“ Towards a Negarchical Peace: Security Threats and the Production of Negarchy and Organizational Resilience in the Contemporary World” Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of PhD Pola Zafra-Davis Department of International Politics Aberystwyth University 2015 Declaration/Statements Word Count of thesis: .......92,825................................................................. DECLARATION This work has not previously been accepted in substance for any degree and is not being concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree. Signed ...................................................................... (candidate) Date ........................................................................ STATEMENT 1 This thesis is the result of my own investigations, except where otherwise stated. Where *correction services have been used, the extent and nature of the correction is clearly marked in a footnote(s). Other sources are acknowledged by footnotes giving explicit references. A bibliography is appended. Signed ..................................................................... (candidate) Date ........................................................................ [*this refers to the extent to which the text has been corrected by others] STATEMENT 2 I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for inter-library loan, and for the title and summary to be made available to outside organisations. Signed ..................................................................... (candidate) Date ........................................................................ NB: Candidates on whose behalf a bar on access (hard copy) has been approved by the University should use the following version of Statement 2: I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for inter- library loans after expiry of a bar on access approved by Aberystwyth University. Signed ..................................................................... (candidate) Date ………………………………………………….. ABSTRACT This thesis examines cooperation trends in Post-Cold War security organizations through a development of Deudney's Republican Security Theory (RST) and the notion of resilience. Neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are the default theories in explaining the interactions among states inside an organization. While neoliberal institutionalists argue that organizations exert a strong influence on cooperation, and arise from a need for it, neorealism sees the organization as ephemeral and a reflection of great power interests which ultimately undermine cooperation. The two mainstream theories, crucially, provide contradictory structural explanations for cooperation when applied to multiple regions. I argue that this because both adopt the flawed assumption of immutable international anarchy and thus fail to appreciate that a new ordering principle, negarchy, is emerging. By searching for negarchy, I consider the organizational characteristic of resilience. Resilience is an organization's ability to sustain cooperation after exogenous shocks. I argue that the operation of security organizations in Europe, Eurasia and South America is best explained by reference to environment and ordering principles. RST provides tools that are useful in providing an alternative logic for cooperation based on changes in ordering principles, governance, the material environment and the desire for security and liberty. While RST is a promising alternative for explaining cooperation, it has not yet been utilised to explain the Post-Cold War security environment. In light of this, I modify RST in order to take into account non-state actors as sources of violence, as well as extra-regional powers encroaching on a geographic security sphere. I also introduce a macrostructural and microstructural model that incorporates exogenous shocks and the emergence of negarchy through the detection of the anarchy-interdependence and hierarchy-restraint problematiques. I conclude that negarchy is present in varying intensity in three regional security spheres. This allows us to account for the dynamics of organizational cooperation patterns. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………………………………….v LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………………………………………...vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS…………………………………………………………………….ix INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………..……….1 The need for a new Ordering Principle……………………………………………………1 Our Research Question……………………………………………………………………5 Adjusting Republican Security Theory……………………………………………………7 Introducing Resilience………………………………………………………………….