Paper Technology Journal Global economy and the paper market: An Attempted Prognosis. News from the Divisions: Stock Preparation, Paper Machinery, Finishing, Service. Corporate News: Service presence in North America, Dörries, Düren renamed. 2 Paper-Art-Fashion – an exhibition at the Baden National Museum. Contents Foreword 1 Global economy and the paper market: An Attempted Prognosis 2 News from the Divisions Stock Preparation: Further development of a well-proven disperging system 12 Stock Preparation: Optimal fibre processing with the TwinFlo D 16 Stock Preparation: New power on the periphery – integrated treatment for water, sludge and rejects 20 Paper Machinery: The ModuleJet – a breakthrough in headbox technology 27 Paper Machinery: QualiFlex – the new generation of press sleeves 32 Paper Machinery: DuoRoller II – a star in winder technology 35 Paper Machinery: VSPT benefits from Sulzer Innotec resources 40 Finishing: Ecocal – the modular system for soft calendering 41 Finishing: The Janus Concept – a supercalender with plastic rolls? 44 Finishing: Twister – reel packaging for the future 48 Service: Monitoring systems – the modern way of machine-minding 52 Corporate News North America, pulp and paper giant: Voith Sulzer Paper Technology’s strong service presence 54 The Netherlands: Another example of first-class service 60 Germany: Dörries, Düren renamed 61 Germany: The Ravensburg Stock Preparation Division’s new test plant for machinery development 65 Patents – a mirror of innovations 66 Cover picture: DuoRoller II – a winning concept Paper – Art – Fashion 67 in winder technology. See article on page 35. 1 Dear Customers, Dear Readers, “By the way, congratulations on your new customer magazine – quite a source of information. But what else could we expect from the ‘twogether company’?”. This comment by a reputed customer in the USA reflects the overwhelming response to our first edition of “twogether” magazine. Not only the paper industry, but also professional associations, academic institutes and the trade journals were unanimous in this acclaim. Bearing in mind today’s flood of printed media and pressure of time, we were delighted with such a positive response. And it is nice to be called a “twogether company” – a sign of acceptance as partner in the paper industry. Hans Müller, President and CEO, Voith Sulzer Papiertechnik GmbH Keeping you up to date in this way is another step in our strategy of closer customer contact. What are the next steps? How will the situation of papermakers and machinery manufacturers develop in the context of increasingly rapid global market changes? A dependable way of foretelling the future would certainly be the dream of all investors. Some weeks ago we received an interesting paper on this theme by Riccardo E. Moeschlin, an expert not unknown in the paper industry. How valid are such forecasts? Since no recipe exists for reliable prognoses, and as human beings we are all prone to error, this theory based on repetitive economic cycles seems particularly interesting. Read on and judge for yourself! One again, we trust that “twogether” No. 2 brings you interesting reading and some useful technical information. Sincerely Hans Müller 2 1827 1837 1845 1854 1864 1872 A PROSPERITY PHASE INNOVATION CYCLES B 1823 1834 1842 1850 1861 1870 ECONOMIC CYCLES RECESSION PHASE 20 years 18 years 16 years C 1819 1839 1857 1750 1800 1850 1873 BASIC INNOVATIONS Steam engine Insulated Electric bulb Mechanical weaving loom electrical cable Telephony Locomotive Transformer Steel founding Internal combustion Telegraphy engine Photography Artificial fertilizers 1825 World's first railway train Global economy and the paper market: AN ATTEMPTED PROGNOSIS Boom or recession – what can we expect? Investment planning and market strategies depend on analyses and forecasts of global economic develop- ments. Which parameters can be used as a basis for such prognoses? Thanks to ever-improving methodics and above all faster data availability, short and middle-term forecasts are becoming more reliable. Long-term prognoses always involve a residual risk, since not all influencing factors can be fully evaluated – particularly the human factor. History repeats itself with surprising regularity, however, with cycles such as the “seven fat years and seven lean years” of the Bible. The paradox here is that reviewing the past is not a bad way of anticipating future trends. Global economy and the paper market 3 1881 1891 1899 1908 1916 1926 1935 1945 1953 1962 1972 1980 1989 1997/98 Upswing Slowdown Boom 1877 1888 1897 1904 1913 1924 1931 1942 1951 1958 1969 1978 1984 1993 Reces sion 21 years 17 years 18 years 19 years 17 years 17 years 1894 1911 1948 1965 19001929 19501982 2000 Nylon, Perlon Microelectronics Radar Laser Radio, television Fibreglass Rocket propulsion Biotechnology Electronics Ecotechnologies Alternative energies 1877/78 1931 1983 