Fayette County, Pennsylvania Housing Market Analysis Prepared for the Fayette County Housing Consortium By Mullin & Lonergan Associates, Inc. June 2005 Fayette County Housing Market Analysis FAYETTE COUNTY HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................1 A. What is the purpose of this housing market analysis?..............................................1 B. What drives the Fayette County housing market?....................................................2 C. The market responds by creating over 5,000 housing units.....................................3 D. Household incomes are low in Fayette County ........................................................4 E. The county’s housing stock is becoming more diverse ............................................5 F. Are household incomes keeping up with increases in housing costs?.....................5 G. Condition of the county’s housing stock ...................................................................5 H. Predicting future housing demand ............................................................................6 i. For-Sale Units.................................................................................................6 ii. Rental Units ....................................................................................................7 I. Where is housing growth expected to occur?...........................................................7 i. The movement of population within the county..............................................7 ii. Availability of land for development................................................................8 iii. Accessibility to major highways and access to public water and sewer service ............................................................................................................8 J. Other factors that influence housing decisions .......................................................10 i. Taxes............................................................................................................10 ii. Public Education...........................................................................................11 K. Commuting patterns................................................................................................11 L. Major housing needs in Fayette County .................................................................13 i. Improve the quality of the existing low cost housing stock, including owner- occupied units, rental units, and personal care facilities ..............................13 ii. A variety of housing styles and densities distributed throughout the county14 iii. Market rate rental units of varying bedroom sizes........................................14 iv. Market rate for-sale housing for households with incomes above $75,000 .15 v. Increased housing demand for seniors in Masontown, Brownsville, and Smithfield......................................................................................................15 vi. Neighborhood revitalization adjacent to downtowns ....................................16 vii. Local planning for residential and mixed use development .........................16 viii. Revitalization of rural villages.......................................................................17 ix. Address the housing needs of special populations ......................................19 2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................20 3. INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................21 A. Market Areas...........................................................................................................21 4. SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS & PROJECTIONS ................................23 A. Population and Household Trends..........................................................................23 i. Population.....................................................................................................23 ii. Population by Age and Sex ..........................................................................23 iii. Population by Race ......................................................................................24 iv. Households...................................................................................................25 v. Migration.......................................................................................................26 vi. Population Projections..................................................................................29 vii. Housing Units ...............................................................................................30 viii. Units per Structure........................................................................................31 ix. Tenure ..........................................................................................................32 June 2005 Page i Fayette County Housing Market Analysis x. Vacant Housing ............................................................................................33 xi. Housing Value and Rent...............................................................................34 xii. Housing Condition ........................................................................................36 xiii. Demographic Impacts on Housing ...............................................................37 xiv. Fayette County Indicators against Regional Indices ....................................40 xv. Income Trends..............................................................................................43 B. Labor Force, Unemployment, and Employment Trends.........................................43 i. Unemployment Trends .................................................................................43 ii. Employment by Industry...............................................................................46 iii. Major New Employers ..................................................................................47 C. Economic Incentives for New Employers ...............................................................47 i. KOZ ..............................................................................................................47 ii. LERTA ..........................................................................................................49 5. HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS AND REAL ESTATE MARKET CONDITIONS ..............................................................................50 A. Housing Supply Characteristics..............................................................................50 i. Income Ranges ............................................................................................50 ii. Number and Location of Available Housing Supply .....................................52 iii. Total Housing Supply ...................................................................................52 iv. Total Housing Supply by Units per Structure and Mobile Homes ................59 v. Homeowner Housing ....................................................................................64 vi. Homeowner Housing by Units per Structure and Mobile Homes.................68 vii. Homeowner Housing by Indicators of Conditions ........................................72 viii. Renter Housing.............................................................................................81 ix. Renter Housing by Units per Structure and Mobile Homes .........................85 x. Renter Housing by Indicators of Conditions .................................................89 xi. Vacant Housing ............................................................................................97 xii. Housing Condition (Assessment Office).....................................................102 xiii. New Housing Construction.........................................................................105 xiv. Potential Infill Development Sites...............................................................107 B. Real Estate Market Conditions .............................................................................108 i. Housing Values and Rents.........................................................................108 ii. Assessment Trends....................................................................................117 iii. Recent Sales Activity..................................................................................119 iv. Estimated Affordability of Sales Housing ...................................................120 C. Evaluation of the Assisted Living Housing Market................................................124 i. Assisted Living Facilities and Personal Care Facilities ..............................125 ii. Inventory of Assisted Living Facilities and Personal Care Facilities in Fayette County ........................................................................................................126 iii. Demographic Overview of Households for Assisted Housing in Fayette County ........................................................................................................126 iv. Overview of Demand for Assisted Housing in Fayette County ..................127 D. Evaluation of Student Housing Market .................................................................128 E. Other Factors Influencing Housing .......................................................................128 i. Patch Communities and Urban vs. Rural Population .................................128