Department of Political and Social Sciences The Impact of Anti-Immigration Parties on Mainstream Parties’ Immigration Positions in the Netherlands, Flanders and the UK 1987-2010: Divided Electorates, Left-Right Politics and the Pull towards Restrictionism Amber Jane Davis Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Florence, March 2012 EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE Department of Political and Social Sciences The Impact of Anti-Immigration Parties on Mainstream Parties’ Immigration Positions in the Netherlands, Flanders and the UK 1987-2010: Divided Electorates, Left-Right Politics and the Pull towards Restrictionism Amber Jane Davis Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctor of Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Examining Board: Prof. Rainer Bauböck, EUI, for Prof. Peter Mair (†), EUI (supervisor) Prof. Virginie Guiraudon, National Center for Scientific Research, Paris Prof. Meindert Fennema, Universiteit van Amsterdam Prof. Dirk Jacobs, Université Libre de Bruxelles ©2012 Amber Davis No part of this thesis may be copied, reproduced or transmitted without prior permission of the author. Davis, Amber (2012), The Impact of Anti-Immigration Parties on Mainstream Parties' Immigration Positions in the Netherlands, Flanders and the UK 1987-2010: Divided electorates, left-right politics and the pull towards restrictionism European University Institute DOI: 10.2870/4016 Abstract The rise of anti-immigration parties across Western Europe has put enormous pressure on mainstream parties to adapt their competitive strategies. This thesis tests the hypothesis that mainstream parties have reacted to the rise of an anti-immigration party by taking up more restrictive immigration positions. Previous research on the impact of the rise of an anti-immigration party on immigration positioning is sparse, and centres mostly on the supply side of the political market using one-dimensional left-right explanations, which generally do not provide a satisfactory framework to explain party movement. This thesis is based on a spatial two-dimensional model of political competition and combines analyses of the demand and the supply side of the political market. Focusing on the cases of the Netherlands, Flanders and the UK in the time-period 1987-2010 it shows that parties ultimately respond to electoral pressure when choosing their immigration strategy. The thesis has three main findings. Firstly, voters perceive their parties to have too liberal immigration preferences, causing a persistent anti-immigrant gap to exist. In combination with high divisiveness of the immigration issue for mainstream party constituencies the anti- immigrant gap provides opportunities for an anti-immigration party to emerge strongly in multi-party systems. Secondly, the electoral market on immigration is characterised by conflicting incentives, which makes successfully reacting to an anti-immigration party very difficult, especially for traditional mainstream parties. Thirdly, patterns of political competition on the immigration dimension reflect these conflicting incentives. On the one hand, the high divisiveness of the issue at party level urges mainstream parties of left, centre and right equally to depoliticise. Accordingly, parties tend to compete with relatively liberal immigration positions in the absence of a credible threat by an anti-immigration party. On the other hand, a correlation between the left-right and the immigration dimension on the demand side of the political market at party system level creates a pull towards restrictionism, which is stronger for parties on the right. Once an anti-immigration party presents a credible threat parties indeed react by moving their immigration position closer to that of the anti-immigration party following a left-right logic, sometimes dramatically so. The party system strongly impacts the dynamics of indirect impact: in the UK mainstream parties never lose the initiative on immigration to an anti-immigration party. i Davis, Amber (2012), The Impact of Anti-Immigration Parties on Mainstream Parties' Immigration Positions in the Netherlands, Flanders and the UK 1987-2010: Divided electorates, left-right politics and the pull towards restrictionism European University Institute DOI: 10.2870/4016 Table of Contents Acknowledgements x CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 Central Themes of Research 3 The ‘gap’ hypothesis 4 Constraints on party movement 5 Indirect impact 7 Research Design 8 Case selection: the countries 8 Case selection: the parties 9 Time frame 10 Structure of the Thesis 11 CHAPTER 2 The Dynamics of Indirect Impact 15 Introduction 15 Earlier Work 17 One‐dimensional models of spatial