Malvern Hills Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2019 Malvern Hills District Council Final Report September 2019 Main Contact: Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2019 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Malvern Hills Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2019 Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 8 Housing market context ................................................................................................... 8 Dwelling need, type and mix .......................................................................................... 10 The needs of other groups ............................................................................................. 11 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 12 Background and objectives ............................................................................................. 12 Government policy and guidance ................................................................................... 12 Definitions ....................................................................................................................... 14 Geography ...................................................................................................................... 15 Research methodology ................................................................................................... 19 Report structure ............................................................................................................. 19 2. Policy and strategic review ............................................................................................. 20 National context ............................................................................................................. 20 Strategic context ............................................................................................................. 20 Local context ................................................................................................................... 21 Neighbourhood Development Plans .............................................................................. 22 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 22 3. Understanding District Housing Market Dynamics ........................................................ 23 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 23 House price trends .......................................................................................................... 23 Relative affordability ...................................................................................................... 28 Household migration ...................................................................................................... 29 Travel to work trends ..................................................................................................... 30 Housing market area ...................................................................................................... 32 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 32 4. Housing stock review ...................................................................................................... 33 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 33 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure ...................... 33 Housing development (past and planned) ..................................................................... 40 Housing tenure ............................................................................................................... 42 The owner-occupied sector ............................................................................................ 44 The private rented sector ............................................................................................... 45 Affordable Housing ......................................................................................................... 49 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 50 5. Affordable housing need and the needs of different groups ......................................... 51 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 51 September 2019 Malvern Hills Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2019 Page | 3 Affordable Housing Needs Assessment .......................................................................... 52 Size of affordable dwellings ............................................................................................ 53 Tenure split ..................................................................................................................... 54 Relative affordability of housing tenure options ........................................................... 54 Household Groups with specific housing needs ............................................................. 61 Families with children ..................................................................................................... 62 Housing for older people ................................................................................................ 63 People with disabilities ................................................................................................... 67 Service families ............................................................................................................... 74 Students .......................................................................................................................... 74 Overcrowding/under-occupancy .................................................................................... 76 Summary ......................................................................................................................... 76 6. Housing need in Malvern Hills District ........................................................................... 78 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 78 Establishing housing need .............................................................................................. 78 Step 1: Setting the baseline ............................................................................................ 79 Step 2: An adjustment to take account of affordability ................................................. 80 Step 3: Capping the level of any increase ....................................................................... 81 Housing need using the standard methodology ............................................................ 82 Potential adjustments to the evidence base .................................................................. 82 Testing the standard methodology assumptions ........................................................... 83 7. Dwelling type and mix .................................................................................................... 86 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 86 Starting points ................................................................................................................ 86 Household aspirations and expectations ....................................................................... 92 Concluding comments .................................................................................................... 92 8. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues .......................................................................... 93 Housing need 2021-2031 according to the standard method ....................................... 93 Affordable housing need ................................................................................................ 93 Meeting the needs of older people and those with disabilities ..................................... 93 Final comments .............................................................................................................. 94 List of Technical Appendices ....................................................................................................... 95 Technical Appendix A: policy review .......................................................................................... 96 Technical Appendix B: Detailed Affordable Housing Need Calculations .................................. 105 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 105 Stage 1: Current households in affordable housing need ........................................... 107 Stage 2: Newly-arising affordable need ...................................................................... 108 Stage 3: Affordable housing supply ............................................................................