CIR1523 Stressor-Response Model for the Spotted Sea Trout (Cynoscion nebulosus)1 Frank J. Mazzotti, Leonard G. Pearlstine, Tomma Barnes, Stephen A. Bortone, Kevin Chartier, Alicia M. Weinstein, and Donald DeAngelis2 Introduction of aquatic systems. This includes a focus on water quantity and quality, flood protection, and ecological integrity. A key component in adaptive management of the Com- prehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) projects is evaluating alternative management plans. Regional hydro- C-43 West Basin Storage Reservoir logical and ecological models will be employed to evaluate Project restoration alternatives, and the results will be applied to The Caloosahatchee River (C-43) West Basin Storage Reser- modify management actions. voir project is an expedited CERP project and a component of a larger restoration effort for the Caloosahatchee River Southwest Florida Feasibility and estuary. The purpose of the project is to improve the Study timing, quantity, and quality of freshwater flows to the Caloosahatchee River estuary. The project includes an The Southwest Florida Feasibility Study (SWFFS) is a above-ground reservoir with a total storage capacity of component of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration approximately 197 million cubic meters (160,000 acre-feet) Plan (CERP). The SWFFS is an independent but integrated and will be located in the C-43 Basin in Hendry, Glades, implementation plan for CERP projects that was initiated or Lee County. The initial design of the reservoir assumed in recognition that some water resource issues (needs, 8,094 hectares (20,000 acres) with water levels fluctuating problems, and opportunities) in Southwest Florida were not up to 2.4 meters (8 feet) above grade. The final size, depth, being addressed directly by CERP. The SWFFS identifies, and configuration of this facility will be determined evaluates, and compares alternatives that address those through more detailed planning and design. additional water resource issues in Southwest Florida. An adaptive assessment strategy is being developed that will create a system-wide monitoring program to measure and Objective interpret ecosystem responses. The SWFFS provides an The purpose of this stressor-response model for the essential framework to address the health and sustainability C-43 West Basin Storage Reservoir project and the Southwest Florida Feasibility Study is to portray species 1. This document is CIR1523, one of a series of the Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Department, UF/IFAS Extension. Original publication date January 2008. Reviewed June 2017. Visit the EDIS website at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu. 2. Frank J. Mazzotti, associate professor; Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, UF/IFAS Fort Lauderdale REC; Leonard Pearlstine, assistant scientist, UF/IFAS FLREC; Tomma Barnes, PBS and J, Metairie, LA; Stephen A. Bortone, marine research scientist and director, Marine Laboratory at the Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation; Kevin Chartier, GIS programmer, UF/IFAS FLREC; Alicia M.Weinstein, wildlife research assistant, UF/IFAS FLREC; and Donald DeAngelis, landscape ecologist, USGS, University of Miami; UF/IFAS Extension, Gainesville, FL 32611. The Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (IFAS) is an Equal Opportunity Institution authorized to provide research, educational information and other services only to individuals and institutions that function with non-discrimination with respect to race, creed, color, religion, age, disability, sex, sexual orientation, marital status, national origin, political opinions or affiliations. For more information on obtaining other UF/IFAS Extension publications, contact your county’s UF/IFAS Extension office. U.S. Department of Agriculture, UF/IFAS Extension Service, University of Florida, IFAS, Florida A & M University Cooperative Extension Program, and Boards of County Commissioners Cooperating. Nick T. Place, dean for UF/IFAS Extension. responses—both spatially and temporally—to changes in and/or simulated ecological properties of a study area. environmental variables resulting from restoration activi- Parameters for environmental requirements were defined ties. The intent of the model is not to simulate the life cycle based on existing literature, expert knowledge, and cur- of the species, but rather to estimate numbers of habitat rently available field data. Values were adjusted for local units to serve as a relative basis for comparing management conditions and then used to create individual suitability alternatives. Four hydrologic scenarios are compared: cur- indices that drive the model. Suitability values for the rent conditions, 2050-without-CERP, 2050-with-CERP, and individual parameters and for the calculated HSI are target-flow conditions. Each scenario is modeled for wet, represented from zero (unfit habitat) to one (ideal habitat), dry, and normal rainfall years. The spotted seatrout model and are presented in line graphs below (Figure 1, Figure 2, is one of a suite of Caloosahatchee estuary models, includ- Figure 3, Figure 4b). The HSI model uses a formula (see ing tape grass (Vallisneria), Seagrass (Halodule/Thalassia), HSI Formula section below) to calculate habitat suitability blue crab, and eastern oyster, which are being considered monthly as the weighted geometric mean of the specific together for restoration plan evaluation. The other models environmental variables. Because the geometric mean is are being documented in other reports. derived from the product of the variables rather than the sum (as in the arithmetic mean), it has the property that Forecasting Models if any of the individual variables are unsuitable for species success (i.e., the value of the variable is zero) then the entire Forecasting models bring together data resulting from index goes to zero. research and monitoring studies within ecosystems and place them into an adaptive management framework for The HSI model is incorporated into a geographic informa- evaluation of alternative plans. There are two principle ways tion system (GIS) to portray habitat suitability values to structure adaptive management: (1) passive, by which spatially and temporally across systems of the study area. policy decisions are made based on a forecasting model and The values vary spatially according to stressor levels the model is revised as monitoring data become available, throughout the estuary and temporally as a result of cycling and (2) active, by which management activities are imple- of important stressor inputs, such as water temperature and mented through statistically valid experimental design to salinity. Areas predicted to be suitable and those predicted understand better how and why natural systems respond to to be less suitable or disturbed should be targeted for management (Wilhere 2002). additional sampling as part of the model validation and adaptive management process. In an integrated approach that includes both passive and active adaptive management, a forecasting model simulates Species selected for modeling (focal species) are ecologi- system response and is validated by monitoring programs cally, recreationally or economically important and have a to measure actual system response (Barnes and Mazzotti well-established linkage to stressors of management inter- 2005). Monitoring can then provide information as a est. They may also make good focal species because they passive adaptive management tool for recalibration of the engage the public in caring about the outcome of restora- forecasting model. Directed research, driven by model tion projects. The HSI models were developed by choosing uncertainties, is an active adaptive management strategy for specific life stages of each species with the most limited learning and reducing uncertainties in the model (Ogden et or restricted range of suitable conditions, to capture the al. 2003; Barnes and Mazzotti 2005). highest sensitivities of the organisms to the environmental changes associated with planned restoration activities. The forecasting models for the C-43 West Basin Storage Environmental parameters used in the model, and their Reservoir project and the Southwest Florida Feasibility sources, are listed in Table 1. Study consist of a set of stressor-response models (spe- cifically, habitat suitability index models) for individual species. Each model is applied to restoration alternatives Ecology of the Spotted Seatrout with the assumption that as stress levels on the ecosystem The spotted seatrout, Cynoscion nebulosus, is a member change for each alternative, so will extent and quality of of the Sciaenidae family of croakers and drums. It is an suitable habitat. important species because it is one of the few species that spends its entire life within the confines of a single Habitat Suitability Index Model estuarine system, and therefore can serve as a long-term Habitat suitability index (HSI) models relate specific indicator of estuarine conditions. The spotted seatrout environmental requirements of an organism to the actual occurs in all estuaries from North Carolina to Mexico along Stressor-Response Model for the Spotted Sea Trout (Cynoscion nebulosus) 2 the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. An added feature Therefore, the growth rate of each fish is essentially a of this species is that it is highly prized by both commercial permanent historical record that reflects the environmental and recreational fishers, and thus commands attention conditions of a specific estuary. among the general public. These