A Measured US Strategy for the New Africa J. Peter Pham Foreword by James L. Jones, Jr. Cover art: Detail from Battle of Adwa, 1896 Unsigned Ethiopian artist, 1906 Paint on canvas Gift of the Honorable Hoffman Philip, first minister resident and consul general in Ethiopia Department of Anthropology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution E261845 Used with permission The Battle of Adwa was fought on March 1, 1896, between Ethiopia and Italy near the town of Adwa, in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia. It was the climactic battle of the First Italo-Ethiopian War. This painting chronicles the ferocity of the battle, in which Ethiopians defeated the Italian invaders. In the upper right, Ethiopian Emperor Menelik II commands his forces. In the lower left is Queen Taitu. The victory of Ethiopian forces in this critical battle ensured that the country, alone of pre-colonial African states, retained its independence amid the “scramble for Africa” in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. A Measured US Strategy for the New Africa Atlantic Council Strategy Paper No. 7 © 2016 The Atlantic Council of the United States. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Atlantic Council, except in the case of brief quotations in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. Please direct inquiries to: Atlantic Council 1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor Washington, DC 20005 ISBN: 978-1-61977-452-0 This report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The authors are solely responsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council, its partners, and funders do not determine, nor do they necessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s particular conclusions. December 2016 Atlantic Council Strategy Papers Editorial Board Executive Editors Mr. Frederick Kempe Dr. Alexander V. Mirtchev Editor-in-Chief Mr. Barry Pavel Managing Editor Dr. Daniel Chiu Table of Contents Foreword ............................................................................ i Executive Summary ......................................................... iii Introduction .......................................................................1 Differing African Geopolitical Realities .............................7 Pre-Westphalian Africa .......................................................... 8 Westphalian Africa ................................................................. 9 Westphalia-Plus Africa ......................................................... 11 Global Interests .................................................................... 13 Elements of a Measured Strategy ...................................15 Earned Engagement ............................................................. 16 More Realistic Expectations ................................................ 20 Effective Partners and Partnerships ................................... 22 Flexible Structures ................................................................ 23 Implementing the Strategy for the New Africa ...............25 Conclusion ......................................................................29 Endnotes .........................................................................31 About the Author .............................................................37 Acknowledgments ..........................................................37 A MEASURED US STRATEGY FOR THE NEW AFRICA Foreword Turmoil in traditional geopolitical hotspots—Europe, Russia, the Levant, and Asia—has distracted the United States from the numerous opportunities and challenges across the Atlantic in Africa. Over the last decade, Africa has celebrated economic growth and new levels of political and economic engagement with the United States. But the continent faces many challenges to its continued economic development, security, and governance. In this latest Atlantic Council Strategy Paper, Atlantic Council Vice President and Africa Center Director Dr. J. Peter Pham persuasively argues that the United States needs to modernize its relations with a changing Africa to best engage a new range of actors and circumstances. The impact of globalization on international politics has become increasingly clear, particularly in the Middle East, Europe, and the United States. But the vast changes across Africa have perhaps been less appreciated. Since the beginning of the millennium, Africa’s rising prosperity has been remarkable and its societies reshaped by rising urbanization and new technologies. Yet its future is challenged by a dramatic increase in the youth population, uneven growth, and violent spoilers wishing to turn back the tide of modernization. Moreover, governance has failed to keep step with public needs and rapid change in too many countries; indeed, poor governance is one of the major impediments to economic growth and political development. Pham rightly points out that the failure of governance in key areas across the African continent poses one of the pre-eminent foreign policy challenges for the United States and its transatlantic allies. Through hard lessons elsewhere in the world, the United States has learned that a modern foreign policy strategy must address security, good governance, and economic prosperity holistically. This paper correctly argues that the United States must engage Africa through a whole-of-society approach which transcends government-to-government relations and leverages the contributions of civil society and business. By doing so, the United States stands the best chance of not only advancing its interests—strategic and commercial—but also of promoting its values of rule of law, democracy, and good governance. If done successfully, Pham’s model for a measured approach could serve as a template for a modernized American foreign policy in an era of disruptive change. i ATLANTIC COUNCIL STRATEGY PAPER No. 7 Pham’s paper makes a valuable contribution not only to the Africa policy debate, but also to the question of how the United States can adapt its 20th century diplomatic toolkit for the challenges and opportunities of the coming decades. General James L. Jones, Jr., USMC (Ret.) Chairman, Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, Atlantic Council Former National Security Advisor to the President Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe and Commander, US European Command 32nd Commandant of the United States Marine Corps ii A MEASURED US STRATEGY FOR THE NEW AFRICA Executive Summary frica’s story is increasingly one of rising geopolitical importance and burgeoning economic dynamism—the latter driven, in part, by political reform and improvements in governance. The continent is home to some of the fastest-growing economies Ain the world and vast natural resources. Fifty years after a majority of them achieved their independence, many African countries have become full-fledged democracies, with regular peaceful transfers of power between governing parties and their opposition. But, there are also very real security, humanitarian, and developmental challenges that remain to be confronted, and which the United States has a stake in helping to tackle, not least because it is in its own national interest to do so. To complicate matters, some African countries are still grappling with the conception of “statehood,” since, in many cases, the state was an imposition of European colonial powers in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Taking into account Africa’s differing geopolitical realities, as well as US objectives on the continent, this paper argues that a measured US strategy for Africa is based on the following principles: • Earned engagement: The United States should shift away from trying to pick the “right” winners in political disputes internal to African countries, and toward engaging those who prove themselves to be good bets by their effectiveness and, consequently, the legitimacy they are accorded by their own people. This approach puts the onus squarely on Africans themselves to create governance structures that are appropriate to their circumstances and whose legitimacy they accept, without prejudice from the United States or other outside actors. Accordingly, the United States should refrain from conferring de jure recognition on states absent such effective sovereignty. • More realistic expectations: For much of the history of US engagement in Africa, the United States has operated with overly optimistic notions of what African partners are capable of and willing to do. That must change. Recent global and domestic fiscal crises, combined with the bitter partisan divide, have created a political climate―within both the United States and partners like the European Union―in which major increases in foreign aid are unlikely to be politically viable. Moreover, as elsewhere, albeit with perhaps even more pronounced effect, governments themselves are becoming less influential inside Africa with respect to what they can do and more limited in their relative capacity, leaving ample scope for the private sector. Creative ways will have iii ATLANTIC COUNCIL STRATEGY PAPER No. 7 to be found to encourage business to be more engaged with efforts to develop and modernize Africa’s physical and legal infrastructure—helping to consolidate important security gains in the process. • Effective partners and partnerships: It is imperative that the United States develop “special”