Long-term habitat management planning for the endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizard (Gambelia sila) in California’s Central Valley Dara Illowsky, Brown University Center for Environmental Studies Advisors: Dr. Dov Sax, Brown University; Dr. Barry Sinervo, UC Santa Cruz Results Conclusions Endangered species in a changing world 1. In the A2 scenario, all populations are outside the • ~¼ of all species are expected to be threatened by Figure 2: 30-year climate averages (1981-2010) range of the 30-year average for climate by June extinction by 2050 due to climate change; range shifts, 2090-2099. collapses, and expansions expected (Thomas et al. • Some of these populations are unlikely to survive – 2004) unless they adapt– due to natural and anthropogenic • An expanding human population will lead to increasing obstructions to range shifts. demand on natural resources 2. Even in the mild B1 scenario, 11 of 16 sites are outside the average by June 2050-2059. The blunt-nosed leopard lizard 3. Cuyama Wash and Ballinger Canyon populations are (Gambelia sila) most likely to survive without wildlife management interference– remain relatively cool and may be able to • Listed as endangered since 1967 shift southwest toward cool populations of nonspecific • Endemic to Central Valley Gambelia. http://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/ Figure 2a: 30-year June central-valley/about-central- Figure 1: Remaining Figure 2b: 30-year 4. Consider purchase of conservation easements as o Now restricted to <15% of valley.html populations of G. sila temperature average. G. annual precipitation overlapping buffers around Pixley, Semitropic, and historic range sila generally mate in May average Allensworth Ecological Reserves. These populations o Requires sparse and June. are on currently protected land, but surrounding vegetation, but enough to Figure 4: B1 climate change scenario (least severe) projections agriculture will likely hinder range shifts. Easements support prey species (Decadal average: 2090-2099) may allow G. sila to reach Lost Hills, which is more o Also requires flat open and projected to remain relatively cool topography, burrows dug by 5. Consider establishing conservation banks around other animals (used by G. areas more likely to sustain G. sila populations (i.e. sila for shelter) Cuyama Wash, Ballinger Canyon, Gambelia • Major threat: habitat loss populations in Ventura County) hp://ucanr.edu/sites/Jackson_Lab/ 6. Even populations that remain cool until the end of the Climate_Change_in_Agriculture_770/ California_Agriculture_and_Climate_Change/ century may not remain so beyond then, especially in the A2 scenario. • Population monitoring, studies similar to this one, and studies on potential for managed relocation should continue in order to ensure the survival of G. sila. • Widespread demographic collapse of lizard Figure 3: Agriculture Figure 4a: Average B1 June Figure 4b: Average B1 annual populations expected by 2080 (Sinervo et al. surrounding G. sila temperature projection precipitation projection Special thanks to: 2010)– could this include G. sila? habitat Dr. Dov Sax, Dr. Barry Sinervo, Dr. Jim Kellner, Lynn Figure 6: A2 climate change scenario (most severe) projections http://www.californiaherps.com/ Carlson, Dr. Michael Westphal (U.S. BLM), Débora Souza lizards/images/gsilaslo6084.jpg (Decadal average: 2090-2099) (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sol), U.S. Bureau of Land Management, and the National Science Foundation References Montanucci, R. R. (1965). Observations on the San Joaquin Leopard Lizard, Crotaphytus wislizenii silus Stejneger. Herpetologica, 21(4), 270–283.. Sinervo, B., Méndez-de-la-Cruz, F., Miles, D. B., Heulin, B., Bastiaans, E., Cruz, M. V.- S., … Sites, J. W. (2010). Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches. Science, 328(5980), 894–899 Thomas, C. D., Cameron, A., Green, R. E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L. J., Collingham, Y. C., et al. (2004). Extinction risk from climate change. Nature , 427, 145-148. Objectives USFWS Sacramento Fish and Wildlife Office. (2010). Five-Year Review: Summary 1. Identify populations of G. sila which may be and Evaluation. Sacramento: US Fish and Wildlife Service. Williams, D. F., Cypher, E. A., Kelly, P. A., Miller, K. J., Norvell, N., Phillips, S. E., et al. threatened by climate change, especially warming (1998). Recovery Plan for the Upland Species of the San Joaquin Valley. Portland: and changing precipitation patterns USFWS Region 1. 2. Identify paths– or lack thereof– by which populations Figure 5: Highways may Figure 6a: Average A2 June Figure 6b: Average A2 annual may migrate to more suitable climates obstruct range shifts temperature projection precipitation projection .