The demand for public transport: a practical guide R Balcombe, TRL Limited (Editor) R Mackett, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London N Paulley, TRL Limited J Preston, Transport Studies Unit, University of Oxford J Shires, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds H Titheridge, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London M Wardman, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds P White, Transport Studies Group, University of Westminster TRL Report TRL593 First Published 2004 ISSN 0968-4107 Copyright TRL Limited 2004. This report has been produced by the contributory authors and published by TRL Limited as part of a project funded by EPSRC (Grants No GR/R18550/01, GR/R18567/01 and GR/R18574/01) and also supported by a number of other institutions as listed on the acknowledgements page. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the supporting and funding organisations TRL is committed to optimising energy efficiency, reducing waste and promoting recycling and re-use. In support of these environmental goals, this report has been printed on recycled paper, comprising 100% post-consumer waste, manufactured using a TCF (totally chlorine free) process. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The assistance of the following organisations is gratefully acknowledged: Arriva International Association of Public Transport (UITP) Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) Local Government Association (LGA) Confederation of Passenger Transport (CPT) National Express Group plc Department for Transport (DfT) Nexus Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Network Rail Council (EPSRC) Rees Jeffery Road Fund FirstGroup plc Stagecoach Group plc Go-Ahead Group plc Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) Greater Manchester Public Transport Transport for London (TfL) Executive (GMPTE) Travel West Midlands The Working Group coordinating the project consisted of the authors and Jonathan Pugh and Matthew Chivers of ATOC and David Harley, David Walmsley and Mark James of CPT. The study was overseen by a Steering Group consisting of the members of the Working Group and the following people whose contribution is also gratefully acknowledged: Chairman: Mike Walsh (DfT) Richard Rampton (National Express) Vince Christie (LGA) Julie Rickard (Network Rail) John Dodgson (NERA) Elaine Rosscraig (Stagecoach) Malcolm Fairhurst (TfL) David Simmonds (David Simmonds Consultancy) Neil Fleming (SRA) Bob Stannard (SRA) Bernard Garner (Nexus) Bill Tyson (GMPTE) Phil Goodwin (UCL) Ian Wallis (Booz Allen Hamilton) Bill Harbottle (Nexus) Richard Warwick (Arriva) Line Juissant (UITP) Andrew Wickham (Go Ahead Group plc) Steve Lowe (MVA) Nigel Wilson (MIT) Roland Niblett (Colin Buchanan & Partners) Mike Woodhouse (Arriva) Derek Palmer (Steer Davies Gleave) Howard Wyborn (EPSRC) In addition there are many people at the authors’ institutions who have contributed to the study. The authors would particularly like to acknowledge the role of Chris Nash of the University of Leeds and Martin Higginson then of TRL in helping to design and initiate the project. Others to whom thanks are due are Joyce Dargay, Phil Goodwin, Mark Hanly, Graham Parkhurst, and Emma Shane at University College London, Paula Bagchi at the University of Westminster, Tom Sanson then of the University of Leeds, Biao Huang and Fiona Raje at the University of Oxford, and Claire Vance and Helen Harper at TRL. iii iv CONTENTS Page Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction 3 1.1 The need for a new report on public transport demand 3 1.2 Scope of the report 4 1.3 Structure of the report 4 2 Setting the scene 5 2.1 Scope of the study 5 2.2 Transport modes 5 2.3 Demand for different forms of public transport 7 2.4 Variations in demand 7 2.5 Trends in public transport demand and provision 11 2.6 Concluding observations 15 3 Summary of findings 15 3.1 Effects of fares 15 3.2 Effects of quality of service 19 3.3 Demand interactions 22 3.4 Effects of income and car ownership 23 3.5 Relationships between land-use and public transport 24 3.6 New public transport modes and services 26 3.7 Effects of other transport policies 28 3.8 Application of elasticity measures and modelling 30 4 Data sources and methodology 31 4.1 Principal data sources on public transport ridership 31 4.2 Measures of aggregate demand 32 4.3 Issues in the use of operator-based data 33 4.4 Use of survey data 34 4.5 Other concepts in market analysis 35 4.6 Data on factors affecting demand 36 4.7 Modelling and elasticities of demand 38 5 Demand functions and elasticities 39 5.1 Introduction 39 5.2 The demand function concept 39 5.3 The elasticity concept 40 5.4 Dynamics and public transport 