Public Polling Analysis August 15th, 2017 Table of Contents I. National Environment ........................................... 2 Direction of the Country Issue Importance Trump Favorability Trump Job Approval II. Immigration Reform Bill ........................................ 8 Politico/ Morning Consult Analysis: The Economist/ YouGov Analysis: III. Tax Reform Bill .................................................... 11 A poll conducted by Speaker Ryan’s American Action Network National Environment Direction of the Country The “spread” between right direction and wrong track has declined slightly over the past several weeks. Notice the decline in the Rasmussen Reports from -28 to -20 in the course of one week. Direction of the United States Right Wrong Direction Track Spread Monmouth Univ. Poll 32% 58% -26 August 10-14, 2017 N=706 Registered Voters Rasmussen Reports 36% 56% -20 August 6-10, 2017 N=2500 Likely Voters Economist/ YouGov 31% 57% -26 August 6-8, 2017 N=1303 Registered Voters Reuters/ Ipsos 27% 59% -32 August 4-8, 2017 N=1671 Adults Rasmussen Reports 32% 60% -28 July 30 – August 3, 2017 N=2500 Likely Voters Morning Consult/ Politico 36% 64% -28 August 3-6, 2017 N=1992 Registered Voters _____________________________________________________________________________________________ NATIONAL POLLING MEMO, AUGUST 15, 2017 2 Issue Importance Health care continues to remain a top issue along with Economic and National Security issues. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today? Reuters/ Ipsos Public Affairs, August 4-8, 2017, n=1671 Adults Total Healthcare 22% Terrorism/ Terrorist Attacks 12% Economy Generally 10% Immigration 9% Morality 8% Crime 7% Unemployment/ Lack of Jobs 5% War/ Foreign Conflicts 5% Education 5% Environment 5% Energy Issues 1% Don’t Know 3% Other 9% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? POLITICO / Morning Consult, August 3-6, 2017. n=1992 Registered Voters Total Economic Issues 28% Health Care issues 23% Security Issues 18% Senior's Issues 15% Education Issues 6% Women’s Issues 4% Energy Issues 4% Other 3% _____________________________________________________________________________________________ NATIONAL POLLING MEMO, AUGUST 15, 2017 3 Which of these are the most important issue for you? The Economist / YouGov, August 6-8, 2017, N=1303 Registered Voters Total Health care 19% Social Security 16% The Economy 12% Terrorism 9% Immigration 6% The Environment 6% Education 6% Taxes 5% Medicare 5% The Budget Deficit 4% Abortion 4% Gun Control 3% Gay Rights 2% The War in Afghanistan 1% Foreign Policy 1% _____________________________________________________________________________________________ NATIONAL POLLING MEMO, AUGUST 15, 2017 4 Trump Favorability The Economist/YouGov Poll has Donald Trump’s favorable ratings up 3 points since the end of July, and is now at 43%. Among Republicans, Trump’s favorability rating is at 79%. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump? The Economist / YouGov, August 6-8, 2017. n=1303 Registered Voters Total Favorable 43% Unfavorable 53% Never Heard of 4% Please indicate if you have a Favorable or Unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump. POLITICO/ Morning Consult, August 3-6, 2017. n=1992 Registered Voters Total Favorable 41% Unfavorable 53% Never Heard of 6% Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? Quinnipiac, July 27 – August 1, 2017. n=1125 Registered Voters Total Favorable 34% Unfavorable 61% Haven’t Heard Enough 2% _____________________________________________________________________________________________ NATIONAL POLLING MEMO, AUGUST 15, 2017 5 Trump Job Approval Trump’s Job Approval has improved since several of the polls released two weeks ago. Not only has the president’s job approval improved, there are several polls continuing to hover around 40% across public polls. Trump’s job approval in The Economist survey remains high (85%) among those who voted for him last year. