Executive Summary Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean Annual Report 1 JISAO Annual Report: April 1, 2012 – March 31, 2013 Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE Box 355672 Seattle, WA 98105-5672 206.685.6548 206.685.3397 fax [email protected] jisao.washington.edu Graphic Design – Robyn Ricks, Washington Sea Grant 2 Executive Summary Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 1 Climate Research and Impacts ................................................................................................................. 15 Environmental Chemistry ........................................................................................................................ 43 Marine Ecosystems ................................................................................................................................... 57 Ocean and Coastal Observations ............................................................................................................ 89 Protection and Restoration of Marine Resources .................................................................................. 97 Seafloor Processes ..................................................................................................................................103 Tsunamis Observations and Modeling .................................................................................................113 Appendices ..............................................................................................................................................115 Appendix 1 JISAO Senior Fellows and Council Members ...................................................................... 116 Appendix 2 Professional Awards, Funded Events and Visitors ............................................................. 117 Appendix 3 New Cooperative Agreement Awards Funded in 2012-2013 ........................................... 119 Appendix 4 Awards Funded Outside the Cooperative Agreement ...................................................... 120 Appendix 5 Graduate Students ............................................................................................................... 121 Appendix 6 Personnel Count ................................................................................................................... 122 Appendix 7 Postdoctoral Research Associates ....................................................................................... 123 Appendix 8 Publications Count ............................................................................................................... 124 Appendix 9 Publications – 2013 .............................................................................................................. 125 Appendix 10 Acronyms ............................................................................................................................ 136 3 JISAO Annual Report: April 1, 2012 – March 31, 2013 4 Executive Summary Executive Summary 1 JISAO Annual Report: April 1, 2012 – March 31, 2013 Introduction he Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and A short distance from the UW campus, NOAA’s Pacific TOcean (JISAO) at the University of Washington (UW) Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) serves as JISAO’s is a NOAA Cooperative Institute that is at the forefront of host laboratory. JISAO also works with the NOAA Alaska research in atmospheric, oceanic and fishery sciences. JISAO Fisheries Science Center (AFSC) and the Northwest Fisher- promotes interdisciplinary collaborations between UW and ies Science Center (NWFSC), among others. NOAA scientists under seven major themes: Organizationally, JISAO is a unit under the innovative UW 1. Climate research and impacts College of the Environment (CoEnv) whose mission includes the study of the earth’s land, water and atmospheric sys- 2. Environmental chemistry tems; the development and application of engineering and 3. Marine ecosystems technological advances; the impact of policy and human dimensions on the environment and natural resources’ 4. Ocean and coastal observations management. 5. Protection and restoration of marine resources In addition to the Science Highlights below, this Execu- 6. Seafloor processes tive Summary features a comprehensive look at JISAO’s Education and Outreach (E&O) program and an update on 7. Tsunami observations and modeling the financial and operations management of the Institute. The breadth of this research reflects the range of scientific Beyond this section are individual progress summaries for expertise represented at UW. JISAO’s unique collaborative each project funded by the NOAA Cooperative Agreement structure provides easy access to exceptional resources and in the past year, as well as appendices with additional infor- facilities at one of the nation’s preeminent institutions of mation as requested by the NOAA Performance Reporting higher education and research. Aligning well with NOAA’s guidance. goals and strategic plan, JISAO’s research, education and out- reach programs provide the ability to form strong collabora- tions and partnerships with NOAA, as well as with other local and national organizations. 2 Executive Summary Science Highlights Climate Research and Impacts While JISAO has a particular focus on the Pacific, there are considerable interests and expertise in other parts of the ISAO climate research, in globe. Recent work pertaining to the Atlantic Meridional Jcollaboration with NOAA Overturning Circulation (AMOC), focuses on the fidelity and other partners, spans with which it is represented in state of the art global climate a wide range of important models. The hindcast simulations from a new set of CMIP5 topics and phenomena, in- models that were developed for the upcoming 5th Assess- cluding: climate prediction; ment Report of the IPCC better match the observed proper- impacts of climate variabil- ties of the AMOC during the 20th century than the simula- ity and change; evaluation of tions from a previous generation of climate models. The water and energy cycles; and, new models simulate an overall weakening of the AMOC polar research. Following are during the 21st century in part due to changes in the fluxes a few examples that provide of freshwater out of the Arctic. Diagnosis of the mecha- a sampling of the scope and nisms responsible for this key driver of the global climate is diversity of this work. continuing. Even though a great deal of JISAO has productive Arctic research collaborations with research has been devoted to the El Niño-Southern Oscilla- NOAA scientists as well as with UW scientists in depart- tion (ENSO) phenomenon, the problem it presents has not ments across campus. One of the locations of special interest been solved. JISAO and NOAA scientists are currently work- is the Bering Strait. There appears to have been an increase ing on whether its character is liable to evolve in association as large as 50% in transports through the Bering Strait since with global climate change. Rigorous statistical analyses on 2001. Moreover, it has been found that direct measurements a long record of reliable weather observations from Darwin, are the only effective way to monitor the flows in this region Australia reveal the lack of a systematic long-term trend. (remote sensing is insufficient) and ultimately how much Perhaps more importantly, this work also demonstrates that heat and freshwater is entering the Arctic. This work is made long (multi-decadal) segments of this record appear to have possible through JISAO’s longstanding participation in the statistically significant trends when considered in isolation. Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic program This work represents a cautionary note in our abilities to (RUSALCA). discern signals from the noise in the climate system. The Old Weather project involves the creation of an online resource using crowd-sourcing to transcribe arctic weather data from historical ships’ logs going back 150 years. This data will eventually be used by scientists to construct Arctic climate history and study climate patterns from the past. The project has earned national attention. 3 JISAO Annual Report: April 1, 2012 – March 31, 2013 Environmental Chemistry Marine Ecosystems long the Washington-Or- roundfish fisheries of the Aegon-California conti- Geastern Bering Sea and nental margin, ocean acidifi- Aleutian Islands, as well as the cation, upwelling, biological Gulf of Alaska regions of the productivity, and respiration North Pacific, are the subject processes in subsurface waters of a project that is exploring are major contributors to the the impacts of implementing variability in dissolved inor- management strategies that ganic carbon (DIC) and pH. formally incorporate uncer- The persistence of corrosive tainty into the harvest control water on the continental shelf rules. These strategies include off Washington and Oregon a status-quo approach, meth- has been previously identified ods based on simple rules and could have profound eco- related to standing stocks, and logical consequences for ben- a more sophisticated approach thic and pelagic calcifying organisms such as mussels, oys- that accounts for uncertainty in harvest totals that constitute ters, abalone, echinoderms, and pteropods. During the late overfishing. This work represents an extension