The Syrian opposition: Political analysis with original testimony from key figures By Michael Weiss and Hannah Stuart Additional research by Samuel Hunter ©Copyright Henry Jackson Society, 2011 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 INTRODUCTION 4 BACKGROUND Syria at a glance 5 Timeline of the protests 7 PART ONE – OPPOSITION IN SYRIA Who are the opposition? 14 Key regime & opposition figures 14 The National Initiative for Change 15 Syria Conference for Change: Antalya 18 The role of the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamists 18 Military defections: myth or reality? 18 Opposition voices on the ground – original interviews 19 PART TWO – FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT Perceptions of Western inaction 22 Assad and the ‘peace process’ 23 The Iranian-Syrian alliance 24 Turkey’s influence 24 CONCLUSION 25 APPENDIX: Full transcripts of original interviews 26 2 Executive Summary REGIME BRUTALITY Over the last three months, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime – including the security forces, the army and private militia – has been responsible for at least 1,100 killings, 4,000 injuries to men, women and children and 10,000 arbitrary detentions. Despite initial promises of reform, Assad shows no signs of relenting in his suppression of the opposition. Whole cities and surrounding areas remain under siege, with little or no access to water, electricity, communications and medical supplies. THE OPPOSITION Initially ad-hoc, the opposition movement has developed coherence and sophistication throughout the uprising, culminating in the creation of the National Initiative for Change (NIC). The NIC released a joint statement signed by 150 figures within and outside Syria, demonstrating a practical road-map for a democratic post-Assad Syria. The opposition is broadly pro-Western. Despite the regime claims to the contrary, the Islamist quotient among the opposition is very low. Protesters have decried regime propaganda that they are controlled by ‘Salafis’ and have denounced Iranian and Russian meddling by burning their national flags in the streets. The revolution is not characterised by sectarianism. Desire for freedom from Assad and the co-ordination of oppositionists both inside and outside of Syria has, for now, quelled the country’s sectarian differences. INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT Responses from the West, Arab states and the international community as a whole have been muted, especially in comparison to international reaction to Egypt and Libya. The opposition believes that increased condemnation from the United States, the European Union and the United Nations would encourage the Syrian Army to defect from the regime THE IRANIAN-SYRIAN ALLIANCE Iranian influence in Assad’s suppression of the Syrian revolution is an accepted fact by both the United States government and the opposition. Commercial and military ties between Iran and Syria have never been stronger. The opposition are fiercely anti-Hezbollah. After Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iranian- sponsored Lebanese terrorist organisation, pledged his support for Assad’s regime, protesters burned his picture in the streets. ASSAD AND THE ‘PEACE PROCESS’ The revolution has been generally free of anti-Israel sentiment. The exception – cited by several domestic oppositionists we spoke with – is the perception that the West acquiesces to Assad’s brutality because of its belief in Syria’s strategic role in brokering Israel- Palestine peace. TURKEY’S INFLUENCE Turkey and Syria have grown commercially and militarily closer over the past three years. The Turkish Prime Minister has only said that he is ‘quite concerned and annoyed’ by Assad’s crackdown. This is in stark contrast to his calls for regime change in Egypt and Libya, where Turkish troops are currently helping to enforce the Nato-led no-fly zone. Despite this lack of direct support, between 300 and 400 Syrian oppositionists met for a three-day conference in in the Turkish resort of Antalya at the end of May. The goal of the meeting was to produce some form of logistical and legal support for the revolutionaries. RECOMMENDATIONS Western governments are uniquely placed to support Syrian aspirations for freedom, and simultaneously de-stabilise Iranian influence in the region and transform an anti-Western regime into a key strategic ally. They should take the following steps: RHETORICAL SUPPORT The US, UK and the EU must call for the immediate resignation of Bashar al-Assad from power, along with his inner circle. The UN Security Council should pass a resolution condemning Assad’s violence and demanding his immediate resignation. PRACTICAL SUPPORT The US and the UK should work closely with the opposition umbrella group, the National Initiative for Change (NIC), to help establish a transitional council in Syria that can be recognised by the international community. The US and the UK should provide the opposition with greater material aid, in particular encrypted laptops and satellite phones and SIM cards in order to withstand the regime’s media blackouts and continue the uninterrupted documentation of regime atrocities and human rights abuses MILITARY SUPPORT The Syrian opposition pins its hopes on turning the Syrian Army over to its side and then serve as a caretaker government in the transition to democracy. The US and UK ought to use regional intelligence assets to persuade or entice sympathetic Syrian officers to defect. The Syrian opposition is not yet calling for military intervention but this option should be seriously considered by the US, UK and Nato and preparations should be made in the event that this transpires. 