fmso.leavenworth.army.mil Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 6 Issue #1 OEWATCH January 2016 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT SPECIAL ESSAY: The Russian General Staff System TURKEY Venezuela/Colombia Border 38 The Kyrgyz-Tajik Border: Halfway to Demarcation? 3 NATO Member Turkey joins Islamic Military Alliance 24 Organized Crime Violence Forces Residents to Flee from 4 Russia’s Expanding Presence in the Mediterranean the Tierra Caliente Region in Michoacan RUSSIA, UKRAINE 5 The End of Compartmentalization in Turkey-Russia 25 Mexican Military Expands Participation in U.N. 39 Artilleryman Developing New Tactics, Considering Relations? Peacekeeping Operations Further UAV Integration 41 Theorist Proposes a Doctrinal Usage for Russian MIDDLE EAST INDO-PACIFIC ASIA “Combat Robots” 6 Iran: “Guarding Revolution Knows No Boundaries” 26 ISRO Launches Singaporean Satellites 43 Russia Increasing Already Robust MLRS Capabilities 7 Iran: Supreme Leader’s Advisor Goes to Syria 27 Southeast Asian Countries Support, but Cautious about 45 Syrian Innovations Underscore Importance of Armored 8 Iran: Basij Prepares for Global Role New Muslim Alliance Against Terror Vehicles 9 The Looming Mosul Mobilization 28 Indonesian Security Forces Close In on Santoso while 47 Engineer Additions Grow Russian Maneuver 11 Saudi and Emirati Commanders Killed in Yemen’s Bab Islamic State Continues to Support Local Extremist Enhancement Capabilities el-Mandeb Groups 49 Russia’s Economic Problems Matter More than Donbass 13 Is the Russian Bear Eyeing Yemen’s Mountains? 29 Are Southern Insurgents Ready to Settle with the Thai and Syria, Says Russian Business Leader Government? 50 Putin’s Comment about Helping the Syrian Free Army AFRICA 30 Extremists from the Philippines and Indonesia May be 51 Open Letter in Support of Anti-Kremlin Russian 14 Kenyan Military Accused of Profiting from War in Working Together Parliamentarian Dmitry Gudkov Somalia 52 Growing Domestic Tension? 15 Protests in Ethiopia Turn Deadly CHINA, KOREA, JAPAN 53 Revising Serdyukov’s History 16 The US Fight Against Boko Haram: Considering the Role 31 China’s Increasing Emphasis on Civilian-Military 54 An Ominous Leak of Children in Combat Integration 55 Problems with Russia’s State Defense Order 17 New Chinese Military Base in Djibouti: In the Service of 31 China Modernizing its Tank Killer Capabilities 56 Strengthening Russian-Serbian Military Ties Djibouti’s Grand Strategy 32 World Robot Conference Highlights Importance of 57 Generating Electricity at 50 Below 18 Boko Haram Exploits Sunni-Shia Divide in Nigeria Robots in an Anti-terror Role 57 Naval Infantry Preparing for Arctic Winter Amphibious 33 Military Reform in China According to President Xi Assaults LATIN AMERICA Jinping 59 Nuclear Energy to Power the Arctic 19 Venezuelan Legislative Elections 34 A Chinese Perspective on Turkish-Russian Tensions in 59 Russian 2015 Arctic Construction Wraps Up 20 Colombian Plebiscite Syria 60 Remote-Controlled Cyber Weapons are Essentially 21 LATAM Ideological Swing 35 China Promotes First African Military Base in Djibouti Flying Combat Robots 22 Satellite GPS Technology Utilized by Drug Trafficking Organizations to Locate Shipments at High Sea CENTRAL ASIA SPECIAL ESSAY 22 Cuban Migration Crisis Causes Contention between 36 Another Step for Kazakhstan’s Defense Industry? 61 The Russian General Staff System Costa Rica and Nicaragua 37 Changes to the Russian 201st Motorized Rifle Division in 23 The FARC and ELN Exert Territorial Control along the Tajikistan The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine OEWATCH Command G-2’s Operational Environment Foreign News & Perspectives Enterprise and for 30 years has conducted of the Operational Environment open source research on foreign Volume 6 | Issue 1 January | 2016 perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are Regional Analysts and understudied or unconsidered. Expert Contributors Operational Environment Watch provides translated selections and analysis from Turkey Karen Kaya a diverse range of foreign articles and Middle East Tara Beeny other media that our analysts and expert Michael Rubin contributors believe will give military Lucas Winter and security professionals an added Africa Robert Feldman dimension to their critical thinking about Jason Warner the Operational Environment. Jacob Zenn Latin America Geoff Demarest Brenda Fiegel Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, Kevin Freese under copyright have not been used. All articles published in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided Kevin Freese in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) Indo-Pacific Asia Cindy Hurst media. Anthony