ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF AYEYARWADY DELTA MANGROVE FORESTS The Green Growth Knowledge Partnership (GGKP) is a global community of organizations and experts committed to collaboratively generating, managing, and sharing green growth knowledge. Led by the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Bank Group, the GGKP draws together over 70 partner organizations. For more information, visit www.greengrowthknowledge.org. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft The Green Growth Knowledge Confédération suisse Confederazione Svizzera Platform is financially supported by Confederaziun svizra the Swiss Confederation Swiss Confederation This study received principal funding from the MAVA Foundation. Copyright © United Nations Environment Programme, 2020 This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. UNEP would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the United Nations Environment Programme. Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the GGKP partners or donors concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Moreover, the views expressed do not necessarily represent the decision or the stated policy of the GGKP partners or donors, nor does citing of trade names or commercial processes constitute endorsement. Acknowledgments AUTHORS Sang Phan, Aaron Russell, Juan Jose Robalino, Ali Akber, Ammar Aziz and Catherine Lovelock This report was prepared by Sang Phan, Ali Akber, Ammar Aziz and Catherine Lovelock from The University of Queensland, under the guidance and support provided by Aaron Russell and Juan Jose Robalino from the Global Green Growth Institute. Partial data for this research was collected by The University of Queensland’s Project “Integrated planning and practices for mangrove management associated with agriculture and aquaculture in Myanmar (2017P1-MYR)” sponsored by Asia- Pacific Network for Sustainable Forest Management and Rehabilitation (APFNet). The valuable support from APFNet is acknowledged. This report was supported through the collaborative work undertaken with Myanmar Government authorities including the Forest Department, Department of Fishery, Environmental Conservation Department, and the Ayeyarwady Regional Government and its departments’ Townships. This report would not have been possible without additional inputs from multiple international NGOs and civil society organizations in Myanmar. The production of this report was supported by the GGKP Secretariat, in particular, John J. Maughan and Sun Cho. We sincerely thank the authors and external contributors for making this work possible. II ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF AYEYARWADY MANGROVE FORESTS Summary The Ayeyarwady Delta is one of the major tropical deltas in the world. Mangrove forests are key elements in the evolution of tropical deltas such as the Ayeyarwady and provide a range of resources that support communities. The communities of the densely populated Ayeyarwady Delta are highly dependent on mangroves, for fuel, food and coastal protection environmental, social & human, and financial from extreme storms. The mangroves of the Delta categories. We compared returns obtained under a have been degraded through over-exploitation and Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, with current land conversion, which has increased the levels of investment in restoration and rates of vulnerability of people to extreme weather events, illegal mangrove use, against scenarios where illegal as demonstrated by the devastation caused by use of mangroves is reduced, and where mangrove Cyclone Nargis in 2008. The decline of fishery and restoration is enhanced and mangroves currently fuel wood availability have also affected the under government management are allocated to communities’ wellbeing. Conservation, restoration community forestry and village woodlots. We used and improved management of mangroves is a an extensive field data set that included land-use solution to the environmental degradation faced by mapping, assessments of mangrove biomass, the people of the Ayeyarwady Delta. growth rates and carbon sequestration; costs and success of mangrove restoration; data on value The conservation and restoration of coastal chains of mangrove products; levels of employment mangroves is a priority consistent with Myanmar's and training, as well as information on government Nationally Determined Contribution commitments policies and practices. Our analyses also included to the Paris Agreement because of the reduction in estimates of the impacts of climate change on climate-associated vulnerability resulting from agriculture and mangrove distribution. However, it mangrove conservation and restoration, and should be noted that these impacts are highly because of the role of mangroves in carbon uncertain due to a lack of data and models for the sequestration or blue carbon. However, region. conservation and restoration of mangroves require substantial investment. This can be justified and Improved management scenarios benefited stimulated if the returns are clearly known. Thus, communities above a BAU scenario in all three the aim of this project was to characterize the categories considered in the 3Returns Framework monetary and non-monetary benefits of restoration (environmental, social & human, and financial). and improved management of mangroves in Increases in benefits were particularly evident for townships of the lower Ayeyarwady Delta. The end natural capital, coastal protection and net present goal was to identify green growth alternatives to value. The high return on investment for all enhance the well-being of the communities of the scenarios over 60 years, even in the BAU scenario, Ayeyarwady Delta. provided evidence that even limited investment in mangrove restoration provides high levels of To estimate the return on investment for benefits. However, the return on investment for the restoration and improved management of BAU declined over time, reflecting the decrease in mangroves we followed the 3Returns Framework, benefits when there is limited reinvestment or which seeks to estimate returns on investment in replenishment of mangrove assets. ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF AYEYARWADY MANGROVE FORESTS III Contents 7 Acknowledgements II 05 Valuation Phase Summary III 5.1 Mangrove area and carbon sequestration 8 Table of Contents IV 5.2 Coastal protection 9 List of Tables VI 5.3 Climate change, including sea level rise 9 List of Figures VII 5.4 Targeted mangrove products derived from List of Abbreviations VIII aquaculture, crab culture and fuelwood 11 harvesting 06 Methodology 12 01 Background of the Project 1 6.1 Mangrove status, fuelwood and carbon 12 sequestration 6.1.1 Mangrove surveys 12 6.1.2 Satellite image interpretation and mapping 12 02 Objective of the Project 2 6.1.3 Timber growth and carbon sequestration 12 6.1.4 Socio-economic, fuelwood, mangrove 12 aquaculture and crab catching surveys 03 3Returns Framework 3 Overview 07 Mangrove management 13 scenarios 04 Identification Phase 4 4.1 Study area 4 4.2 Stakeholders 6 IV ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF AYEYARWADY MANGROVE FORESTS 23 08 Findings Annex 1 Community forest certificates in the ii 8.1 Activity 1: Identifying potential impacts of 23 mangrove restoration projects Myaungmya Forestry District 8.1.1 Carbon sequestration 23 Annex 2 List of village tracks and population in v 8.1.2 Coastal protection 33 mangrove reserve forests and their 10 km buffer zones 8.1.3 Selected mangrove compatible products 33 8.2 Activity 2: Return on Investment Analysis of Annex 3 community-based mangrove management 40 Shrimp value chain in the Ayeyarwady viii improvements and mangrove rehabilitation Delta, Myanmar 8.3 Sea level rises and climate change impacts 56 Annex 4 Crab value chain in the Ayeyarwady ix 8.4 Policy implications for Green Growth Delta, Myanmar 58 Improvement Annex 5 8.5 Sharing the project outcomes with the Fuelwood value chain in the x 59 stakeholders Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar 09 Conclusion and way forward 61 10 References 62 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF AYEYARWADY MANGROVE FORESTS V List of Tables Table No. Description Page No. Table 1 Scenarios of mangrove cover change with sea level rise 10 Description of impact drivers, impacts, impact consequences, and dependencies in the BAU scenario Table 2 on the study area. Outcomes in red text are negative, orange are neutral and those in green are 14 positive for some stakeholders Key aspects of Scenario 1. Description of impact drivers, impacts, impact consequences, and Table 3 dependencies associated with Scenario 1 in the study area. Outcomes in red text are negative, orange 15 are neutral and those in green are positive for some stakeholders Key aspects of Scenario 2,3 and 4. Description of impact drivers, impacts, impact consequences and Table 4 dependencies on the study area for Scenarios 2, 3, and 4. Outcomes in red text are negative, orange 17 are neutral and