Climate Change and employment Impact on employment in the European Union-25 of climate change and CO2 emission reduction measures by 2030 With the financial support of the European Commission, DG Environment, United Kingdom department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), Spain department of Environment, Italy department of Environment, of Belgium SPF Sécurité de la chaîne alimentaire et Environnement, Finland department of Environment, the Ademe (France) and the DIACT (France) With the financial support of the European Commission, DG Environment, Convention n° 07-0402/2005/420169/SUB/C2, United Kingdom department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), Spain department of Environment, Italy department of Environment, of Belgium SPF Sécurité de la chaîne alimentaire et Environnement, Finland department of Environment, the Ademe (France) and the DIACT (France) Partenaires du projet “Impact sur l’emploi du changement climatique et des mesures de réduction des émissions de CO2 dans l’Union européenne à 25 à l’horizon 2030”: European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), Instituto Sindical de Trabajo, Ambiente y Salud (ISTAS), Social Development Agency (SDA), Syndex, Wuppertal Institute Sophie Dupressoir Ana Belen Sanchez, Patrick Nussbaumer, Jorge Riechmann Pierre Bobe, Daniel Dubois, Christian Duchesne, Alain Mestre, Jules Monplet, Philippe Morvannou, Jean-François Poupard, Hélène Robert, Mourad Tagzout Vera Höfele, Wolfgang Irrek, Lutz Jarczynski, Dagmar Koths, Magdolna Prantner, Frederic Rudolph, Carolin Schäfer-Sparenberg, Stefan Thomas, Oliver Wagner With the collaboration of Sindnova Matteo Auriemma, Giuseppe d’Ercole Couverture : photos Ademe. Summary Introduction .........................................................................................................................................8 Part I – Impact of climate change in Europe .................................................................................. 10 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 10 2. Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................. 10 3. European Union’s circumstances ........................................................................................................................ 11 3.1. Economic activity............................................................................................................................................. 11 3.2. Employment ...................................................................................................................................................... 12 4. Past and future Climate in Europe...................................................................................................................... 12 4.1. Past climate ........................................................................................................................................................ 12 4.2. Future climate.................................................................................................................................................... 13 5. Sectoral effects of Climate Change ..................................................................................................................... 14 5.1. Overall................................................................................................................................................................. 14 5.2. Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries..................................................................................................................... 16 5.3. Tourism............................................................................................................................................................... 23 5.4. Finance-Insurance............................................................................................................................................ 25 5.5. Health .................................................................................................................................................................. 27 5.6. Infrastructure..................................................................................................................................................... 29 5.7. Energy ................................................................................................................................................................. 31 6. Discussion.................................................................................................................................................................. 32 6.1. Local vs. global, direct costs vs. general equilibrium .............................................................................. 33 6.2. Uncertainty......................................................................................................................................................... 33 6.3. Non-linear and abrupt changes .................................................................................................................... 33 6.4. Adaptation.......................................................................................................................................................... 34 7. Conclusion................................................................................................................................................................. 34 Part II – Overall impact of CO2 emission reduction measures ...................................................... 36 1. Objectives .................................................................................................................................................................. 36 2. Hypotheses ................................................................................................................................................................ 36 3. Sectors in the study ................................................................................................................................................. 37 3 4. Social and economic impact of policies to counteract climate change...................................................... 37 5. Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................. 38 5.1. Definition of scenarios of policies and measures .................................................................................... 38 5.2. The systemic approach ................................................................................................................................... 38 5.3. Quantitative analysis applied to economic sectors .................................................................................. 39 5.4. Combination with a qualitative and empirical approach........................................................................ 39 5.5. Articulation of national and European variables ..................................................................................... 40 6. The relevant emission reduction policies, the scenarios................................................................................ 40 6.1. The relevant climate policies from now until 2030 ................................................................................. 40 6.2. The evolution of EU emissions.................................................................................................................... 44 6.3. The scenarios..................................................................................................................................................... 45 7. Effects anticipated by the players in the 11 Member States studied .......................................................... 48 7.1. A lack of analysis on the fallout for employment on climate policies................................................ 48 7.2. Differing levels of knowledge and of involvement of union organisations...................................... 48 7.3. The expected effect on employment depends on the ambitiousness and the effectiveness of the instruments and policies in place ..................................................................................................... 48 7.4. The overall impact on employment of policies to counter climate change compared with reference scenarios........................................................................................................................................... 49 7.5. The overall impact of CO2 reductions on employment......................................................................... 50 7.6. The effect on skills and job quality.............................................................................................................. 50 7.7. A process of structural change producing winners and losers ............................................................. 51 Part III – Sectoral effects of CO2 emission reduction measures .................................................... 52 1. The electricity generation sector in Europe...................................................................................................... 52 1.1. Current trends: emissions, electricity generation and investments.....................................................