Investigating Interchange Traffic and Commercial Development at Rural Interstate Highway Exits A thesis presented to the faculty of the Russ College of Engineering and Technology of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science Shah Mahmood August 2016 © 2016 Shah Mahmood. All Rights Reserved. 2 This thesis titled Investigating Interchange Traffic and Commercial Development at Rural Interstate Highway Exits by SHAH MAHMOOD has been approved for the Department of Civil Engineering and the Russ College of Engineering and Technology by Benjamin R. Sperry Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering Dennis Irwin Dean, Russ College of Engineering and Technology 3 ABSTRACT MAHMOOD, SHAH., M.S., August 2016, Civil Engineering Investigating Interchange Traffic and Commercial Development at Rural Interstate Highway Exits Director of Thesis: Benjamin R. Sperry This thesis investigates interchange traffic and commercial development at 69 rural interstate highway exits in Ohio. According to the literature, the following factors influence commercial development growth at rural and small-town Interstate exits: motels, hotels, restaurants, gas stations and convenience stores, truck stops or truck parking lots, geography, access to firmer markets, traffic volume of the intersecting highway, intersecting highway types, site competition, and other developments. This study examined those factors which influence traffic volume at the interchange exit such as gas stations and convenience stores, fast food restaurants, hotels and motels, distance to the nearest rural city and town, distance to the nearest and furthest interchange, and intersecting highway. The geographic information system (GIS) is used to identify 69 Interstate exits and local trade area characteristics along Interstate 70 and Interstate 75 in Ohio. Statistical analysis software SPSS was used to analyzed the data. Two models, Interchange AADT model and daily truck percentage (T24) model, were developed using the regression stepwise backward technique separately to quantify and estimate commercial development at each exit of Interstate 70 and 75 in Ohio. Results showed a moderate correlation between most development units. The final output of these two models may be good source of information for commercial development planning at rural and small town Interstate exits in Interstate 70 and Interstate 75 in Ohio. 4 DEDICATION Complex work requires both strong effort and the guidance of elders, namely those close to our heart. I dedicate my accomplishments to my sweet and loving Father and Mother, Whose affection, endless love, encouragement and prayer offered me success and shaped my character. I appreciate your sacrifices and know that I wouldn’t be at this state without you. 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Foremost, I am highly thankful to Allah for His blessing that continue to flow into my life, and because of You, I made this through against all odds. For the ancestors who concreted the path before me upon whose shoulders I stand. This is also dedicated to my family and the many friends who supported me on this journey. Thank you. I cannot find words to express my gratitude to my supervisor Benjamin R. Sperry for his unwavering support, collegiality, and mentorship throughout this project. I would also like to thank Dr. Deborah McAvoy, Dr. Bhaven Naik, and Dr. Gaurav Sinha for serving on my committee. Lastly, I’d like to acknowledge my associates in the Facility for their support and motivation. 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Dedication ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... 5 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... 9 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ 12 Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................................. 14 1. 1. Background ....................................................................................................................... 14 1. 2. Gap Statement ................................................................................................................... 21 1. 3. Research Goal .................................................................................................................... 23 1. 4. Research Objectives .......................................................................................................... 23 1. 5. Justification of the Research Study ................................................................................... 24 Chapter 2: Related Literature Review ............................................................................................ 26 2. 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 26 2. 2. Exit Survey ........................................................................................................................ 27 2. 3. Exit Form ........................................................................................................................... 29 2. 4. Interchange Scale ............................................................................................................... 32 2. 5. Mix and Regional Incidence .............................................................................................. 33 2. 6. Interchange Structure ......................................................................................................... 34 2. 7. Related Methodology ........................................................................................................ 40 2. 8. Summary of Literature ...................................................................................................... 48 Chapter 3: Data Analysis ............................................................................................................... 49 3. 1. Introduction to Interstate 70 and Interstate 75 ................................................................... 49 3. 2. General Form of Regression Models ................................................................................. 52 3. 3. Data Base Development .................................................................................................... 54 3. 3. 1. Sample of Interstate Exit Selections .......................................................................... 54 3. 3. 2. Traffic Count Location Maps .................................................................................... 55 3. 3. 3. Interchange Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) ................................................ 56 3. 3. 4. Daily Truck Percentage (T24) Data Collection ......................................................... 57 3. 3. 5. Intersecting Highway Annual Average Daily Traffic (ADT) ................................... 57 3. 3. 6. Population of the Nearest Cities and Towns ............................................................. 57 7 3. 3. 6. Population of the Nearest Cities and Towns ............................................................. 57 3. 3. 7. Population of County ................................................................................................ 58 3. 3. 8. Distance to the Nearest City and Town Centers ........................................................ 58 3. 3. 9. Distance to the Nearest and Furthest Neighboring Interchange ................................ 60 3. 3. 10. Exit Development .................................................................................................... 60 3. 3. 11. Developed Axes ...................................................................................................... 64 3. 4. Preliminary Data Analysis ................................................................................................. 64 Chapter 4: Analyis of the Regression Models ............................................................................... 72 4. 1: Preliminary Analysis ......................................................................................................... 72 4. 1. 1. Descriptive Statistics ................................................................................................. 73 4. 1. 2. Correlation Analysis – Interchange AADT Model ................................................... 74 4. 1. 3. Correlation Analysis – Daily Truck Percentage (T24) Model .................................... 80 4. 1. 4. Regression Analysis Method ..................................................................................... 83 4. 2. Interchange AADT Model ................................................................................................. 85 4. 2. 1. Model Summary ........................................................................................................ 86 4. 2. 2. Interchange AADT Model - ANOVA ....................................................................... 87 4. 2. 3. Equation and its Parameters of Interchange