Thomas Alva Edison: First TV image PC office invasion Gramophone and electric light bulb There is no need to go back to biblical ings in 1982 when they were published in to predict a boom times, however, or to resort to Eastern “Pulp and Paper International”. The dia- afterwards from philosophies. A glance at the last two and gram is divided into three levels. A is the 1982 to 1989. Not a half centuries is enough to show that boom level, B corresponds to economic only did this actu- history repeats itself in cycles. And eco- slowdown, and level C indicates reces- ally occur, but it nomic cycles follow the same pattern, as sion and slump phases. As we can see, was also followed shown in the diagram above. the highs and lows of economic cycles by the recession generally occur every nine years on aver- forecast for 1993. Discovered in 1902 on an old yellowing age. document, this chart is regarded by Based on this experts as going back to the American The repeated “M-shape” (see example trend, it is logical The author: War of Secession in 1861-1865. If this is above from 1948 to 1965) shows that that the next peak Riccardo E. Moeschlin, Zürich, Switzerland true, it forecast the recessions of 1873 economic recession occurs with alarming can be expected in and 1894 and the 1929/30 slump with regularity every eighteen years on aver- 1997/98. It also amazing accuracy. The paper industry as age. Not surprisingly, the 1982 recession seems that another recession is likely to a whole was confronted with these find- followed this pattern, and it was logical follow around the turn of the millennium. 4 A further point here is that economic 300 Global paper and paperboard production cycles in North America generally pre- and consumption cede those in Europe by one or two 1 Economic cycle 250 years. 2 Paper and paperboard production = consumption 2 1 Another interesting aspect of economic 200 trends is innovation intervals (Kondratieff cycles). The low points of this curve cor- respond every 50 to 60 years with funda- 150 mental innovations which always herald a new era and influence the economy Million tonnes accordingly. In 1819, for example, the 100 railways and wireless telegraphy were born, in 1873 the telephone was invent- ed, in 1929 rocket propulsion, and in 50 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1982 came the massive breakthrough of microelectronics. Population growth in billions 4,4 4,8 5,3 5,75 6,2 Diagram 1 To what extent can historically docu- 1500 mented global economy cycles be com- Paper machine production in West Germany 1400 pared with the equally extreme cyclic behaviour of the paper industry? To 1300 1 Economic cycle answer this question, let us first compare 1200 2 Machinery sales figures 2 the two cycles. In Chart 1 worldwide 1100 production and consumption of paper 1000 1 and paperboard are compared with global 900 economy cycles. The concurrence be- 800 tween the two is impressive. Another 700 comparison is equally conclusive. In Million DM 600 Chart 2, the figures (values) of paper making machinery in West Germany are 500 likewise plotted against world economy 400 cycles. Here again, the two curves concur 300 astonishingly well. 200 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 These two comparisons from different points of view clearly confirm that – as Diagram 2 Global economy and the paper market 5 bd Free market economies France 530 3600 Notes to Chart 3: Germany 850 5700 The three economy systems are made Finland 590 3100 comparable by country and region using the Japan 2150 6700 following formula: C = a x b +d (1000 t). Semi-free market economies China 1200 2750 Specific factor land/region (b) for calculating Korea 410 200 consumption (C): Indonesia 130 80 b = consumption in 1990 minus consumption Taiwan 310 200 in 1965, divided by 10. Thailand 110 100 d = consumption in 1965. Planned market economy a = multiplier. USSR 550 4500 mentioned above – historical cycles in 24 global economies can be a quite reliable Paper and paperboard consumption basis for forecasting developments in the 23 in the three world economy systems paper industry. The only limitation is that 22 1 Free market economy these cycles only apply to free market Industrialized countries 21 economies, i.e. to industrialized countries 2 Semi-free market economy Far East/Asian-Pacific (mean values) such as North America, Europe, Japan, 20 2a Semi-free market economy Australia New Zealand, South Africa and China 19 some of the Latin American countries. 3 Planned market economy 18 Former USSR states On the other hand, global economies at 17 the present time can be divided into three 16 different systems. Firstly the free market economies of the abovementioned coun- 15 tries, secondly the semi-free market 14 economies of the Far East and some Latin American and African nations, and thirdly 13 the planned economies of the former 12 communist countries.