Ortiz FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics to these articles to conform to organizational standards. China, Korea, Japan Cindy Hurst Academic conventions, source referencing, and citation Tim Thomas style are those of the author. Jacob Zenn The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or position of the Central Asia Matthew Stein Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this information does not Russia, Ukraine Chuck Bartles imply any commitment or intent on the part of the US Anna Borshchevskaya Government to provide any additional information on any Ray Finch topic presented herein. Les Grau Tim Thomas The Operational Environment Watch is archived and available at: http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Contact FMSO at: Editors Ray Finch [email protected] Harry Orenstein Design Editor Keith French ON THE COVER: General Staff Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Source: http://cdn.topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2012-11/1353898529_1.jpg TURKEY Top NATO Member Turkey joins Islamic Military Alliance OE Watch Commentary: On 15 December Saudi Arabia declared the establishment of a “For Islamic countries to have a joint voice against terror, is the new Islamic military alliance against terrorism, best response to those who are trying to equate terror with Islam.” made up of 34 Muslim countries, including Turkey, the only NATO member in the alliance. The accompanying passages from the Turkish Source: “Suudi Arabistan öncülüğünde teröre karşı İslam ittifakı,” Hurriyet.com.tr, 16 press discuss Turkish perspectives of the December 2015, http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/terore-karsi-islam-ittifaki-40027554 development, including those that welcome the development and those that call for Turkey to “Turkey is the only NATO ally in the coalition. Prime Minister Davutoğlu confirmed avoid such an initiative, questioning whether Turkey’s participation in the coalition. Davutoğlu...said, “When we received an such an alliance would potentially provoke a invitation from Saudi Arabia regarding such a meeting, a comprehensive gathering, Sunni-Shia conflict. we told them we viewed that positively. For Islamic countries to have a joint voice against terror, is the best response to those who are trying to equate terror with Islam. The first accompanying passage points out This effort among Islamic countries is a step in the right direction.” Davutoğlu did not that Turkey is the only NATO member in the give detailed information about the extent to which Turkey would participate in this alliance and notes Turkish Prime Minister alliance.” Ahmet Davutoğlu’s comments on the alliance. He welcomes the development and says that for Islamic countries to have a joint voice against Source: “İttifak teröre mi karşı Şiilere mi? (Is the Alliance against terror or against terrorism is the best response to those who try Shiites?),” Abcgazetesi.com, 15 December 2015, http://abcgazetesi.com/ittifak-terore- to equate Islam with terrorism. In contrast, the mi-siilere-mi-karsi-4165.html second passage notes the absence of Iraq, Iran and Syria, and claims that “the absence of Iraq “The alliance, which has 34 members, does not include Iran, Syria and Iraq. The and Syria- two Islamic countries who have absence of Iraq and Syria- two Islamic countries who have suffered most from terror suffered most from terror in recent years; and in recent years; and the absence of Iran- one of the strongest Islamic countries in the the absence of Iran- one of the strongest Islamic region ...., leads to the question, “Is the alliance against terror, or against Shias?... countries in the region ...., leads to the question, On the other hand, Turkey and Egypt will come together within the 34-member “Is the alliance against terror, or against Shia coalition. Following the collapse of the Mohammed Morsi regime, the two countries [countries]?” The passage also points out that had seen tension in relations and their diplomatic relations had hit rock-bottom, with the alliance brings together Turkey and Egypt each side withdrawing their ambassadors. Now the two countries will come together - two countries whose diplomatic relations had within a coalition that has an ‘anti-Shiite’ appearance. So Erdoğan, who doesn’t want hit rock bottom after the collapse of the Morsi to even shake Sisi’s hand, will fight together within the same coalition.” regime in Egypt in mid-2013. The final passage, by respected Turkish “Turkey would be better off staying away from this initiative foreign policy expert Murat Yetkin, raises some questions about the alliance. He asks how this which may provoke regional sectarian conflicts.”