Update Briefing Asia Briefing N°136 Jakarta/Brussels, 11 April 2012 Reform in Myanmar: One Year On mar hosts the South East Asia Games in 2013 and takes I. OVERVIEW over the chairmanship of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2014. One year into the new semi-civilian government, Myanmar has implemented a wide-ranging set of reforms as it em- Reforming the economy is another major issue. While vital barks on a remarkable top-down transition from five dec- and long overdue, there is a risk that making major policy ades of authoritarian rule. In an address to the nation on 1 changes in a context of unreliable data and weak econom- March 2012 marking his first year in office, President Thein ic institutions could create unintended economic shocks. Sein made clear that the goal was to introduce “genuine Given the high levels of impoverishment and vulnerabil- democracy” and that there was still much more to be done. ity, even a relatively minor shock has the potential to have This ambitious agenda includes further democratic reform, a major impact on livelihoods. At a time when expectations healing bitter wounds of the past, rebuilding the economy are running high, and authoritarian controls on the popu- and ensuring the rule of law, as well as respecting ethnic lation have been loosened, there would be a potential for diversity and equality. The changes are real, but the chal- unrest. lenges are complex and numerous. To consolidate and build on what has been achieved and increase the likeli- A third challenge is consolidating peace in ethnic areas. hood that benefits flow to all its citizens, Myanmar needs All but one of the ethnic armed groups have signed pre- the international community to come closer, seeking op- liminary ceasefires with the government, a major achieve- portunities for greater engagement rather than more rea- ment. Nevertheless, a sustainable peace will require a lot sons why sanctions should be sustained. more work. No deal has yet been reached with one of the largest groups, the Kachin Independence Organisation, and The by-elections held on 1 April represent a political wa- serious clashes continue. The ceasefire agreements with the tershed. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her Na- other groups remain fragile and could unravel unless pro- tional League for Democracy returned to the formal polit- gress is made in addressing the underlying political griev- ical process and secured a landslide victory. Forty-three ances. These are hugely difficult tasks, but a return to war NLD representatives, including Aung San Suu Kyi herself, in the borderlands has the potential to do great damage to will now take up their seats in the national legislature. The the reform process and would be an enormous impediment NLD has become the largest opposition party. This does to rebuilding the economy. not alter the balance of power, given that only a small per- centage of seats were contested, but it is of major symbolic The reforms that have taken place appear not to have been importance, as it has the potential to inject greater dyna- driven primarily by external pressure, but rather by inter- mism into political life. The extent of the NLD victory may nal considerations. Now that major steps of the kind long have alarmed some in the political establishment. called for by the West are being taken, it is incumbent on the international community and multilateral institutions The speed and extent of these reforms has raised questions to help ensure their success. There is much that the West, about how sustainable the process is. Any such program in particular, can do to provide political support, as well as of major political change must inevitably face serious much-needed advice and technical assistance. As the tests, but the broad consensus among the political elite on European Union (EU) approaches a key decision point in the need for fundamental change means that the risk of a late April on whether to renew sanctions on Myanmar, the reversal appears low; there is no coherent group of disaf- value of the coercive measures must be reconsidered. fected individuals with the power to undo the process. The Myanmar government has gone extraordinarily far in Yet, there are other serious challenges. There is limited putting aside old prejudices and reaching out to even the institutional and technical capacity to carry out detailed most strident of its critics domestically and internationally. policy formulations and to implement some of the reform The West should now make a commensurate effort to forge measures being adopted. This is acting as a brake on the a new partnership. With the long-awaited reforms under- process and means that citizens are slow to see the full im- way, there is no valid rationale for keeping sanctions in pact of some of the changes. The pressures on the system place. To do so would likely damage the process: under- are only likely to increase in the next two years as Myan- Reform in Myanmar: One Year On Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°136, 11 April 2012 Page 2 mining reformers and emboldening more conservative ele- cussions with government and been able to report from the ments, rather than keeping up the pressure for further change. country for the first time. In a series of amnesties over the course of the year, the 3 II. REFORMS TO DATE majority of political prisoners have been released. The largest release, of some 300 including all remaining high- profile dissidents, took place on 13 January 2012. The tim- The past twelve months has seen remarkably rapid chang- ing of this release was intended in part to allow imprisoned es. They should not be seen as a series of individual steps, dissidents to be involved in the political process leading but rather as part of a concerted effort by the president, up to the by-elections.4 Some competed for seats on 1 April government and legislatures to put Myanmar on a new path under an NLD banner.5 towards democracy, peace and greater prosperity. Unlike in the past when released political prisoners were 1. Political reconciliation subjected to intense scrutiny of their activities and faced social ostracism, those released over the last year have In his inaugural address in March 2011, the president been able to resume political activities, travel abroad, and reached out to long-time critics of the former military re- lead relatively normal lives. The most prominent dissidents gime, urging that differences be put aside in order to work released in this period, the ‘88-generation student leaders, together for the good of the country. He followed up with were struck by the contrast with their last release eight a series of concrete steps. In August 2011, he met with op- years ago: this time, unlike then, they were mobbed by do- position leader Aung San Suu Kyi and convinced her of mestic journalists on arrival in Yangon after their release, his genuine desire to bring positive change to Myanmar.1 and they have been able to open an office and conduct In order to facilitate her return to the formal political pro- political activities, including speaking tours and public cess, along with her National League for Democracy (NLD), speeches, without harassment. One of the student leaders electoral legislation was amended to remove certain pro- recounted how, within a few weeks of being released from visions, including the prohibition on prison inmates from prison, he was among five prominent individuals invited being members of political parties.2 On 5 January 2012, by a leading Myanmar news journal to present prizes at the NLD became a legally registered political party, with an award ceremony; one of his fellow presenters was the Suu Kyi as its chairperson. She and other members took son of one of the most powerful retired generals in the part in the by-elections on 1 April, winning 43 out of 45 country.6 seats (see Section IV below). The most visible example of political reconciliation is the The president also extended an invitation for exiles to re- image of Aung San Suu Kyi that is now ubiquitous – on turn home. In recent months, a series of high-profile ac- the streets of Yangon, in newspapers and magazines, in tivists living abroad have returned – mostly for visits, but shops, on taxis and attached to private vehicles. People in some permanently. These have included Harn Yawnghwe, Myanmar were struck by her recent broadcasts on national son of Myanmar’s first president and head of the Euro- television: there was the most potent voice of opposition Burma Office; members of the Thailand-based Vahu De- to military rule, seated in a government studio in front of velopment Institute, several of whom had been senior mem- the iconic “fighting peacock” flag of the NLD, calling for bers of an armed student rebel group; the editors of the three most prominent exiled media organisations (Demo- cratic Voice of Burma, Mizzima and Irrawaddy), who were 3 able to discuss with government the possibility of operat- There could be up to 300 political prisoners remaining in deten- tion, although the number is uncertain: informal lists maintained ing legally in the country; representatives of international by activists are not fully reliable, and some included on such lists Myanmar-language radio stations (broadcast by the BBC, may have actually been guilty of a criminal offence – or in the Voice of America and Radio Free Asia) have also had dis- case of ethnic prisoners, of violent offences in the context of the armed insurgency. Resolving this issue will require a transpar- ent process for credibly reviewing cases on an individual basis.