3 INTRODUCTION Three months into the uprising in Syria, there is little sign of either side backing down. The authoritarian President Bashar al-Assad continues to violently suppress demonstrations by his own people (despite condemnation from the international community) while the opposition – now more coherent than ever – has made it clear that the people will accept nothing less than his removal from power. Assad’s regime – including the security forces, the army and private militia – are responsible for at least 1,100 killings and 4,000 injuries to men, women and children. Entire communities in and around the cities of Deraa and Homs and elsewhere remain under siege, with little or no access to water, electricity, communications and medical supplies. Despite this state-sponsored violence, ordinary Syrians continue to defy the regime by protesting in their thousands. Chants such as ‘the people want to topple the regime’ can be heard across the country by members of all sects of Syrian society. The desire for freedom from Assad and the co-ordination of oppositionists both inside and outside of Syria has, for now, quelled the country’s sectarian differences. Western media and policy-makers have been slow to react to events in Syria in contrast to their handling of the uprisings in Egypt or Libya. Little is known of the Syrian opposition; specifically its organisation, ideology and strategy for transitioning from dictatorship to democracy. Assad’s regime continues to prohibit free movement of journalists, making accurate information difficult to obtain. Nevertheless, The Henry Jackson Society has obtained exclusive interviews with opposition figures in the urban centres of the Syrian revolution: Deraa, Damascus, Douma, the Al-Tall District, Hama and Homs. We have also interviewed two key Western spokespersons of the opposition, Ammar Abdulhamid, a Maryland-based spokesperson, and Radwan Ziadeh, author of the statement by the National Initiative for Change (NIC), the most coherent template for what Syria ought to become if the revolution succeeds produced thus far. This briefing provides an overview of the uprising – namely the protests and resultant violence and casualty figures – and provides unique insight into the situation on the ground in Syria. It also examines geopolitical calculations relevant to Western policy in the region and concludes with policy prescriptions for Western governments. A boy holds up a placard during an anti-government protest in Baniyas – AP Syrian protestors call for UN condemnation of Assad’s violence. – Reuters 4 BACKGROUND – SYRIA: AT A GLANCE The Syrian Arab Republic came into being in 1961, after Syria broke away from the United Arab Republic which it had joined with Egypt in 1958. Syria is a predominantly Arab nation with a small Kurdish and Armenian minority. It is overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim (74%) in religious orientation; 14% are Alawite Muslim; Shia and Druze minorities make up 2%; and various Christian denominations make up 10-12%. There is also a very small Jewish population centered in Damascus, Qamishly and Aleppo. The UN Human Development Index, which measures health, education and income, ranks the country 111 out of 169 with comparable data, concluding that Syria is below regional average for human development.1 Total population: 22,500,000 approx. (61% is young or middle-aged, 15-64 years old) Population below poverty line: 11.9% Unemployment rate: 8.3% (94th most jobless country worldwide) National literacy rate: high (estimates vary 79.6% – 84.7%) Total internet users nationally: low (4.469 million, 17.3 per 100 people) POWER IN SYRIA Power is held disproportionately by the country’s Alawite religious-tribal minority elites, who dominate the ruling Syrian Ba’ath Party and the military. Syria has been controlled by the Assad family for the last four decades: Hafez al-Assad, a former Air Force lieutenant and member of the Syrian Ba’ath Party seized power in a bloodless coup in 1970, and was succeeded after his death in 2000 by the current President Bashar al-Assad. Hafez al-Assad served as Defence Minister in 1967 when Syria lost the Golan Heights to Israel in the Six-Day War. His rule was characterized by strong ant-Israeli actions abroad and brutal domestic oppression at home, most notably, the Hama massacre in 1982, in which tens of thousands are said to have been killed. With the succession of Bashar al-Assad, Syria saw the beginnings of reform, as many political prisoners were released, but substantial change has yet to materialize.