Electric Bus 101 Dana Lowell [email protected] Update March 2020 MJB&A Electric Transit Bus Clients LA County Metropolitan Transportation Authority Santa Monica Transit TransLink/Coast Mountain Bus (Vancouver) MTA New York City Transit Milwaukee County Transit Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority 2 Current NA Electric Buses (Feb 2020) ▪ Approximately 900 electric buses in service and 1,300 more on order in North America (~2.5% of fleet) ▪ Almost 200 agencies with electric buses (~10% of agencies); 70% have <10 electric buses, but 10 have ordered more than 50 ▪ Electric buses are concentrated in California, but there is at least one in 50 states and Provinces ▪ Some analysts predict by 2026 electric buses could be 33% of new bus orders and 7% of the NA fleet 3 Recent Notable NA Electric Bus Orders In-service & On-order LA Metro 210 LA DOT 159 Antelope Valley, CA 85 Foothill Transit, CA 80 Formal commitments for zero Toronto 60 emission transition (outside of California): NYCT, King County Denver RTD 53 Metro, Minneapolis Metro, Edmonton 52 Toronto, TransLink in Vancouver King County Metro 51 Montreal 44 Metro, Minneapolis 35 SEPTA 35 Miami-Dade 33 4 MY 2020 40-ft Electric Bus Models METRIC BYD GILLIG NEW FLYER NOVA PROTERRA GVWR 43,431 lb 45,000 lb 44,308 lb 43,000 lb 43,650 lb 29,650 lb 30,134 lb 26,649 lb CURB WEIGHT 32,920 lb 32,000 33,750 lb 32,920 lb 33,149 lb BATTERY TYPE Iron-phosphate Lithium-ion Lithium-ion Lithium-ion Lithium-ion 160 kWh 148 kWh 220 kWh 267 kWh BATTERY SIZE 324 kWh 296 kWh 150 kWh 440 kWh 388 kWh 444 kWh 660 kWh 466 kWh STRUCTURE Tubular steel Tubular steel Tubular steel Tubular steel Composite Dual 190 kW MOTOR Dual 150 kW No Data 200 kW 230 kW 250 kW None – direct None – direct None – direct None – direct 2-speed auto GEAR BOX drive drive drive drive shift Other electric bus manufacturers: Manufacturers have standardized charging: • Green Power Motor Company • PLUG-IN: SAE J1772 CCS Type 1 • Complete Coach Works (diesel conversion) • CONDUCTIVE: SAE J3105-1 • Alexander Dennis (Double Decker) Every major NA Transit Bus manufacturer now sells electric buses Climate Concerns are Driving the Market… 2050 GHG Reduction Targets Climate Commitments *Arizona target for 2040; Delaware target for 2030; Maryland target for 2030, North Carolina target for 2025 Note: GHG reduction targets from different baseline years; though most are 1990 California “Innovative Clean Transit Regulation” • Adopted by CARB in December 2018 12 member states: U.S. Climate Alliance • Mandates ALL California transit buses “zero emission” by 2040 10 supporting states: Paris Agreement • Supported by significant subsidies via LCFS, state grant 274 member cities: Mayors National Climate Action Agenda programs … but US policy is driven by States & Cities 6 Transit Bus GHG Emissions For Fleet Average 12 MPH In-service Speed For diesel and CNG includes upstream and tail-pipe emissions; includes CO2, CH4, and N2O 7 Transit Bus NOx Emissions For Fleet Average 12 MPH In-service Speed For diesel and CNG includes upstream and tail-pipe emissions. 8 Electric Bus Economics ▪ Electric buses are significantly more expensive than diesel and hybrid buses ▪ Charging infrastructure is expensive – but less so CAPITAL than incremental cost of buses ▪ Batteries will (likely) need to be replaced at mid-life ▪ Electricity is cheaper than diesel OPERATING ▪ Potential for modest maintenance cost savings CAPITAL / OPERATING COST TRADE-OFFS WORLD-WIDE “BREAK EVEN” (vs Diesel) VARIES BY COUNTRY BASED ON ENERGY PRICES – which are primarily driven by tax policy THERE ARE OTHER COST & OPERATIONAL TRADE-OFFS BASED ON CHARGING STRATEGY 9 Relative Energy Prices – Diesel & Electricity Assumes 35% diesel engine efficiency ▪ Compared to the rest of the world US diesel prices are low (chart is based on $2.50/gallon) ▪ This negatively affects electric bus economics in the US compared to other countries better ELECTRIC BUS ECONOMICS worse Cost Difference between Diesel Fuel and Electricity by State (diesel is more expensive except in Hawaii) 10 Bus Purchase Cost US$ 40-ft Transit Bus Purchase Based on weighted average of recent purchases reported to APTA Transit Vehicle Database (2019) ▪ 40-ft Diesel buses cost about ~$500,000 ▪ Electric buses with the largest available battery (450 kWh) cost $850,000 - $900,000 ▪ Electric buses with a 150 – 200 kWh battery, suitable for in-route charging, cost $720,000 - $780,000 ▪ Electric bus costs are projected to fall over time, as the technology matures, and battery costs continue to fall 11 Electric Bus Charging Scenarios SCENARIO DEPOT CHARGING IN-ROUTE CHARGING All energy added “overnight”, using All energy added “in-route”, using 450 CONCEPT 50-100 kW chargers located at each kW chargers located throughout Transit Centre service area • Very large battery required on bus, high bus cost • Smaller battery required on bus, lower bus cost COST • Practical limitation on battery size limits range – in the near-term • Smaller number of chargers TRADE- additional buses will be required, but higher cost/charger OFFS required • Siting in-route chargers