competition: a critique 17 Two‐dimensional models 19 The Argument: How Indirect Impact Works 24 Theoretical Underpinnings of the Argument 25 Modelling party behaviour 25 Essential preconditions: barriers to entry & cross‐party consensus 26 Indirect impact: Votes versus Ideology 28 Electoral incentives: left‐right preferences versus immigration preferences 29 Electoral constraints: divisiveness 31 Some Qualifications 33 Endogenous public opinion 33 Political rhetoric versus policy reality 34 Conclusion 35 CHAPTER 3 Trump or Joker? The Anti­immigrant Gap and Playing the Immigration Card 37 Introduction 37 Structure of the chapter 40 The Anti­Immigrant Gap & Indirect Impact: Three Crucial Assumptions 42 The mass‐elite opinion gap 42 ii Davis, Amber (2012), The Impact of Anti-Immigration Parties on Mainstream Parties' Immigration Positions in the Netherlands, Flanders and the UK 1987-2010: Divided electorates, left-right politics and the pull towards restrictionism European University Institute DOI: 10.2870/4016 Voter preferences & the left‐right dimension 43 Opinion leadership: the role of parties 44 Left‐right ideology and preference formation on ‘new’ issues 44 The Anti­Immigrant Gap versus Opinion Leadership and Left­Right Absorption 45 Immigration politics: evidence to date 47 Data 49 Results – The Netherlands 51 Asylum 51 Integration 56 Discussion 60 Results Flanders 63 Immigrant Rights 63 Discussion Flanders 67 Results – United Kingdom 69 The 2005 asylum debate 69 Discussion United Kingdom 75 Conclusion 77 CHAPTER 4 Constraints on Indirect Impact: Moral Politics, Public Attitudes and the Ethnic Minority Vote 81 Introduction 81 Structure of the chapter 85 The Dimensionality of Political Space: The Left­Right and the Immigration Dimension 87 Electoral constraints: the correlation of attitudes 90 Dynamics of Political Competition: Correlation, Divisiveness, and Absorption by the Left­Right Dimension 92 The Ethnic Minority Vote: Electoral or Ideological Constraint? 96 A Critique: Issue Ownership and Party Reputation 100 Method and Data 102 Empirical results ­ The Netherlands 104 Correlation between left‐right and immigration dimension 104 Comparison of means test 107 Regression analysis: absorption by the left‐right dimension 108 Divisiveness 109 Conclusion the Netherlands 112 Empirical Results Flanders 113 Correlation between left‐right and immigration dimension 113 iii Davis, Amber (2012), The Impact of Anti-Immigration Parties on Mainstream Parties' Immigration Positions in the Netherlands, Flanders and the UK 1987-2010: Divided electorates, left-right politics and the pull towards restrictionism European University Institute DOI: 10.2870/4016 Comparison of means test 116 Regression analysis 118 Divisiveness 119 Conclusion Flanders 122 Empirical Results United Kingdom 124 Correlation between left‐right and immigration dimension 124 Comparison of means test 126 Regression analysis 128 Divisiveness 129 Conclusion United Kingdom 131 Conclusion 132 CHAPTER 5 Reactions to the Rise of an Anti­Immigration Party: Political Competition on Immigration in the Netherlands, Flanders and the United Kingdom: Content Analysis of Party Manifestos 1987 – 2010 137 Introduction 137 Immigration Politics: The Liberal Elite Consensus 139 Method 140 Analysis: The Netherlands 145 Dutch elections 1989 – 2010 147 Conclusion The Netherlands 156 Analysis: Flanders 157 Flemish elections 1987‐2010 160 Conclusion Flanders 169 Analysis: United Kingdom 171 United Kingdom Elections 1987‐2010 174 Conclusion United Kingdom 184 Conclusion 185 CHAPTER 6 Conclusion 191 Bibliography 203 Annex 1 209 Chapter 3: Data, Question Texts and Results 209 Netherlands 209 Data used 209 Question text 209 Results 210 iv Davis, Amber (2012), The Impact of Anti-Immigration Parties on Mainstream Parties' Immigration Positions in the Netherlands, Flanders and the UK 1987-2010: Divided electorates, left-right politics and the pull towards restrictionism European University Institute DOI: 10.2870/4016 Question text 210 Results 211 Flanders 212 Data used 212 Question text 212 Results 212 United Kingdom 213 Data used 213 Question text 213 Opinion Polls 213 Annex 2 214 Chapter 4: Data and Question Texts 214 Data used 214 Question text 214 Trust‐related control variables 215 Annex 3 216 Chapter 4: Results Regression Analysis 216 Annex 4 219 Chapter 5: Data and Variable List 219 Data used 219 Variable List Chapter 5 219 v Davis, Amber (2012), The Impact of Anti-Immigration Parties on Mainstream Parties' Immigration Positions in the Netherlands, Flanders and the UK 1987-2010: Divided electorates, left-right politics and the pull towards restrictionism European University Institute DOI: 10.2870/4016 Table of Figures Figure 2.1. A Model