Fifth Study Conference on BALTEX Kultuurivara Kuressaare, Saaremaa, Estonia 4 - 8 June 2007 Conference Proceedings Editor: Hans-Jörg Isemer Jointly organized by Estonian Maritime Academy Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht GmbH Conference Committee Franz Berger, German Weather Service, Germany Jüri Elken, Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia Hans-Jörg Isemer, GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht, Germany Daniela Jacob, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Germany Sirje Keevallik, Estonian Maritime Academy, Estonia Friedrich Köster, Danish Institute for Fisheries Research, Denmark Joakim Langner, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden (Chair) Walter Leal, TuTech Innovation GmbH, Germany Andreas Lehmann, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Germany Juha-Markku Leppänen, HELCOM, Finland Anders Omstedt, Göteborg University, Sweden Jozef Pacyna, Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Norway Jan Piechura, Institute of Oceanology PAS, Poland Dan Rosbjerg, Technical University of Denmark Markku Rummukainen, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden Bernd Schneider, Baltic Sea Research Institute Warnemünde, Germany Benjamin Smith, Lund University, Sweden Timo Vihma, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland Hans von Storch, GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht, Germany Ilppo Vuorinen, University of Turku, Finland Preface The science and implementation plans for BALTEX Phase II (2003-2012) are in place since 2004 and 2006, respectively. Therefore, the 5th Study Conference on BALTEX is a first possibility to review how these research plans have been adopted and implemented by the research communities at national and international levels. About 2/3 of the more than 120 papers presented at the Conference contribute to meeting the new objectives of BALTEX Phase II, which are related to climate and climate variability research, water management issues, and air and water quality studies. This appears to be a clear indication that the development of BALTEX into a broader environmental research programme focussed on the Baltic Sea and its huge catchment area is well underway. For the first time, the Conference is conducted in co-operation with other organisations and programmes, which have a dedicated activity profile in areas where BALTEX research is contributing to, including HELCOM, the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission; LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone), a core-project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP); the INTERREG IIIB Project ASTRA (Developing Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region); the European Union’s Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Ensemble- based predictions of climate changes and their impacts); and the FP6 Network of Excellence EUR-OCEANS (Network of Excellence for Ocean Ecosystem Analysis). The Conference will therefore offer a forum for exchange of ideas and planning of future joint initiatives and projects. Timing and location of the Conference follow the BALTEX tradition: The conduction of international BALTEX Conferences on Baltic Sea islands in three years intervals. Following previous BALTEX Study Conferences on Gotland (1995), Rügen (1998), Åland (2001) and Bornholm (2004), the BALTEX community is assembling on the Estonian island of Saaremaa now in 2007 with the Cultural Centre Kultuurivara of the island’s capital Kuressaare as the Conference venue. This proceeding volume contains abstracts of all papers, both oral presentations and posters, given at the Conference. They are ordered according to the Conference sessions and the Conference programme. The Conference was jointly organised by the Estonian Maritime Academy, the Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology, the Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute and the International BALTEX Secretariat at GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht, Germany. We thank Edith Kallaste and Kelly Otsman at Reisiekspert Ltd in Tallinn for local preparations of the Conference. Geesthacht, June 2007 Hans-Jörg Isemer Editor Partners HELCOM Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission LOICZ Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone ASTRA Developing Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region ENSEMBLES Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts EUR-OCEANS European Network of Excellence for Ocean Ecosystems Analysis Sponsors Estonian Maritime Academy Marine Systems Institute at Tallinn University of Technology Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SIDA - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency GKSS Research Centre Geesthacht, Germany - I - Contents Title Authors.......................................................................................................................................page The World Climate Research Programm– Achievements and Future Vladimir Ryabinin (solicited).......................................................................................................... 1 GEWEX Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observation Project John Roads (solicited) ..................................................................................................................... 3 Common Research Interests for LOICZ and BALTEX in the Baltic Sea Area Jozef M. Pacyna (solicited) ............................................................................................................. 4 Performance of an Ensemble of RCMs over the BALTEX Area from the Inter- Continental Transferability Study (ICTS) Burkhardt Rockel, B. Geyer, R.W. Arritt, J. McGregor, W.J. Gutowski Jr., C. Jones, I. Meinke, D. Paquin, J. Roads, E. Takle, U. Willén ..................................................................... 6 BALTEX Contribution to GEWEX: Independent Estimates of the Water and Energy Budgets in the Baltic Sea Region? Daniela Jacob .................................................................................................................................. 7 Investigation of the Water and Energy Budgets in the BALTEX Area, as Simulated in a Regional Climate Model Petter Lind, E. Kjellström ............................................................................................................... 8 The Contribution of the BALTEX In-situ Reference Sites to CEOP Frank Beyrich, W. Adam, F. Bosveld, J. Poutiainen, T. Savunen ................................................ 10 Comparison of Air-Sea Fluxes in the Uncoupled and Coupled BALTIMOS System Philip Lorenz, D. Jacob, A. Lehmann .......................................................................................... 12 Advances in Weather Radar Based Quantitative Precipitation Measurements for the Purposes of Climate Research Jarmo Koistinen, T. Kuitunen, D. Michelson ............................................................................... 13 Estimating Climate Trends using GPS Tobias Nilsson, J. Johansson, M. Lidberg, G. Elgered ................................................................. 15 Observations and Modelling of a Cold-Air Outbreak over the Gulf of Finland Lorenzo Claveri, T. Vihma, H. Savijärvi, B. Tammelin............................................................... 17 Recent Advances in the Physical Oceanography of the Gulf of Finland Kai Myrberg, T. Soomere, M. Leppäranta, A. Nekrasov.............................................................. 19 Modeling the Pathways and Ages of Inflowing Salt- and Freshwater in the Baltic Sea Markus H. E. Meier....................................................................................................................... 23 Testing a New Swell-Dependent Drag Coefficient in a Process Oriented Ocean Model Björn Carlsson, A. Rutgersson, A.-S. Smedman .......................................................................... 25 - II - How Do We Know That Human Influence is Changing the Climate in the Baltic Sea Region? Hans von Storch, J. Bhend (solicited).......................................................................................... 27 Towards the Detection of a Human Induced Climate Change in Northern Europe Jonas Bhend, H. von Storch .......................................................................................................... 29 Precipitation Pattern in the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin and its Dependence on Large- Scale Atmospheric Circulation Jaak Jaagus .................................................................................................................................... 31 Long-Term Temperature, Salinity, and Sea Level Records from the Baltic Sea Entrance Kristine Madsen, N. Højerslev...................................................................................................... 33 Air Mass Seasonality and Winter Season Cold Air Masses in Latvia Anita Draveniece........................................................................................................................... 35 Modelling the Baltic Sea Ocean Climate on Centennial Time Scale; Temperature and Sea Ice Daniel Hansson, A. Omstedt......................................................................................................... 37 Trends of Temperature and Salinity of the Baltic Sea for the Period 1969-2005 and long- term Variability of Winter Water Mass Formation Andreas Lehmann, H.-H. Hinrichsen, S. Febiri, G. Tschersich...................................................