DECARBONISING PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN HONG KONG Thanks to members of the HK Team: Andrew Pickford, Waltraut Ritter, Jenny Wan, Terry Graham, Marina Hyunh and RAs Valerie Pang, Chor Kui and Leslie LEI, Shuyu, Sam Ho, Kiu Sang John Ure November 2020 1 Table of Contents Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Electrification .......................................................................................................................................... 3 Walkability and Cycling ............................................................................................................................ 3 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 4 A. Hong Kong’s Policies ........................................................................................................................ 6 A.1 Testing Pentograph Fast Charging Public Light Buses ............................................................................................... 6 A.2 Hybrids, Trolleys, BEBs and Fuel Cell-driven Buses ................................................................................................... 7 B. Electrification of Buses – Hong Kong’s Response ............................................................................. 12 B.1 The cost/benefit of BEBs ......................................................................................................................................... 12 B.2 Has Hong Kong been Slow to Test? ......................................................................................................................... 13 B.3 Retro-fitting Euro-buses .......................................................................................................................................... 13 B.4 Batteries and the Recharging Infrastructure ........................................................................................................... 14 B.5 Shenzhen (Mainland China) .................................................................................................................................... 14 B.6 Business models ...................................................................................................................................................... 15 B.7 Hong Kong ............................................................................................................................................................... 15 B.8 Taxis ......................................................................................................................................................................... 16 B.9 Renewable energy ................................................................................................................................................... 16 C. Walking and Cycling as Inter-Modal Mobility .................................................................................. 17 C.1 Connectivity ............................................................................................................................................................. 18 C.2 Cycling ..................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 21 2 Decarbonising Public Transport in Hong Kong Summary Electrification • Estimates of the annual health cost to Hong Kong arising from air pollutants is estimated by two very different studies to be either close to HKD100 billion (CUHK-EPD website) or HKD20 billion (Hedley Institute – HKU) • This paper estimates that replacing all current buses (over 6,000) by electric-only buses by mide- 2020s would likely cost something over HKD30 billion. A recharging infrastructure would cost additional. • The reduction in premature deaths could be as high over 6,000 a year (CUHK) or nearly 2,000 annually (HKU) • Globally government grants are being made available to fleet operators and could be in the form of direct subsidies or tax redemptions on lifetime costs of ownership (which shift the focus towards fleet maintenance) • The electrification of all forms of road-using motorised transportation in Hong Kong would enable facilities sharing of e-recharging apparatus or hydrogen refuelling stations to reduce costs and incentivise the transition to e-vehicles • That electric recharging and hydrogen fuel cell refuelling is or will be less expensive than diesel or petrol refuelling seems widely supported by use cases contributing to a lower lifetime cost of ownership. • Shared facilities are bus terminals and public transport interchanges (PTIs) offer opportunities for fast 5G IoT networking and data diagnostics services alongside passenger information for multi- modal journeys • Electrification will make terminals and PTIs cleaner and allow them to become greener (oxygen- generating plants) and pleasing surroundings offering, for example, places for coffee shops and eateries • Using renewable energy sources, notable solar energy and hydrogen fuel cells, in buses and terminals/PTIs can save costs and power information boards, WiFi connectivity, and if sourced from the grid, air con, etc., but this leaves open the question of how clean is grid electricity or hydrogen capture. Walkability and Cycling • Walking is the mode of mobility that universally links to other modes of transport, but it is rarely if ever measured as such. The last full survey in Hong Kong for all modes of mobility was 2011. • Government papers seem to reflect the insights provided by Civic Exchange to encourage walking, which include making walkways smart, connected, enjoyable and safe, offering functions of linkage and places for enjoyment • But many obstacles remain, including cluttered streets, obstacles to mobility – especially for disabled people – and uncovered walkways that deter walking when weather conditions are adverse. Redesigning streets, spaces and buildings to connect to each other with covered air con (zero marginal cost) walkways connecting to modes of transport can shift people away from cars. • Cycling is even less surveyed than walking. Besides cycling lanes for safety, bike parking at stations and bus terminals needs to be accelerated, and bike storage on buses and trains promoted. 3 Introduction To achieve the decarbonisation of public transport it will be necessary to switch to electric vehicles – either electric battery or a hydrogen-fuel cell – a change that will cost money in the upfront capital costs of new buses (and a recharging infrastructure) but will reduce the lifetime costs of ownership because of lower operating costs. But there are also health costs to be included. It is well established that vehicle emissions nitrogen oxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) – especially PM2.5 with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (micrometre) – are a major cause of environment pollution, of respiratory and cardiac health problems and contribute to global warming through carbonisation,1 therefore a major benefit to society would be improvements in health. This section of the paper offers estimates of these costs and benefits, but immediately runs into a problem. There are two major studies in Hong Kong over recent years of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) and the Economic Impact Assessment (EIA) of pollutants, one by the Hedley Institute, Department of Community Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong published in the Open Epidemiology Journal (2011)2 and one from the School of Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong and posted on the website of the Environmental Protection Department (2016). 3 They come to widely differing estimates of the EIA. At the centre of the analysis is an estimation of the RR (Relative Risk) to a baseline level of pollutants. The base 3 3 line is typically that of the World Health Organisation (WHO) of 10μm/m for PM2.5 and 40μm/m for NO2. In 3 3 the case of Hong Kong, the levels used in the 2016 study were 28.6μm/m for PM2.5 and 52.7μm/m for NO2. The difference between the two levels is referred to as the attributable fraction. The CUHK using 2012 recorded data of deaths, visits to GPs and hospitalizations due to diseases associated with pollution and loss of productivity then estimated the total cost. The estimated annual resulting cost of premature loss of life – put at 6,308 preventable deaths for the year 2012 – came to HKD99.55 billion. However, an estimate of the source of these pollutants in 2007 was 53% from Hong Kong and the rest from outside the territory. Using this estimate In the absence of more up-to-date data, the total cost due to local pollution can be re-estimated at around HKD52.8 billion. The question for this paper is what percentage of those costs arose from pollution caused by buses and public light buses. An estimate published in 2014 of the percentage of air pollutants in Hong Kong that were due to road transport were as follows: NO2 19%, and PM 14% respiratory suspended particulates and 17% fine suspended particulates.4 Using as a ballpark figure 17% overall, and making the assumption that the total health cost of pollutants can be assigned according to their percentage contribution