Ben Lowings YEMEN IN 2019: CAUSES, CRISIS AND CONSEQUENCES Brussels International Center Research and Human Rights Yemen in 2019: Causes, Crisis and Consequences Ben Lowings, Mohammed Sami and Elisa Cherry CONTENTS Executive Summary 8 Foreword 11 Chapter 1. Dissensus at the Security Council: Generalizations and Blame-Aversion in UNSC Resolutions on Yemen 14 Introduction 14 1. The Yemeni Conflict 15 2. Theoretical Perspectives 19 3. Methodology 22 4. Data 25 5. Analysis 29 6. Conclusion 31 Recommendations 32 Chapter 2. Coup-proofing in Yemen: Saleh’s Military 33 Introduction 33 Coup-proofing Strategies 34 Coup-proofing in Yemen 35 Yemen’s Military Split 37 Saleh and the GCC Initiative 38 Conclusion 39 Chapter 3. The Civil War in Yemen: Understanding the Actors 41 Introduction 41 Hadi’s Government 42 The Houthis 44 The Southern Movement (Hirak) 45 Policy Report Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula 46 Summer 2019 Reader: Fernando Aguiar Design, cover and center spread: © Daniel de Almeida Cabral www.bic-rhr.com Avenue Louise, 89 - 1050 Brussels International Center Brussels - Belgium Research and Human Rights Tel: + 32 02 725 84 66 | [email protected] Brussels International Center | Research and Human Rights Chapter 4. A Weapon of War in Yemen: An Analysis of the Ongoing Food Crisis in List of Graphics 2019 51 Graph 1. Total numbers of different nominations across all categories 25 Introduction 51 Graph 2. Total numbers of Blame Predications 25 The Blockade Against Aid: A Failure From Both Sides 52 Graph 3. Total number of Support Predications 26 The Houthis: Accusations and Views Towards Humanitarian Aid 55 Graph 4. Total number of Request Predications 26 The Role of Saudi Arabia Playing Both Sides of the Conflict 56 Graph 5. Total number of Obligation Predications 26 The World Food Programme’s presence in Sanaa 57 Graph 6. Number of instances of Blame Predications 27 Conclusion 59 Graph 7. Number of instances of Support Predications 27 Chapter 5. Yemeni Women in Peace Processes: From 2015 to Today 61 Graph 8. Number of instances of Request Predications 28 Introduction 61 Graph 9. Number of instances of Request Predications 28 The Women, Peace and Security Agenda in Yemen 61 Graph 10. Relationship Mapping of Actors in Yemen 49 Women’s Role in the National Dialogue Conference 2011-2015 64 Today in Yemen: The Transformation of Women’s Roles 65 Looking Forward: The Position of Women in Peace Processes 66 List of Maps Map 1. Yemen 13 Map 2. 5.1 million people in need in 75 hard-to-reach districts (as of 29 April 2019). Source: OCHA. 55 Map 3. Coverage of food assistance in different regions of Yemen throughout 2018. Source: WFP. 58 List of Tables Table 1. Summary of UNSC Resolutions Regarding Yemen 17 Table 2. Categorization of UNSCRs 23 Table 3. Saleh’s Army 40 Table 4. Overview of Actors 48 Brussels International Center | Research and Human Rights Brussels International Center | Research and Human Rights 8 Yemen in 2019: Causes, Crisis and Consequences 9 in the Yemen conflict. The research team at to unaccountable terrorist groups, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BIC has consulted a wide variety of sources such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian to gather this information, to provide a Peninsula, rather than actors that are well-balanced and highly topical take on the able to be made offical requests; conflict in Yemen. • The only Resolutions to use the At the peak of the Arab Spring uprisings the different actors in Yemen are also a language of ‘responsibility to protect’ throughout the Middle East, protesters in significant reason that the conflict is still CHAPTER 1 were those made in 2011 and 2012, Yemen called for the former President, Ali ongoing. The third chapter in the publication before the conflict intensified in 2015 Abdullah Saleh, to step down from office. outlines the different actors in the Yemen This research analyses UN Security Council After months of protest, Saleh agreed conflict, beyond the ones that are outlined Resolutions regarding the conflict in Yemen Recommendations for improvements to the to hand over power to the second-in- in the media. Many of these actors must be from 2011 to 2019. It introduces the Yemen UN Security Council Resolution strategy on command, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, and a included in the discussion regarding the civil conflict and its actors, and presents a Yemen proceed from these conclusions. new constitution was to be formed unde his war in Yemen, as an end to the conflict will summary of the UN strategy towards Yemen direction in the National Dialogue Conference not be reached without understanding how so far. In order to situate the research within CHAPTER 2 (NDC), which began in March of 2013. The the conflict affects different groups. current literary debates, it introduces a The ouster of Yemen’s leader Ali Abdullah months that followed were met with conflict review of existing research on the political