Enhancing Belize’s Resilience to Adapt to the Effects of Climate Change Project Number 00083646 Contract Number: GCCA/PS/2013/01 In-Depth Final Report Submitted by Climate Change Solutions International/Bhawan Singh Professor Bhawan Singh, PhD: Lead Consultant Assisted by Dr. Calin Obretin, PhD: Associate Consultant And Ms. Marylène Savoie, MSc.: Associate Consultant March 20, 2014 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would at first like to express our gratitude to the Government of Belize, Ministry of Forestry, Fisheries and Sustainable Development and UNDP Belize for giving us the opportunity to undertake this Consultancy on ‘Enhancing Belize’s Resilience to Adapt to the Effects of Climate Change’ (Project Number 00083646;Contract Number: GCCA/PS/2013/01). We would also like to express our gratitude to Mrs. Ann Gordon, Ms. Safira Vasquez and Ms. Idé McKoy of the Belize National Climate Change Office, Ministry of Forestry, Fisheries and Sustainable Development for having facilitated the field work and the logistic arrangements for the project. We are also thankful to Mrs. Diane Wade Moore and Ms. Stephanie Lozano of UNDP Belize for handling all the contract arrangements. We are also grateful to INSMET (Mr. Abel Centella and Mr. Arnoldo Bezanilla) for having provided the ECHAM 5 and HadCM3-QUMP climate scenarios data and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre for facilitating the data transfer. We also recognize the efforts of Ms. Stacey Cayetano in assisting in the data collection locally. Finally, we are thankful to all participants and stakeholders who attended the Validation Workshop and who provided insightful comments on the In-Depth Draft Report. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ACKOWLEDGEMENTS 2 LIST OF ACRONYMS 11 LIST OF TABLES 13 LIST OF FIGURES 21 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 34 1.0 Introduction Section 42 1.1 Coastal Development 43 1.2 Water Sector 44 1.3 Agriculture Sector 45 1.4 Tourism Sector 46 1.5 Fisheries Sector 47 1.6 Health Sector 48 1.7 Cross-cutting Issues 49 References: Introduction Section 50 Section 2: Climate Sector 53 2.0 Introduction 53 2.1 UNDP Country Profiles 54 2.1.1 General Climate of Belize 54 2.1.2 Recent Climate Trends 54 2.1.3 Temperature 54 2.1.4 Precipitation 55 2.2. A-OGCM Projections of Future Climate and Sea Level 55 2.2.1 Temperature 55 2.2.2 Precipitation 56 2.3. Other Regional Climate Changes 56 2.3.1 Tropical Storms and ENSO 56 2.3.2 Sea level Rise 57 2.3.3 INSMET: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of 62 Belize 64 3 3.1 Philip Goldson International Airport (PGIA) in Belize District 63 64 3.1.2 Current Temperature 66 3.1.3 Current Rainfall 67 3.1.4 Future Scenarios/Projections of Temperature and Rainfall 68 3.1.5 Future Scenarios/Projections of Temperature 69 3.1.6 Future Scenarios/Projections of Precipitation/Rainfall 69 3.2 Libertad in Corozal District 70 3.2.1 Current Temperature 71 3.2.2 Current Rainfall 71 3.2.3 Future Scenarios/Projections of Temperature and Rainfall 72 3.2.4 Future Scenarios/Projections of Temperature 73 3.2.5 Future Scenarios/Projections of Precipitation/Rainfall 73 3.3 Belmopan in Cayo District 74 3.3.1 Current Temperature 75 3.3.2 Current Rainfall 75 3.3.3 