42 5.5 Effects of demand interactions 45 5.6 The ratio of elasticities approach 46 v Page 5.7 An example of the use of elasticities 46 5.8 Some guidelines on the practical use of elasticities 47 5.9 Incorporation of revealed preferences changes not reflect in 'elasticity' values 48 5.10 Concluding observations 49 6 Effects of fares 49 6.1 Introduction 49 6.2 Types of fares 50 6.3 Elasticity of bus travel 50 6.4 Elasticity of rail travel 51 6.5 Effect of methodology 53 6.6 Effect of types of fare change 55 6.7 Variation of elasticity with type of area 56 6.8 Fare elasticities for different trip purposes 58 6.9 Elasticities for different types of traveller 60 6.10 Elasticity by distance travelled 61 6.11 Effect of ticket types and fare systems 62 6.12 Zero fares 64 6.13 Effect of concessionary fares 64 6.14 Meta-analysis of British fare elasticities 68 6.15 Comparison with the analysis in the 1980 version of the Demand for Public Transport and other major studies 68 6.16 Concluding remarks 69 7 Effects of quality of service: time factors 69 7.1 Introduction 69 7.2 Travel time 69 7.3 Effect of access time to boarding point and egress time from alighting point 72 7.4 Effect of service intervals 73 7.5 Effect of changes in time spent on board the vehicle 78 7.6 Inferring elasticities from attribute valuations 82 7.7 Conclusions 83 8 Effects of quality of service: other factors 83 8.1 Introduction 83 8.2 Effect of the waiting environment 84 8.3 Staff and security 85 8.4 Effect of vehicle or rolling stock characteristics 86 8.5 Effect of interchanges between modes 89 8.6 Reliability 90 8.7 Effect of information provision and promotional activity 91 vi Page 8.8 Impact of marketing campaigns and service quality 94 8.9 Bus specific factors 96 8.10 Conclusions 101 9 Effects of demand interactions 101 9.1 Introduction 101 9.2 Competition between modes 101 9.3 Within mode competition 108 9.4 Concluding remarks 111 10 Effects of income and car ownership 111 10.1 Introduction 111 10.2 The expected effects of income and car ownership on public transport demand 112 10.3 The effect of income on travel expenditure and distance travelled 113 10.4 The effect of income on the demand for public transport 114 10.5 The effect of car ownership on the demand for public transport 115 10.6 Joint effects of income and car ownership on the demand for public transport 117 10.7 Posible variations in income elasticity over time 121 10.8 Conclusions and recommendations 122 11 The relationship between land-use and public transport 122 11.1 Introduction 122 11.2 The effects of land-use on public transport demand 123 11.3 The use of land-use policy to increase the demand for public transport 129 11.4 The effects of public transport on economic growth and development 132 11.5 Public transport as an instrument of planning policy 135 11.6 Conclusions 138 12 New public transport modes 139 12.1 Introduction 139 12.2 Light rail 139 12.3 Guided busways 147 12.4 Park and Ride 149 12.5 Forecasting demand for new services 152 13 Effects of other transport policies 153 13.1 The objectives of transport policies 153 13.2 Infrastructure management 156 vii Page 13.3 Employer subsidies 160 13.4 Congestion charging 160 13.5 Parking 163 13.6 Land use planning 165 13.7 Transport policy integration 165 13.8 Concluding remarks 165 Bibiliography 168 Notes 188 Glossary of Terms 189 Appendix to Chapter 4 192 Appendicies to Chapter 6 194 Preface 194 Appendix to Section 6.1 195 Appendix to Section 6.2 196 Appendix to Section 6.3 197 Appendix to Section 6.4 202 Appendix to Section 6.7.3 207 Appendix to Section 6.7.4 209 Appendix to Section 6.8 211 Appendix to Section 6.14 215 Appendix to Chapter 7 223 Appendix to Chapter 9 225 Apppedix to Chapter 10 226 Abstract 237 Related publications 237 viii Executive Summary This document reports on the outcome of a collaborative extended the coverage from that of the 1980 study to study undertaken by the Universities of Leeds, Oxford and reflect the changing sociological and policy background. Westminster, University College London and TRL. The The most widely estimated parameters have been price objective of the study was to produce an up-to-date elasticities of demand and, in particular, public transport guidance manual for use by public transport operators and fare elasticities. Evidence collected during the study planning authorities, and for academics and other suggests that short-term elasticities, relating to changes in researchers. The context of the study was principally that demand measured soon after changes in fares, may be of urban surface transport in Great Britain, but extensive substantially different from long-term elasticities, based on use is made of international sources and examples.