Coventry Public Transport Model 2008 Local Model Validation Report (LMVR) November 2009 DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET BPP 04 F8 Client: Coventry City Council / CENTRO Project: Coventry Public Transport Models Job No: B0999800 Document Title: Local Model Validation Report Originator Checked by Reviewed by Approved by ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Firuz Sulaimi Geoff Smith DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE September 2009 Document Status: Working Draft ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME Firuz Sulaimi Geoff Smith Mike Lampkin Phil Collins DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE November 2009 Document Status: Final ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE Document Status: ORIGINAL NAME NAME NAME NAME DATE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE SIGNATURE Document Status: This document has been prepared by Jacobs Consultancy UK Ltd, a subsidiary of Jacobs Engineering U.K. Limited (“Jacobs”) in its professional capacity as consultants in accordance with the terms and conditions of Jacobs’ contract with the commissioning party (the “Client”). 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Coventry PT Model Development, Local Model Validation Report, November 2009 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Model Area 1 1.3 Report Structure 1 1.3 Report Structure 2 2 NETWORK DEVELOPMENT 3 2.1 Source data 3 2.2 Bus and Rail Routes and Timetables 3 2.3 Zone Definition 4 2.4 Zone Connectors 6 2.5 Walk Links 7 2.6 Public Transport Model Fares 8 3 DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS 14 3.1 Bus Passenger Interview Surveys 14 3.2 Counts 14 3.3 Fieldwork 14 3.4 Additional 2009 Surveys 16 3.5 Coventry Station Survey 16 3.6 Bus Data Processing 17 3.7 Bus Data Expansion 19 3.7.1 Forward expansion 19 3.7.2 Double Counting Adjustment 19 3.7.3 Transposition and Reverse Expansion 20 3.7.4 Matrix Building 20 3.7.5 Coventry Rail Station Matrices 21 4 MATRIX DEVELOPMENT 22 4.1 Bus matrices 22 4.1.1 Incorporation of Solihull and NEC Surveys 22 4.1.2 Incorporation of Coventry PT Model (VIPS) Infill Matrices 22 4.1.3 Merged Bus Matrix 23 Coventry PT Model Development, Local Model Validation Report, November 2009 4.2 Base Rail Matrices 24 4.3 Development of ‘Prior’ Matrices 25 5 CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION 27 5.1 Introduction 27 5.2 Assignment Settings and Generalised Time Definition 27 5.2.1 No Fares (Nfa) Assignment Procedure 28 5.2.2 Fares (Fa) Assignment Procedure 32 5.3 Calibration Counts 33 5.3.1 Inner Cordon 34 5.3.2 Outer Cordon Radial 35 5.3.3 Outer Cordon Orbital 36 5.3.4 Bus Boarding and Alighting (Area) Counts 36 5.3.5 Rail Boarding and Alighting 37 5.3.6 Rail Link Flow Counts 38 5.3.7 Screenline 1 39 5.3.8 Screenline 2 39 5.4 Prior Matrix Calibration Results 40 5.4.1 Introduction 40 5.4.2 Inner Cordon Summary 40 5.4.3 Outer Cordon Radial Summary 41 5.4.4 Outer Cordon Orbital Summary 41 5.4.5 Screenline 1 42 5.4.6 Screenline 2 43 5.4.7 Bus Boarding and Alighting Summary 44 5.4.8 Rail Boarding and Alighting Summary 44 5.4.9 Rail Link Flow Counts 45 5.4.10 Conclusion 45 5.5 Calibration Results 45 5.5.1 Introduction 45 5.5.2 Inner Cordon 46 5.5.3 Outer Cordon Radial 46 5.5.4 Outer Cordon Orbital 47 5.5.5 Screenline 1 48 5.5.6 Screenline 2 49 5.5.7 Bus Boarding and Alighting 49 5.5.8 Rail Boarding and Alighting 50 5.5.9 Rail Link Flow Counts 50 5.5.10 Sector to Sector Analysis 51 5.5.11 Trip Length Distribution Analysis 56 5.5.12 Conclusion 57 5.6 Corridor Validation Results 58 5.6.1 Introduction 58 5.6.2 Corridor 58 Boarding and Alighting Validation 58 5.6.3 Corridor 3 Boarding and Alighting Validation 61 5.6.4 Corridor 3a Link Flow Validation 65 5.6.5 Willenhall Corridor Boarding and Alighting Validation 