Future Scenarios/Projections of Temperature and Rainfall 77 3.3.4 Future Scenarios/Projections of Temperature 78 3.3.5 Future Scenarios/Projections of Precipitation/Rainfall 78 3.4 Punta Gorda in Toledo District 79 3.4.1 Current Temperature 80 3.3.2 Current Rainfall 80 3.4.3 Future Scenarios/Projections of Temperature and Rainfall 81 3.4.4 Future Scenarios/Projections of Temperature 83 3.4.5 Future Scenarios/Projections of Precipitation/Rainfall 83 3.5 Inland and Mountainous Stations 84 4.0 Mapping Seasonal Temperature and Rainfall Changes 84 4.1 ECHAM5 and HadCM3Q11 88 4.2 Air Temperature (0C): ECHAM5 92 4.3 Rainfall (mm/season): ECHAM5 96 4.4 Air Temperature (0C): HadCM3Q11 101 4 4.5 Rainfall (mm/season): HadCM3Q11 101 4.6 Summary and Conclusions 102 5.0 Socio-economic Impacts Adaptation 104 References: Climate Sector 104 Coastal Zone/Development Sector 105 1.0 Introduction 106 2.0 Coastal Zone/Methodology 106 2.1 Identification of the region of interest (ROI) 106 2.2 Data 109 2.3 Methodological steps: coastal inundation 131 3.0 Simulations Results 138 4.0 Belize City 138 5.0 Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Impacts 138 5.1 Coastal Zone 139 5.2 Coral Reefs 139 5.3 Mangroves 139 5.4 Seagrass Beds 140 5.5 Agriculture 140 5.6 Fisheries 141 5.7 Tourism 142 5.8 Coastal Erosion 142 5.9 Coastal Communities 144 6.0 Coastal Zone Adaptation 145 7.0 Conclusion 148 References: Coastal Zone Sector 148 Section 4: Water Sector 149 1.0 Introduction and Background 149 2.0 Current Vulnerabilities of the Water Sector 149 2.1 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 150 2.2 Droughts 3.0 Methodology: climate change impacts on regional water 154 5 excess/deficits 4.0 Current (2000-2009) mean monthly values of P, PE and P-ET 160 (mm/day) 5.0 Current (2000-2009) and future (2060-2069) mean monthly values of 168 P, PE and P-ET (mm/day): ECHAM 5 Climate Model 6.0 Current (2000-2009) and future (2060-2069) mean monthly values of 176 P, PE and P-ET (mm/day): HadCM3Q11 Climate Model 178 7.0 Socio-economic Impacts of Water Deficits or Excesses 178 7.1 Agriculture 179 7.2 Hydroelectric Power Generation 179 8.0 Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 8.1 Water Conservancy Management Systems and Protection of 180 Watersheds 180 8.2 Efficient Use of Water in Agriculture 180 8.3 Hydroelectricity 182 9.0 Conclusion 184 References: Water Resources Sector 184 Section 5: Agriculture Sector 185 1.0 Introduction 186 2.0 Methodology 187 3.0 Simulation of Sugarcane Yield Changes 189 3.1 DSSAT-CANEGROW Simulations vs Observed Data 196 3.2 DSSAT-CANEGROW Simulations of Sugarcane Yield Changes 197 4.0 Simulation of Rice Yield Changes 199 4.1 DSSAT-CERES-RICE Simulations vs Observed Data 199 4.2 DSSAT-RICE-CERES Simulations of Rice Yield Changes 201 4.3 Upland Rice 204 4.4 Irrigated Rice 204 5.0 Simulation of Red Kidney Beans Yield Changes 205 5.1 DSSAT-CROPGRO Simulations vs Observed Data for RK Beans 208 5.2 DSSAT-CROPGRO Simulations of RK Bean Yield Changes 212 6 6.0 Simulation of Citrus Yield Changes and Irrigation Requirements 6.1 CROPWAT Simulations vs Observed Data for Yield Reductions of 213 Citrus 6.2 CROPWAT Simulations of Yield Reductions due to Lack of Water 214 for Citrus 6.3 CROPWAT Simulations of Irrigation