in World, based on the most recent national and international this report will act as a catalyst, encouraging industry data sources and econometric models developed by and government to continue to work together to Oxford Econometric Forecasting. create the conditions necessary to realize the industry’s true promise. As always, this new TSA research quantifies all aspects of Travel & Tourism demand, from personal consumption to business purchases, capital investment, The War Scenario government spending and exports. It then translates this information into economic concepts of The possibility of a war in Iraq has caused WTTC/Oxford production, such as gross domestic product and to re-assess this 2003 TSA research. The base case presented in this report reflects the assumption of no employment, which can be compared with other war or quick, decisive, and contained military action. The industries and the economy as a whole to provide "War Scenario" on Page 20 illustrates the impact vis-à-vis credible statistical information that will assist in policy the base case assuming a drawn-out, less decisive, and business decision