…8 Caveats……………………………………………………………………………………9 Structure of the Thesis…………………………………………………………………...11 1. Revisiting Organizational Resilience: From Neorealism to Republican Security……...13 1.1.The Mainstream Theories of Cooperation and the Three Harmful Assumptions that Characterize them………………………………………………………………………..14 1.1.1. The mainstream theories of cooperation: neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism…………………………………………………………………...14 1.1.1.1. Neorealism and cooperation…………………………………………….15 1.1.1.2. Neoliberal institutionalism and cooperation…………………………….17 1.1.2. The three harmful assumptions of mainstream theory…………………………...19 1.1.2.1. Harmful assumption #1: the assumption of international anarchy……...19 1.1.2.2. Harmful assumption #2: the assumption of the international-domestic divide……………………………………………………………………..20 1.1.2.3. Harmful assumption #3: methodological assumptions and the perils of episodic analysis ………………………………………………………...21 1.2. The Empirical Quandry of Neorealist and Neoliberal Expectations in Cooperation……23 1.3. Resilience and the Promise of Republican Security Theory…………………………….27 1.3.1. RST and the amelioration of the first two Harmful Assumptions of Mainstream Theory……………………………………………………………………………27 1.3.1.1. Ameliorating harmful assumption #1 of mainstream theory……………28 1.3.1.2. Ameliorating harmful assumption #2 of mainstream theory……………29 1.3.2. Introducing organizational resilience into methodologies of cooperation: The compatibility of RST……………………………………………………………..30 1.3.2.1. Defining resilience………………………………………………………30 1.3.2.2. Distinguishing between resilience and effectiveness in organizations….32 1.3.2.3. Ameliorating harmful assumption #3 of mainstream theory……………33 1.4. Defending Republican Security Theory: Competing Theories of Order and the Post-Cold War World ………………………………………………………………………………35 1.5 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….37 i 2. Updating Republican Security for the Post-Cold War Era……………………………...39 2.1. Methods and Case Selection…………………………………………………………….40 2.2. Amendments and Addendums to Republican Security and Violence-Interdependence..42 2.2.1. Incorporating Regional Security Complex Theory………………………………..43 2.2.2. Modifying violence-interdependence……………………………………………..44 2.2.3. James Madison’s external threat necessity and correlations with negarchy………46 2.2.4. Machiavelli’s vivere sicuro, vivere libero and republican resilience……………..47 2.3. Introducing the Macrostructure: Tracking Negarchy…………………………………...48 2.3.1. Layers and stages in regional organizational development and punctuated equilibrium ………………………………………………………………………………48 2.3.2. Interpreting the macrostructure……………………………………………………50 2.4. Introducing the Microstructure: Order-Altering Perceptions…………………………...51 2.5. Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………53 3. Europe: A Confederation and its Consequences…………………………………………55 3.1 Theories European Cooperation and an RST Reading…………………………………..56 3.1.1. Theories of Cooperation in Europe……………………………………………….56 3.1.2. Post-Cold War Republican Security and Strong Resilience in Europe…………...59 3.2 1992-1996 Europe Bandwagons in Hierarchy…………………………………………...60 3.2.1. The US’s place in global hierarchy in European security…………………………61 3.2.2. Non-state threats lurking outside the fortress……………………………………..63 3.2.3. Still an organizational hierarchy, pillars and differentiation before cohesion…….66 3.3 1997-2001 Europe and Defense Rapprochement………………………………………..67 3.3.1. The hierarchy-restraint problematique and the affirmation of self-sufficiency in European defense………………………………………………………………...68 3.3.2. The anarchy-interdependence problematique and the idea of threat movements in the Amsterdam Treaty……………………………………………………………73 3.3.3. Negarchical developments and internally empowering the EU for defense………77 3.4 2001-Present Europe and Security Maturation…………………………………………..79 3.4.1. US’s global hierarchical intrusions and European blowback……………………..79 3.4.2. Regional negarchy and an expanded space for the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice……………………………………………………………………………...85 3.4.3. Externalizing threats and the growing pains of a mature republic ………………..88 3.5 Conclusions on Europe: The EU as a mature Negarchical Organization in Negarchy…………………………………………………………………………………..…92 4. Eurasia: Consolidation of an Organizational-level Negarchy..………………………….95 4.1. Theories of Eurasian Cooperation and an RST Reading………………………………..96 4.1.1. Theories of Cooperation in Eurasia……………………………………………….96 4.1.2. Post-Cold War Republican Security and moderate resilience in Eurasia…………98 4.2. 1991-1995: The First Instance of the Hierarchy-Restraint Problematique…………….100 4.2.1. Regional hierarchy and conflict in Eurasia Post-USSR………………………….100 4.2.2. The CIS and organizational level hierarchy……………………………………...102 4.3. 1996-2000: The Eruption of Anarchy in the Organizations and the Region…………..103 ii 4.3.1. US penetration and