Requirements for Citrus: 215 Observed vs Models 6.4 CROPWAT Simulations of Irrigation Requirements for Citrus: 217 Current vs Future 7.0 Simulation of Banana Yield Changes due to Lack of Water and 217 Irrigation Requirements 219 7.1 Banana Production and Export 220 7.2 Climate and Climate Change and Banana Production 7.3 CROPWAT Simulation of Banana Yields – Observed vs Simulated: 221 1st Year Production 7.4 CROPWAT Simulations of Yield Reductions (%) for Bananas – 1st 222 Year: Current vs Future 7.5 CROPWAT Simulations of Irrigation Requirements for Banana - 1 st 223 Year Production: Observed vs Models 7.6 CROPWAT Simulations of Irrigation Requirements for Banana – 1 st 225 Year: Current vs Future 7.7 CROPWAT Simulation of Banana Yields – Observed vs Simulated: 226 2nd Year Production 7.8 CROPWAT Simulations of Yield Reductions (%) for Bananas – 2nd 228 Year: Current vs Future 7.9 CROPWAT Simulations of Irrigation Requirements for Banana – 2nd 229 Year Production: Observed vs Models 7.10 CROPWAT Simulations of Irrigation Requirements for Banana – 2nd 231 Year: Current vs Future 231 8.0 Socio-economic Impacts 234 9.0 Adaptation Options 237 7 References: Agriculture Sector 237 Section 6: Fisheries Sector 238 1.0 Introduction 238 2.0 General Description of the Marine Fisheries 238 2.1 Wild Capture Fisheries Sector 238 2.2 Lobster fishery 239 2.3 Conch fishery 239 2.4 Marine Shrimp Fishery 240 2.5 Finfish Fishery 240 2.6 Marine Aquarium Fishery 240 2.7 Other Commodities 242 2.8 Fishing Areas 242 3.0 Aquaculture 242 3.1 Shrimp Aquaculture 243 3.2 Tilapia Aquaculture 243 3.3 Cobia Aquaculture 244 3.4 Location of Aquaculture Operations 244 4.0 Fishermen communities/Socioeconomic importance 245 4.1 Total Number of Fishermen and Boats 245 5.0 Fisheries Production and Revenues 246 5.1 Lobster Production 248 5.2 Lobster Exportation 249 5.3 Conch Production 250 5.4 Conch Exportation 251 5.5 Marine Shrimp Production 252 5.6 Marine Shrimp Exportation 253 5.7 Finfish Production 256 5.8 Finfish Exportation 257 5.9 Aquarium fish exportation 259 5.10 Other Commodities: Stone Crab Claws 260 5.11 Other Commodities: Sea Cucumber 260 8 5.12 Other Commodities: Seaweed 261 5.13 Other Commodities: Red Drum Fish 263 6.0 Fisheries Habitats 263 6.1 Coastal Wetlands: Mangroves 263 6.2 Seagrasses 265 6.3 Coral Reefs 268 7.0 Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries 270 8.0 Non-climate Factors 276 9.0 Adaptation: Fisheries Sector 279 References: Fisheries Sector 279 Section 7: Tourism Sector 281 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Contribution of Tourism to the Economy of Belize: GDP and 289 Employment 294 3.0 Tourist Arrivals 300 4.0 Tourist Attractions and Activities 302 5.0 Tourist Accommodations: Hotels 302 6.0 Climate Change and Tourism 305 6.1 Belize City: Air Temperature and Rainfall 306 6.2 Ambergris Caye: Rainfall 307 6.3 Placencia: Rainfall 308 6.4 Belmopan: Rainfall 308 7.0 Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges 309 7.1 Rise in Ocean Temperature and Acidity 312 8.0 Tourism Sector Adaptation to Climate Change 313 References: Tourism Sector 313 Section 8: Health Sector 313 1.0 Introduction 314 2.0 Climate and Health 314 2.1 Extreme heat 315 2.2 Floods and droughts 315 9 2.3 Tropical storms 2.4