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? (42% Approve) Rasmussen Reports, August 10-14, 2017, N=1500 Registered Voters Total Approve 42% Disapprove 57% Unsure 1% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? (42% Approve) Monmouth University, August 10-14, 2017, N=706 Registered Voters Total Approve 42% Disapprove 49% No opinion 9% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? (40% Approve) The Economist / YouGov, August 6-8, 2017, N=1303 Registered Voters Total Strongly Approve 21% Somewhat Approve 19% Somewhat Disapprove 12% Strongly Disapprove 42% Not Sure 7% _____________________________________________________________________________________________ NATIONAL POLLING MEMO, AUGUST 15, 2017 6 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? (40% Approve) POLITICO/Morning Consult, August 3-6, 2017. n=1992 Registered Voters Total Strongly Approve 18% Somewhat Approve 22% Somewhat Disapprove 14% Strongly Disapprove 41% Don't Know/ No Opinion 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? (38% Approve) CNN/ SSRS, August 3-6, 2017, N=1018 Adults Total Approve Strongly 24% Approve Moderately 14% Disapprove Moderately 9% Disapprove Strongly 47% Don’t Know/ Undecided/ Refused 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? (33% Approve) Quinnipiac, July 27 – August 1, 2017. n=1125 Registered Voters Total Strongly Approve 23% Somewhat Approve 10% Somewhat Disapprove 6% Strongly Disapprove 55% DK/NA 6% _____________________________________________________________________________________________ NATIONAL POLLING MEMO, AUGUST 15, 2017 7 Immigration Reform Bill Politico/ Morning Consult Analysis: A Majority of Registered Voters feel that immigration reform should be a top priority or important priority. When told about the provisions of the new Immigration reform bill, nearly half are in favor of Congress passing the bill. How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill… POLITICO/Morning Consult, August 3-6, 2017. n=1992 Registered Voters Total A top priority 36% An important, but lower priority 31% Not too important a priority 17% Should not be done 10% Don’t know/ No opinion 6% Do you believe each of the following should be a factor in determining who is allowed to legally immigrate to the United States, or not? POLITICO/Morning Consult, August 3-6, 2017. n=1992 Registered Voters Yes, Should No, should Don’t Know/ be a factor not be a No Opinion factor English-language ability 62% 29% 10% Ties to family members in the United States 60% 27% 13% Education 57% 31% 12% Record of professional or academic 54% 32% 15% achievement Need for government assistance 54% 33% 13% Entrepreneurial incentive 41% 40% 19% High-paying job offers 35% 45% 19% Age 24% 63% 13% _____________________________________________________________________________________________ NATIONAL POLLING MEMO, AUGUST 15, 2017 8 A Majority of Registered Voters support establishing a points system, limiting the number of refugees, and placing greater emphasis on an applicant’s job skills. Republican voters are considerably more supportive of each provision (see Republican percentages in red in the table below). As you may know, an immigration reform bill was recently introduced in Congress. Below are some provisions of the bill. Please indicate if you support or oppose each of the following… POLITICO/Morning Consult, August 3-6, 2017. n=1992 Registered Voters Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Support Support Oppose Oppose Establishing a "points system" that would 30% 31% 13% 14% award points based on criteria such as (45%) (34%) education, English-language ability, and prospective salary Limiting the number of refugees offered 35% 24% 16% 15% permanent residency (56%) (24%) Placing greater emphasis on an applicant's 28% 28% 19% 13% job skills over their ties to family members (40%) (31%) in the U.S. Reducing the number of legal immigrants 27% 21% 18% 21% by one-half over the next decade (45%) (28%) Eliminating a visa lottery, which makes 22% 23% 17% 15% visas available to people from countries (31%) (28%) with low rates of immigration to the U.S. Ending the ability for U.S. citizens and 23% 22% 19% 20% green card holders to petition to make (34%) (29%) extended family members lawful permanent residents And based on the above provisions, do you believe Congress should pass this bill, or not? POLITICO/Morning Consult, August 3-6, 2017. n=1992 Registered Voters Total Yes, should pass the bill 44% No, should NOT pass the bill 31% Don’t Know/ No Opinion 24% Note: 70% of Republicans think Congress should pass the bill. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ NATIONAL POLLING MEMO, AUGUST 15, 2017 9 The Economist/ YouGov Analysis: More than half of registered voters feel that illegal immigration is a serious problem. How serious of a problem is illegal immigration in the U.S. as a whole… The Economist/ YouGov, August 6-8, 2017, N=1303 Registered Voters Total Very Serious 35% Somewhat Serious 27% A minor problem 25% Not a problem 8% Not Sure 5% Do you support or oppose reducing LEGAL immigration by 50%? The Economist/ YouGov, August 6-8, 2017, N=1303 Registered Voters Total Support Strongly 22% Support Somewhat