Preface ver the last decade, infusing new science evacuations and disaster preparedness activities. and technology (S&T) into National New temperature and precipitation outlooks Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration extending to two weeks, a month, and a season O(NOAA) operations has significantly give resource managers additional information improved weather, water, and climate forecast and they can use to make better decisions. warning lead times, accuracy, and overall National Weather Service (NWS) product and service quality. Over the next decade, continued improvements Deployment of the Weather Surveillance Radar- in forecast accuracy and other NWS products and 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D), Advanced Weather services are required. Emergency managers need Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), Automated hours, not minutes, of lead time to prepare the Surface Observing System (ASOS), geostationary- public for hazardous weather and water conditions; and polar-orbiting environmental satellites, and businesses and natural resource managers need advanced high-performance computing, and data days, not hours, advance notice to prepare for envi- assimilation and modeling systems, coupled with ronmental changes that will affect their bottom line restructuring field operations and forecaster train- and threaten precious resources. To meet these ing, have enabled major improvements in critical improvement challenges and sustain service excel- information about environmental conditions lence to the Nation, the NWS must stay near the affecting virtually every facet of people's lives leading-edge of S&T supporting its mission. This and the economy. For example, tornado Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) warnings, which generally had no lead defines strategies and capability improvements the time in the 1970s, are now issued with NWS will pursue to meet operational requirements an annual average lead time of 12 and exploit scientific opportunities. The plan minutes - and as much as 30 min- emerged from a national workshop attended by utes lead time in some cases - experts from academia, the private sector, NOAA, allowing precious time for and other agencies. It is linked to the NWS people to seek protective Service Improvement Plan and other plans all cover. Similarly, the annual working together toward NWS and NOAA strategic average lead time for flash goals. The STIP is a “living” plan, which will flood warnings has respond to changing needs and opportunities, and increased from 8 min- evolve as necessary to best serve NOAA and the utes to nearly 50 Nation. minutes - giving people approximately six times the period of alert they once had. Jack Hayes Hurricane forecasts have been extended from three Director, NWS Office of Science and Technology to five days providing emergency managers and urban-planners two extra days to plan for orderly Table of Contents Introduction and Purpose . 4 Strategic Context and Vision . 5 Needs and Solutions . 10 Monitor and Observe . 10 Assess and Predict . 15 Engage, Advise, and Inform . 20 Understand and Describe . 24 Summary . 28 List of Acronyms . 30 List of References . 32 Concurrence . 33 3 IntroductionIntroduction andand PurposePurpose he National Weather Service (NWS) The purpose of this NWS Science and supports the National Oceanic and Technology (S&T) Infusion Plan (STIP) is to Atmospheric Administration's define S&T roadmaps supporting these goals T(NOAA's) mission by providing weather, and other NOAA priorities, while optimizing water, and climate forecasts and warnings to return on investment as judged by the socio- protect life and property, and enhance the economic impact on the Nation. The STIP is a national economy. NWS data and products "living" plan and will be revised as key aspects form a national information database and infra- change. This document outlines strategies and NOAA’s Mission structure which can be used by other governmental capabilities the NWS will pursue to provide the agencies, the private sector, the public, and the necessary S&T base to make needed perform- global community. ance improvements critical to its mission areas. To understand and predict Further details and plan updates are available on changes in the Earth’s To achieve NOAA's mission, the NOAA1 the NWS Office of Science and Technology environment and conserve and NWS2 Strategic Plans define four over- web site (www.weather.gov/ost). and manage coastal and arching goals: marine resources to meet our Nation’s economic, 9 Protect, restore, and manage the use of social, and environmental coastal and ocean resources through needs ecosystem-based management; 9 Understand climate variability and change to enhance society's ability to plan and respond; 9 Serve society's needs for weather and water information; and 9 Support the Nation's commerce with safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation. 4 StrategicStrategic ContextContext andand VisionVision he NOAA Strategic Plan defines four S&T- 9 The fourth step is to Understand and dependent strategies to reach its goals. The Describe the Earth system, develop new agency uses these strategies as the process and improved observational systems, steps to collect, produce, deliver, sustain, and NOAA’s T forecast models, and technologies, and improve weather, water, climate, and related environ- demonstrate advances. This step mental information. encompasses research and Strategies technology advancements The first step is to Monitor and Observe 9 and workforce elements that define the Earth environment training necessary to (space, atmosphere, land-surface, ocean, support the other coastal, and inland water), archive these data, three steps in sustaining and make them available and accessible to and improving existing users; product and service quality. It also includes long-term The second step is to Assess and Predict 9 research aimed at increasing the current and future state (from minutes knowledge about the Earth to months and years) of the Earth environ- system and anticipating ment by transforming observational data into changing social and eco- forecast and warning products and informa- nomic needs that tion through data assimilation and numerical may require new products prediction models. This step also includes and services supporting sustaining critical information technology (IT) NOAA's mission. supporting the end-to-end production and provision of NOAA products and services, from information collection to dissemination; 9 The third step is to Engage, Advise, and Inform users of these observations, warnings, forecasts, and other information to promote appropriate responses to changing hazardous and routine environmental conditions; and NOAA uses these strategies as process steps to collect, produce, deliver, sustain, and improve weather, water, climate, and related environmental information. 5 Strategic Context and Vision The quality of NWS products and services has improved over time as S&T has progressed in these four strategic areas. For example, deployments of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network, geostationary- and polar-orbiting satellites, advanced data assimilation techniques and fine- resolution models on high-performance computers, and the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) have led to an increase in the yearly national average tornado warning lead time from 3 minutes in 1979 to 12 minutes in 2002, an increase in the yearly national average flash flood warning lead time from 8 minutes in 1987 to 53 minutes in 2002, and a decrease in the yearly average 72-hour hurricane track Infusing new science and technology has improved national forecast error from 450 nautical miles in 1970 to 190 average tornado warning lead times (minutes). nautical miles in 2002. Utilizing the Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean (TAO) buoy array in the central Pacific Ocean led to the 1997- resource management. For instance, the energy sector's benefits include annual potential savings of $65 million by 1998 El Niño "event of the century" becoming the 4 best monitored and the first ever predicted El using NOAA climate station data. Niño on record. Information formatting and dissemination have also improved and National implementation of the Advanced expanded - the NWS is in the process of Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) - hydrologic making all of its forecasts accessible service improvements including better flood warnings over the Internet in digital formats. and water resources forecasts - will contribute approxi- mately $520 million per year in economic benefits to 5 Emergency-management and water resources users. And, from 1998-2002, the total other end-user responses to these theoretical value of weather derivatives - financial improved forecasts and warnings contracts based on seasonal average temperatures, degree-days, or precipitation amounts - executed result in lives saved and property 6 damage reduced. For example, in a between parties amounted to nearly $12 billion. typical hurricane season, forecasts, warnings, and associated emergency responses save $3 billion.3 In addition, eco- nomic sectors are becoming more sophisticat- ed at using NOAA's environmental information 6 to improve profit margins and environmental Strategic Context and Vision Despite these advancements, deaths and loss of property and commerce related to hazardous weather and floods still occur. In fact, America's vulnerability to weather and flooding is rising as more of the popu- lation moves into areas prone to these hazards and