66 6 JOURNEY TIME VALIDATION 70 Coventry PT Model Development, Local Model Validation Report, November 2009 7 CONCLUSIONS 79 APPENDIX A - BUS AND TRAIN ROUTES WITHIN THE MODEL 80 APPENDIX B - ZONE HEIRARCHY 84 APPENDIX C - PRIOR MATRIX AM CALIBRATION TABLES 94 C.1.1 AM Inner Cordon 94 C.1.2 AM Outer Cordon Radial 95 C.1.3 AM Outer Cordon Orbital 96 C.1.4 AM Screenline 1 97 C.1.5 AM Screenline 2 97 C.1.6 AM Bus Boarding & Alighting 98 C.1.7 AM Rail Boarding & Alighting 99 C.1.8 AM Rail Flow Count 100 APPENDIX D - PRIOR MATRIX IP CALIBRATION TABLES 101 D.1.1 IP Inner Cordon 101 D.1.2 PM Outer Cordon Radial 102 D.1.3 IP Outer Cordon Orbital 103 D.1.4 IP Screenline 1 104 D.1.5 IP Screenline 2 104 D.1.6 IP Bus Boarding & Alighting 105 D.1.7 IP Rail Boarding & Alighting 106 D.1.8 IP Rail Flow Count 107 APPENDIX E - PRIOR MATRIX PM CALIBRATION TABLES 108 E.1.1 PM Inner Cordon 108 E.1.2 PM Outer Cordon Radial 109 E.1.3 PM Outer Cordon Orbital 110 E.1.4 PM Screenline 1 111 E.1.5 PM Screenline 2 111 E.1.6 PM Bus Boarding & Alighting 112 E.1.7 PM Rail Boarding & Alighting 113 E.1.8 PM Rail Flow Count 114 APPENDIX F - POST MATRIX AM CALIBRATION TABLES 115 F.1.1 AM Inner Cordon 115 F.1.2 AM Outer Cordon Radial 116 F.1.3 AM Outer Cordon Orbital 117 F.1.4 AM Screenline 1 118 F.1.5 AM Screenline 2 118 F.1.6 AM Bus Boarding & Alighting 119 F.1.7 AM Rail Boarding & Alighting 120 F.1.8 AM Rail Flow Count 121 APPENDIX G - POST MATRIX IP CALIBRATION TABLES 122 G.1.1 IP Inner Cordon 122 G.1.2 IP Outer Cordon Radial 123 G.1.3 IP Outer Cordon Orbital 124 G.1.4 IP Screenline 1 125 G.1.5 IP Screenline 2 125 G.1.6 IP Bus Boarding & Alighting 126 G.1.7 IP Rail Boarding & Alighting 127 G.1.8 IP Rail Flow Count 128 Coventry PT Model Development, Local Model Validation Report, November 2009 APPENDIX H - POST MATRIX PM CALIBRATION TABLES 129 H.1.1 PM Inner Cordon 129 H.1.2 PM Outer Cordon Radial 130 H.1.3 PM Outer Cordon Orbital 131 H.1.4 PM Screenline 1 132 H.1.5 PM Screenline 2 132 H.1.6 PM Bus Boarding & Alighting 133 H.1.7 PM Rail Boarding & Alighting 134 H.1.8 PM Rail Flow Count 135 Table 1 Speed of Walk Links 7 Table 3 Boarding penalty and fare points from Birmingham to Coventry (Slow Train)11 Table 4 Boarding penalty and fare points from Coventry to Nuneaton line 12 Table 5 Boarding penalty and fare points from Coventry to Rugby line 13 Table 6 Sample Rates by time period 15 Table 7 2009 Surveys 16 Table 8 Access Mode to Bus Stops 18 Table 9 Coventry Station Access Modes 18 Table 10 Car Availability of Bus Survey Respondents 18 Table 11 Party Composition Analysis 19 Table 12 Summary of 2008 Bus OD Survey Matrices 21 Table 15 Coventry Station Users Boarding Sample Rates by Time Period 21 Table 16 Coventry Station users Alighting Sample Rates by Time Period 21 Table 13 Combination of Bus Matrices 23 Table 14 Summary of Rail Matrices 25 Table 17 Summary of Prior Matrices 25 Table 18 Prior Matrix Inner Cordon Summary Tables 40 Table 19 Prior Matrix Outer Cordon Radial Summary Tables 41 Table 20 Prior Matrix Outer Cordon Orbital Summary Tables 42 Table 21 Prior Matrix Screenline 1 Summary Tables 42 Table 22 Prior Matrix Screenline 2 Summary Tables 43 Table 23 Prior Matrix Bus Boarding Summary 44 Table 24 Prior Matrix Bus Alighting Summary 44 Table 25 Prior Matrix Rail Boarding Summary 44 Table 26 Prior Matrix Rail Alighting Summary 44 Table 27 Prior Matrix Rail Link Flow Counts 45 Table 28 Inner Cordon Calibration Results 46 Table 29 Outer Cordon Radial Calibration Results 47 Table 30 Outer Cordon Orbital Calibration Results 47 Table 31 Screenline 1 Calibration Results 48 Table 32 Screenline 2 Calibration Results 49 Table 33 Bus Boarding and Alighting Calibration Results 49 Table 34 Rail Boarding and Alighting Calibration Results 50 Table 35 Rail Link Flow Calibration Results 50 Table 36 AM Before and After