U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy U.S. Weapons Nuclear The Council on Foreign Relations sponsors Independent Task Forces to assess issues of current and critical importance to U.S. foreign policy and provide policy- makers with concrete judgments and recommendations. Diverse in backgrounds and perspectives, Task Force members aim to reach a meaningful consensus on policy through private and nonpartisan deliberations. Once launched, Task Forces are in- dependent of CFR and solely responsible for the content of their reports. Task Force members are asked to join a consensus signifying that they endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group, though not necessarily every find- ing and recommendation.” Each Task Force member also has the option of putting forward additional or dissenting views. Members’ affiliations are listed for identifica- tion purposes only and do not imply institutional endorsement. Task Force observ- ers participate in discussions, but are not asked to join the consensus. Task Force Members Spencer P. Boyer Ronald F. Lehman II Center for American Progress Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Linton F. Brooks Jack F. Matlock Jr. Ashton B. Carter * Columbia University U.S. Department of Defense Franklin C. Miller John Deutch The Cohen Group Massachusetts Institute of Technology George R. Perkovich Charles D. Ferguson Carnegie Endowment Council on Foreign Relations for International Peace Michèle A. Flournoy * William J. Perry U.S. Department of Defense Stanford University John A. Gordon Mitchell B. Reiss U.S. Air Force (Ret.) College of William and Mary Lisa E. Gordon-Hagerty Lynn Rusten LEG Inc. Scott D. Sagan Independent Task Force Report No. 62 Eugene E. Habiger Stanford University University of Georgia Brent Scowcroft J. Bryan Hehir Forum for International Policy No. 62 Report Force Task Independent William J. Perry & Brent Scowcroft, Chairs Harvard University Benn Tannenbaum Charles D. Ferguson, Project Director Laura S. H. Holgate American Association Nuclear Threat Initiative for the Advancement of Science Frederick J. Iseman * Carter and Flournoy participated in the Task Force CI Capital Partners LLC under their affiliations with Harvard University and the Center for a New American Security respectively. Arnold Kanter As current administration officials, they have not been The Scowcroft Group asked to join the Task Force consensus. U.S. Nuclear www.cfr.org Weapons Policy U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy Independent Task Force Report No. 62 William J. Perry and Brent Scowcroft, Chairs Charles D. 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The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional position on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained in its publications are the sole responsibility of the author or authors. The Council on Foreign Relations sponsors Independent Task Forces to assess issues of current and critical importance to U.S. foreign policy and provide policymakers with concrete judgments and recommenda- tions. Diverse in backgrounds and perspectives, Task Force members aim to reach a meaningful consensus on policy through private and nonpartisan deliberations. Once launched, Task Forces are independent of CFR and solely responsible for the content of their reports. Task Force members are asked to join a consen- sus signifying that they endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group, though not necessarily every finding and recommendation.” Each Task Force member also has the option of putting forward additional or dissenting views. Members’ affiliations are listed for identification purposes only and do not imply institutional endorsement. Task Force observers participate in discussions, but are not asked to join the consensus. For further information about CFR or this Task Force, please write to the Council on Foreign Relations, Communications, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065, or call Communications at 212.434.9400. Visit CFR’s website at www.cfr.org. Copyright © 2009 by the Council on Foreign Relations®, Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form beyond the reproduction permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law Act (17 U.S.C. Sections 107 and 108) and excerpts by reviewers for the public press, without express written permission from the Council on Foreign Relations. For information, write to the Publications Office, Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065. This report is printed on paper certified by SmartWood to the standards of the Forest Stewardship Council, which promotes environmentally responsible, socially beneficial, and economically viable management of the world’s forests. Task Force Members Task Force members are asked to join a consensus signifying that they endorse “the general policy thrust and judgments reached by the group, though not necessarily every finding and recommendation.” They partic- ipate in the Task Force in their individual, not institutional, capacities. Spencer P. Boyer Arnold Kanter Linton F. Brooks Ronald F. Lehman II† Ashton B. Carter* Jack F. Matlock Jr. John Deutch† Franklin C. Miller Charles D. Ferguson George R. Perkovich† Michèle A. Flournoy* William J. Perry John A. Gordon Mitchell B. Reiss Lisa E. Gordon-Hagerty Lynn Rusten Eugene E. Habiger Scott D. Sagan† J. Bryan Hehir Brent Scowcroft Laura S.H. Holgate† Benn Tannenbaum† Frederick J. Iseman *Carter and Flournoy participated in the Task Force under their affiliations with Harvard University and the Center for a New American Security, respectively. As current administration officials, they have not been asked to join the Task Force consensus. †The individual has endorsed the report and submitted an additional or dissenting view. v Contents Foreword ix Chairs’ Preface xi Acknowledgments xvii Acronyms xix A Note on Definitions xxi Task Force Report 1 Executive Summary 3 The Need for a New Policy Assessment 7 The New Security Environment 22 U.S.-Russia Relations 29 U.S.-China Relations 42 Preventing Proliferation 46 Security Practices and the Future of the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Complex 67 Recommendations 81 Additional or Dissenting Views 97 Endnotes 101 Task Force Members 107 Task Force Observers 117 Foreword On his first trip to Europe as president, Barack Obama stood in Prague and reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to a world free of nuclear weap- ons: “As the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon, the United States has a moral responsibility to act. We cannot succeed in this endeavor alone, but we can lead it, we can start it.” President Obama also outlined a series of near-term steps to support this long-term goal, including the negotiation of a new nuclear arms reduction treaty with Russia and measures to strengthen the international nuclear nonprolif- eration regime. The question of whether and how to move toward the elimination of nuclear weapons has emerged as a central foreign policy issue. But that vision remains just a vision. President Obama himself has acknowl- edged that “this goal will not be reached quickly—perhaps not in my lifetime.” Meanwhile, there are critical questions to be addressed about nuclear weapons and policy. The Council on Foreign Relations convened an Independent Task Force to assess these questions of nuclear weapons and make recom- mendations concerning U.S. forces and policies. The report notes that in the near term nuclear weapons will remain a fundamental element of U.S. national security. For this reason it emphasizes the importance of maintaining a safe, secure, and reliable deterrent nuclear force and makes recommendations on this front. The report also offers measures to advance important goals such as preventing nuclear terrorism and bolstering the nuclear nonproliferation regime. The report notes that because of the impending Nonproliferation Treaty Review and the U.S. government’s nuclear posture