INTRODUCTION Decentralization without democratization or why local democracy matters? 1 ELECTIONS 2019 IN MOLDOVA: NEW CHALLENGES AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION WITHIN UKRAINE-MOLDOVA-ROMANIA TRIANGLE NOVEMBER 2018 This expert analysis was conducted under the coordination of Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” with the support of the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation within the framework of the Civic Synergy Project and under the auspices of the Ukrainian National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum. Its content is the exclusive responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation The International Renaissance Foundation The International Renaissance Foundation is one of the largest charitable foundations in Ukraine. Since 1990 we have been helping to develop an open society based on democratic values in Ukraine. During its activity, the Foundation has supported about 20 thousand projects, to which more than 60 thousand activists and organizations of Ukraine have joined. The funding amounted to over $ 200 million. www.irf.ua www.fb.com/irf.ukraine Civic Synergy Project The Civic Synergy Project is aimed at strengthening public participation in the implementation of European integration reforms in Ukraine, through capacity-building and boosting of activities of the Ukrainian Side of the EU-Ukraine Civil Society Platform (US CSP) and the Ukrainian National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum (EaP CSF UNP). The project is funded by the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation and implemented by IRF’s European Program Initiative. www.civic-synergy.org.u https://www.facebook.com/CivicSynergy Ukrainian National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum The Ukrainian National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum (UNP) is a network of over 200 Ukrainian civil society organizations (CSOs) that aims at advocating Ukrainian interests within the framework of the Eastern Partnership initiative. The Platform, established in 2011, is a part of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum http://eap-csf.org.ua https://www.facebook.com/groups/EaPukr The Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” The Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” is a network-based non-governmental think tank specializing in foreign policy and international security reseaerch. The goal of “Ukrainian Prism” is to enhance expert community participation in a decision-making process in the spheres of foreign policy, international relations, public diplomacy. http://prismua.org https://www.facebook.com/PrismUA ELECTIONS 2019 IN MOLDOVA: NEW CHALLENGES AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION WITHIN UKRAINE-MOLDOVA-ROMANIA TRIANGLE POLICY PAPER 4 4 Policy Paper INTRODUCTION AUTHORS TEAM General editing: Sergiy Gerasymchuk Angela Gramada, director, Experts for Security and Global Affairs Association (Romania) Armand Goșu, associate professor, University of Bucharest, Faculty of Political Science (Romania) Denis Cenușa, researcher, Institute for Political Science Justus-Liebig University (Giessen, Germany), Associat- ed expertiIn the think-tank “Expert-Grup”, contributor news agency IPN (Moldova) Hanna Shelest, head of International Security Studies department, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” Hennadiy Maksak, director, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism”, Ukrainian National Platform coordinator of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum Ileana Racheru, researcher, Romanian Diplomatic Institute Nadia Bureiko, expert, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” Natalia Stercul, program director, Department of Eastern Studies: Ukraine and Russia, Foreign Policy Associa- tion of Moldova Sergiy Gerasymchuk, head of the South-Eastern Europe Studies department, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” Viviana Anghel, associate lecturer, National School of Political Science and Public Administration, faculty of Political Science (Romania) Vlad Lupan, Independent Expert; ex-Ambassador & Permanent Representative of the Republic of Moldova to the United Nations Elections 2019 in Moldova 5 INTRODUCTION CONTENTS MOLDOVA: THE TEST FOR THE DEMOCRATIC AND EUROPEAN CHOICE.................................................................................................................................... 6 General introduction............................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Moldova dialogue and post-electoral scenarios of European path, Denis Cenușa...............................................................................................7 Path the potential of Russian influence in electoral context (the impact of «Russkiy mir»), Natalia Stercul........................................12 The perspectives of the political process and the prospective foreign policy priorities, Vlad Lupan.......................................................17 General conclusions...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................21 UKRAINE: POLITICAL LESSONS FOR MOLDOVA.....................................................................................................................................................................................22 General Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................22 Political situation: conflict factors and consolidation options, Nadia Bureiko.......................................................................................................23 Political stability, war between Russia and Ukraine and search for international support, Hanna Shelest.........................................26 The experience of overcoming the Soviet and Russian political legacy, Sergiy Gerasymchuk....................................................................30 Conclusions and recommendations..........................................................................................................................................................................................35 POLITICAL SITUATION AND POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENTS IN ROMANIA......................................................................................................................................38 Romania: from semi-presidentialism accentuated by the president to semi-presidentialism attenuated by the parliamentary majority, Viviana Anghel....................................................................................................................................................................40 Diplomatic Relations between Romania and the Republic of Moldova, Armand Goșu...................................................................................44 Reunification scenario. Political forces and civil society actors in Romania and the Republic of Moldova that promote the reunification. How realistic is the reunification scenario?, Ileana Racheru......................................................................53 Best practices that Romania can share with Moldova and Ukraine, Angela Gramada....................................................................................58 RESULTS OF THE MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 2018: EFFECTS ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE POLITICAL SITUATION AND FOREIGN POLICY, Hennadiy Maksak, Sergiy Gerasymchuk........................................................................................................................62 Scenario 1. Socialists and Democrats Alliance......................................................................................................................................................................66 Scenario 2. Socialists Victory.........................................................................................................................................................................................................67 Scenario 3. Everybody against the DPM...................................................................................................................................................................................71 Scenario 4. Incapable coalition.....................................................................................................................................................................................................72 General recommendations.............................................................................................................................................................................................................73 6 Denis Cenușa, Natalia Stercul, Vlad lupan Moldova: the test for the democratic and european choice GENERAL INTRODUCTION oldova is an important part of the intricate regional situation in the Black Sea region. Redefining Russia’s Mrole by the states of the region, created the prerequisites for bringing together the positions of Ukraine and Moldova on a whole range of issues, also it led to the resetting of Ukrainian-Romanian relations. Regional transformation was the basis that united the tripartite platform