eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Beryl Information from NHC Advisory 5, 11:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 06, 2018 Beryl now forecast to still be a hurricane as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) 1045 miles ESE of the Lesser 80 mph Max Sustained Wind Position Relative to Antilles Speed: (Cat 1) Land: Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 994 mb Coordinates: 10.7 N, 46.5 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 35 miles Bearing/Speed: W or 275 degrees at 15 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Beryl approaching the Lesser Antilles over the next several days. To illustrate the uncertainty in Beryl’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind- field map (below right) in pale gray. Forecast Track for Hurricane Beryl Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Beryl © Copyright 2018 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. 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The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings at this time for Hurricane Beryl. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2018 Atlantic Season to Date 2018 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2018 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2018 (1/1/18 – 07/05/18) 2 1 0 2018 year to date Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2018 2017 year to date (1/1/17 – 07/05/17) 3 0 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 4 2018 CSU season forecasts 11 4 1 (Colorado State University at Jul 2,‘18) TS Beryl 2018 NOAA season forecasts 10-16 5-9 1-4 TS Alberto HU Beryl (NOAA/CPC at May24, 2018) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2018 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Beryl is the second named storm and first hurricane of the 2018 The graph above shows 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw three named storms - Arlene, average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It Bret, and Cindy - by July 05, but no hurricanes until August 09. shows, for example, that Beryl became the season’s second named storm on July 5. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a well- Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles southeast of the peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining North Carolina coast. Environmental conditions are expected to be percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at July 06 is 97% for all conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to hurricanes and nearly 100% for major hurricanes. form over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward and stalls or meanders near the coast of North Carolina over the weekend. Interests along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657 2 .