could be • Large number of chargers difficult required – space claim at Depots 12 Depot vs In-route Charging DEPOT CHARGING IN-ROUTE CHARGING • More direct control over • Less expensive now infrastructure • Do not need to shorten daily bus • Lower infrastructure costs assignments PROS (+) • Potentially less expensive in • No loss of depot parking capacity the long run • Greater resiliency/reliability –a few • Lower electricity cost (lower chargers out of commission won’t demand charges) affect bus operations • Space claim for chargers • Charger site acquisition & permitting reduces parking capacity • Less control over infrastructure • Must re-configure daily bus • Higher infrastructure costs assignments to shorten CONS • Higher cost/difficulty of charger them; increased dead-head (-) maintenance time • Additional time in schedules to • Difficult/costly to provide accommodate charging back-up power to entire • Higher electricity cost (higher depot demand charges) 13 Charging Infrastructure Cost DEPOT CHARGING IN-ROUTE CHARGING (50 kW/bus) (450 kW/charger) Corded, ground mount $60,000 - $70,000/bus 15% - 20% fewer parking spots Must plug/unplug buses Corded, overhead mount $75,000 - $120,000/bus 0% - 5% fewer parking spots Must plug/unplug buses Overhead pantograph $160,000 - $200,000/bus 0% - 5% fewer parking spots $750,000 - $850,000/charger Do not need to $95,000 – $110,000/bus plug/unplug buses (one charger every 6 – 8 buses) 14 Electric Bus Axle Weight + 4,700 - 5,500 lb Electric buses are typically heavier than diesel buses – the larger the battery pack the bigger the difference 15 Range per Charge 450 kWh nameplate capacity ▪ Batteries degrade over time, losing effective capacity Battery Degradation 2.4%/yr x 7 years ▪ Most battery manufacturers don’t recommend bringing 375 kWh Reserve for battery life 5% batteries all the way down to 356 kWh zero state of charge every Reserve for operational flexibility 10% 320 kWh Usable at bus mid-life day – maintain a reserve of 5% - 20% On-board 320 kWh ▪ Daily energy use can vary Battery ÷ from the average by 10% or more on a given day 2.1 kWh/mi 3.2 kWh/mi ▪ Electric bus planning should = 152 miles = 100 miles be based on a “reliable” 3-season 0° F Day range per charge that accounts for these factors – not on name plate range of a “reliable range at bus mid-life” new battery and average (planning factor) energy use Based on 12 MPH avg speed 16 Bus Scheduling – Miles per Day ▪ For most transit agencies average miles/bus/day is between 100 and 200 miles ✓ It can vary significantly by depot at the same agency ▪ However, 50% of buses do more miles than the average ▪ Some buses travel 250+ miles per day Each line is a ▪ This is NOT a function of how different depot. “long” routes are, but rather of how buses are scheduled ▪ When using depot-charged electric buses, long assignments will need to be shortened to fit within available range – for most agencies this will INCREASE peak bus requirements ▪ Bus routes with higher average speed and/or low Peak/Base ratio will tend to have higher daily energy requirements and will therefore be harder to implement depot charging given current limits on battery size 17 Replacement Ratio vs Range per Charge To have a 1:1 replacement ratio, the reliable range per charge (miles) for an electric bus needs to be ~25% greater than fleet average daily miles - i.e. if average is 150 mile/day/bus range per charge needs to be ~187 miles to replace diesel buses 1:1 For full fleet conversion if using overnight depot charging, many transit agencies will need 5% - 20% more electric buses than current diesel/CNG buses due to limitations on battery size and range for current buses from most manufacturers Future buses are expected to have larger batteries and greater range per charge as battery energy density increases 18 Electric Bus Average Life-time Costs MY2018 40-ft Bus – $/mi Total Cost $/mi Incremental Cost Battery Bus vs Diesel Bus $/mi Projected Evolution of Electric Bus Costs Electric drivetrain costs Battery costs Industry Battery energy density Range Replacement ratio Projections Battery life Electric drivetrain efficiency Energy use ENERGY INFORMATION Diesel cost relative to electricity cost ADMINISTRATION All indicators point to electric bus life-cycle costs falling over time relative to diesel and CNG buses 20 Projected Electric Bus Costs - US Assumes no additional operating or capital subsides for electric buses. Does not include monetized value of electric bus emission reductions. 21 Projected Electric Bus Costs - CA California Low Carbon Fuel Standard program provides subsidies for electricity use by electric buses 22 Projected Electric Bus “Break Even” Average Life Cycle Costs MARKET vs HYBRID vs DIESEL US (AVG) MY 2050+ MY 2050+ CA MY 2040 MY2050 CANADA MY 2040 MY 2045 UK MY 2035 MY 2030 FRANCE MY 2025 MY 2025 23 Projected Battery Costs ▪ Battery costs have a huge impact on electric bus economics ▪ This analysis is based on a fairly conservative view of future battery costs ▪ If battery costs fall faster, diesel cost parity will arrive sooner 24 Electric Bus Market Barriers 1.