What is the best strategy to cope with future drought in small coastal communities in BC? Jordan Brown Caroline Chen Cristyn Edwards Sarah Marshall Mike Phillips Vivian Wong PLAN 525 - Assignment #2 School of Community and Regional Planning University of British Columbia November 12, 2015 1 Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3 Purpose ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Context ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Scope ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Objectives ........................................................................................................................................ 6 Figure 1: Objectives and sub-objectives ............................................................................................... 6 Performance Measures .................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 2: Performance measures and units .......................................................................................... 7 Alternatives ..................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 3: Alternatives table .................................................................................................................. 9 Strategies ...................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 4: Strategies table with alternatives ........................................................................................ 10 Assumptions and Uncertainties ............................................................................................... 12 Consequences ............................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 5: Consequence table .............................................................................................................. 14 Trade-offs ..................................................................................................................................... 15 Monitoring and Implementation ................................................................................................. 15 Case Studies .................................................................................................................................. 16 Tofino ........................................................................................................................................ 16 Sechelt ....................................................................................................................................... 16 Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 17 References .................................................................................................................................... 19 2 Introduction As a result of growing populations, high levels of water consumption, and the influence of climate change, periods of drought have become increasingly prevalent in British Columbia (BC). While the severity of drought varies throughout the province, the degree of resilience and policy response in each community varies as well. For small coastal municipalities, the significant impacts of drought have increased the incentives for water planning and policy creation. At this scale, drought has become an annual issue – one that produces a complex web of impacts, which endanger the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of these communities. Exacerbated by the common characteristics of growing water demands, the presence of few water sources, and a reliance on water-dependent industries, water scarcity can also increase susceptibility to natural disasters and economic loss. With limited resources to cope, it is imperative that these small municipalities create and implement innovative strategies to reduce the impacts of drought. Using a Structured Decision Making (SDM) process, this report will explore potential drought management strategies designed to alleviate the stress on water resources and reduce the vulnerability of communities to water shortages (Gregory, Failing, Hardstone, McDaniels, & Ohlson, 2012). The six strategies carry varying costs and impacts and rely on different means, put forth as a group of ‘alternatives,’ to mitigate or minimize the effects of drought in the future. This report recognizes that the adoption of any of these six strategies will greatly depend on the capabilities, geographic setting and financial resources of each community. Nevertheless, two case studies - Tofino and Sechelt - are considered in order to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of the strategies as applied in the targeted setting, in hopes of guiding municipalities to choose the strategy that best suits their needs today, while also addressing their needs in the future. Purpose The purpose of this report is to determine the best strategy to cope with future drought in small coastal communities in BC. In order to accomplish this, a preliminary understanding of the context was obtained by examining BC’s water use, water governance and climate trends. Further, a thorough review of existing drought and water management strategies was conducted in order to gain insight into what methods are currently used and where improvements are 3 needed. The following experts were consulted in order to gain further information and confirm our findings: • Dr. Hans Schreier Professor of Soil Science and Watershed Management at the University of British Columbia • Josie Osborne, Mayor of Tofino • Dave Dunkley, Geoscientist for Water Policy and Planning at Metro Vancouver This report uses the SDM process in order to create a framework for analyzing the challenges and opportunities that municipalities will face in planning for water scarcity. Illustrating the intricacy of making thoughtful decisions, the SDM process provides a method to navigate through multiple alternatives, tradeoffs and uncertainties in a complicated decision context. The process includes six essential steps, which this report will discuss further: 1. Clarify the decision context 2. Define objectives and measures 3. Develop alternatives 4. Estimate consequences 5. Evaluate trade-offs 6. Implement, Monitor and Review Context A drought is defined as “a recurrent feature of climate involving a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage. (BC Government, 2015)” As a result of unprecedented changes to the atmosphere generated by human development, climate change is causing the effects of drought to be felt more acutely than ever before, as these dry periods become more frequent and severe. In the summer of 2015, the effects of water scarcity had significant effects on those living on the west coast of North America. Many communities in British Columbia faced severe restrictions on water use, and governments were forced to confront both short and long-term issues tied to water scarcity including potential adverse impacts on human health, the local economy and the environment (CBC News - British Columbia, 2015). In British Columbia, drought can be caused by a combination of insufficient snow accumulation, hot and dry weather, delayed rainfall, and high consumption (BC Government, 2015). BC has an abundance of freshwater resources and consumes more than the Canadian average (BC 4 Government, 2015). In many communities in BC, the highest proportion of residential treated water is going to outdoor uses, i.e. to keep lawns green (Shreirer, 2015). These patterns in consumption will exacerbate the impacts of climate change on drought. In the coming decades, BC will have greater warming and changes in its precipitation regime than the global average, and climate warming will result in less precipitation falling as snow, reduced snow packs, and earlier spring snow melt (BC Government, 2015). All of this will result in highly variable stream, reservoir and groundwater recharges over each year. This is especially problematic for small coastal communities in BC because they share the characteristics of reliance on a limited number of water sources, water-dependent industries such as fishing and tourism, fewer financial and human resources in municipal government, growing populations with seasonal variability, aging water infrastructure, and limited land (Osborne, 2015). In 2016, the new Water Sustainability Act in BC will come into effect in BC. Among other things, this Act places additional regulations on water management during periods of water scarcity (BC Government, 2015). Despite these reforms, a disconnect remains between policy and implementation at the municipal level. This report attempts to bridge this gap by providing municipalities of small coastal communities with viable strategies to manage their water resources for the continued health and vitality of their communities. Scope In order to determine the