DYNAMICS OF CONSTITUTIONALISM BETWEEN DEMOCRACY AND AUTHORITARIANISM AS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM by Erin C. McGrath BBA, University of Wisconsin—Madison, 2000 MPP, Central European University, 2005 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2015 i UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS This dissertation was presented by Erin C. McGrath It was defended on August 3, 2015 and approved by Naim Kapucu, Professor, University of Central Florida Müge Kökten-Finkel, Assistant Professor, GSPIA Paul J. Nelson, Associate Professor, GSPIA Dissertation Advisor: Louise K. Comfort, Professor, GSPIA ii DYNAMICS OF CONSTITUTIONALISM BETWEEN DEMOCRACY AND AUTHORITARIANISM AS A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM Erin C. McGrath, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2015 Copyright © by Erin C. McGrath 2015 iii ABSTRACT International democratization of authoritarian states has created a complex political dynamic pitting the goal of democratic diffusion against the objective of maintaining dictatorial power. By enacting legal reforms while episodically upholding rights or freedoms, amid repression, semi- authoritarian regimes generate diverse political grievances for obtaining constitutional rights and observations of those rights. Semi-authoritarian regimes have developed new tactics of manipulation of information exchange to address these grievances. This dissertation argues that to model semi-authoritarian constitutionalism, scholars must tackle complex multi-level interactions of aggrieved sub-national and state actors under influences of democratization. This dissertation develops a theory, and testable hypotheses, of semi-authoritarian resilience modeled as a complex adaptive system of systems (CASoS). This approach emphasizes concepts such as initial conditions, system structure, information exchange, and emergent phenomena. Using the logic of abduction, through iteration between theory and empirical evidence, a parsimonious explanation is inferred with policy implications for reexamining how democracy is fostered across borders on multiple levels. A multi-level, multi-dimensional representation of interactions across the systems demonstrates a non-monotonic relationship between mobilization, grievance, and repression over time in which a convergence of preferences for more immediate, partial democratic reforms lowers mobilization under semi-authoritarianism, but incentivizes some groups to mobilize outside the existing constitutional system. This dissertation’s pragmatic, multi-method research design explores implications of the developed model over time iv in the Ottoman Empire and Republic of Turkey, from 1876 to present, and also spatially in contemporary Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis, a theory of a constitutional semi-authoritarian dynamic of cycles through phases of repression, reform, and rights over time is developed as an emergent phenomenon of the CASoS. Citizens’ discourse over constitutional reform in public communication processes in Turkey is analyzed using Structural Topic Modeling to understand stealth authoritarian resilience through information exchange and control. Finally, the evolution of Kurdish groups making constitutional claims for self-determination and their cooperation across borders in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, under various influences of democratization, is analyzed as an inter-organizational network, demonstrating the adaptive mechanisms that can deepen sub-national grievances, prolonging conflict, but enhancing the resilience of constitutional semi-authoritarianism. v TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ................................................................................................................................... XV 1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 THE ARGUMENT....................................................................................................6 1.2 CONTRIBUTIONS OF A COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH......................10 1.3 ORGANIZATION OF THE DISSERTATION ...................................................13 1.3.1 Democratization and Authoritarianism Review ...................................... 13 1.3.2 Research Design and Methods ................................................................... 13 1.3.3 Complex Adaptive System of Systems Model .......................................... 14 1.3.4 System Structure and System Dynamics .................................................. 15 1.3.5 Information Exchange and Control .......................................................... 16 1.3.6 Initial Conditions and Emergent Phenomena .......................................... 17 1.3.7 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations .............................................. 18 2.0 DEMOCRATIZATION OF AUTHORITARIANISM ........................................... 20 2.1 EXISTING RESEARCH: STRATEGIC INSTITUTIONAL ISOMORPHISM23 2.1.1 Rise of Nominally-Democratic Institutions and Practices ...................... 24 2.1.2 Constitutional Change as Nominal Democratic Practice ........................ 26 2.2 AN ALTERNATIVE: SEMI-AUTHORITARIAN RESILIENCE ....................29 2.2.1 Addressing Challenges from Above .......................................................... 30 vi 2.2.2 Addressing Challenges From Within and Below ..................................... 33 3.0 RESEARCH DESIGN ............................................................................................... 40 3.1 ONTOLOGICAL APPROACH ............................................................................41 3.1.1 Concepts from Complexity Science ........................................................... 41 3.1.2 Principles of Pragmatism ........................................................................... 43 3.1.3 Theory Development: Explicit IAD Syntax, Implicit CASoS ................. 44 3.2 EMPIRICAL FOCUS AND MULTI-METHOD DESIGN .................................49 3.2.1 Heuristics and Hypotheses from QCA ...................................................... 54 3.2.2 Topic Modeling of Public Communication ............................................... 57 3.2.3 Comparative Analysis of Evolution of Opposition .................................. 60 4.0 A MODEL OF SEMI-AUTHORITARIAN RESILIENCE ................................... 63 4.1 INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS AND DEVELOPMENT SYNTAX ..................63 4.1.1 Actors, Roles, Actions, and Resources ...................................................... 64 4.1.2 Overt Constitutional Action Situation ...................................................... 70 4.1.3 Stealth Constitutional Action Situation .................................................... 71 4.2 INFERRING A MODEL OF SEMI-AUTHORITARIAN RESILIENCE ........73 4.2.1 CASoS of Semi-Authoritarian Resilience ................................................. 77 4.2.2 Overt and Stealth Authoritarian System Dynamics ................................ 79 4.2.3 Emergence of a Cyclic Dynamic ................................................................ 81 5.0 SYSTEM STRUCTURE: OTTOMAN AND TURKISH CONSTITUTIONALISM .......................................................................................................... 87 5.1 REGIMES AS POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONAL SYSTEMS ........................88 5.1.1 Operationalizing Political System Networks ............................................ 92 vii 5.2 HEURISTIC-GENERATING ANALYSIS, 1876-1981 .......................................97 5.2.1 Ottoman Constitutionalism, 1876-1908 .................................................. 102 5.2.2 First Constitutional Period....................................................................... 108 5.2.3 Second Constitutional Period................................................................... 114 5.3 GENERATING HEURISTICS ............................................................................120 6.0 SYSTEM DYNAMICS: REPUBLIC OF TURKEY, 1982 TO 2011 ................... 125 6.1 THE 1982 TURKISH CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC ................................126 6.1.1 Summary of Constitutional Changes of 1982 Constitution................... 129 6.2 QCA ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................131 6.3 QCA HYPOTHESIS-GENERATION, 1982-2011 .............................................135 6.3.1 De Jure Constitutional Commitments, 1982 to 2011 ............................. 138 6.3.2 De Facto Observations, 1982 to 2011 ...................................................... 138 6.3.3 Hypothesizing Semi-Authoritarian Constitutional Types, 1982-2011 . 141 6.3.4 Overt Authoritarianism with Weak and Sham Constitutions .............. 142 6.3.5 Stealth Authoritarian Constitutionalism ................................................ 143 7.0 PUBLIC COMMUNICATION IN THE AKP’S REFORM PROCESS ............. 146 7.1 TOPIC MODELING OF PUBLIC COMMUNICATION ................................147 7.2 AKP’S CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM, 2007 TO PRESENT ........................149 7.3 INTERPRETING RISK THROUGH LAW AND LANGUAGE .....................156 7.4 TOPIC MODELING AND THE STM ................................................................161 7.5 PUBLIC COMMUNICATION PROCESS DATA ............................................163 7.5.1 Level and Composition of Citizen Conflict ............................................