Saleh marked the end of more than three and disagreement by groups around Yemen, The two final chapters focus on more local dynamics of the UN Security Council, its decades of his authoritarian rule over Yemen. and while the conference was finalized issues that are taking place in Yemen, drafting of Resolutions, and the precedent for The footage of Saleh peacefully handing in 2014 through the signing of the NDC specifically the food crisis and the role a particular type of Resolution-language in the Yemeni flag to Mansour Hadi (Saleh’s document, conflict again broke out in the of the World Food Programme in Yemen, ‘responsibility to protect’. deputy president and the new sworn in head following months. and women’s role in peace processes. The humanitarian food crisis has put over 20 It utilizes a discourse analysis methodology of state) reflected a promising step-forward This paper outlines many of the different million lives at risk in Yemen, and this number in order to identify instances of predicated for Yemen’s future. Hadi was to lead Yemen aspects of the events that followed the only continues to rise. The difficultires nominations, specified named actors with for a 2-year transitional period during which National Dialogue Conference, at a local, beyond the sheer volume of food that it a particular description they are attributed the country will, among others, prepare state and international level. The first chapter takes to feed this many people, are within with, which were categorized into four for constitutional amendments as well as in this publication covers the transformation the logistics of transporting the food and groups by the type of predication (Blame, presidential and parliamentary elections. of United Nations (UN) Security Council distributing it safely to those in need. This Support, Request and Obligation) and Although Saleh had transferred power Resolutions, from 2011 into 2019. The chapter focuses on some of the setbacks that themselves split into three categories of time to Hadi in November 2011, he was still transformation that took place at an international organizations face in delivering relating to contextual shifts in the Yemeni operating at the core of Yemeni politics. international level indicates the challenges food aid. conflict (2011-2014, 2015 and 2016-2019). He adopted the role of a spoiler through that the international community faces in The language of ‘responsibility to protect’ which he undermined Hadi’s legitimacy and approaching the Yemen conflict at the UN The final chapter discusses women’s roles in was identified as a key instance of Obligation obstructed the transitional government’s level, as language of blame and support have the peace processes, drawing a comparision in Resolutions, and was particularly roadmap. With more than 30 years in power, become more generalized over time. between the role of women in the NDC scrutinized for. By identifying the numbers conference in 2013/2014 and the role that of these instances, data was found to show Saleh understood the societal and political The second chapter explores the transition women have taken as peacebuilders today. particular trends in naming and attribution texture of Yemen and knew how to play by of power between former President Saleh The role that women have in peace processes strategy within the Resolutions. This data the rule of the game. and current President Hadi. Specifically, today is much different than it was five years has been presented in graphical form. This paper argues that the coup-proofing Saleh’s plans to solidify and protect his ago, however, women are still struggling to strategies adopted by Saleh during his administration prior to the transition, is be heard at the national and international The main findings were as follows: years in power contributed to the failure argued to have ultimately been one of the level. The solution to the conflict in Yemen • Resolutions failed to name all relevant of the Yemeni transition. Saleh tailored reasons that the transition failed. In addition, cannot be solved without fair inclusion of half actors in the Yemen crisis; Yemen’s military in a manner that facilitated the developments at the national level during of the population. • his grasp over the authority. He sought this transition period have had an impact on Resolutions implemented in latter creating a security apparatus that rotated the inability to achieve peace in Yemen today. The themes of these chapters were selected years increasingly resorted to not only for their significance in Yemen generalizations such as ‘all sides’ around his desires. He strove to maintain While the transition ultimately led to current events, but also to bring light to rather than specified named actors; complete autonomy over the country through variety of different problems after 2014, specific topics that are not well discussed • Resolutions manily attributed blame appointing his loyalists in the core of Yemen’s security apparatus.