ISSN 1728-5445 eclac subregional studies and headquarters SERIES PERSPECTIves for the caribbean Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean 2016-2017 Dillon Alleyne Don Charles Michael Hendrickson Sheldon McLean Machel Pantin Nyasha Skerrette 55 Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean 2016-2017 Dillon Alleyne Don Charles Michael Hendrickson Sheldon McLean Machel Pantin Nyasha Skerrette 2 This document has been prepared by Sheldon McLean, Coordinator of the Economic Development Unit, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) subregional headquarters for the Caribbean, with the assistance of Dillon Alleyne and Michael Hendrickson, Economic Affairs Officers; Machel Pantin and Nyasha Skerrette, Economic Affairs Assistants; Don Charles, Economic Research Assistant; and Lindy-Ann Edwards-Alleyne, Staff Assistant. 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Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC of such reproduction. 2 ECLAC – Studies and Perspectives Series – The Caribbean – No. 55 Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean… Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 7 A. The world economy and its prospects ...................................................................................... 7 B. Growth performance in the Caribbean ..................................................................................... 8 C. Unemployment ....................................................................................................................... 10 I. Macroeconomic policy ................................................................................................................. 13 A. Fiscal policy and public debt .................................................................................................. 13 1. The fiscal balance ........................................................................................................... 13 2. Fiscal flexibility ............................................................................................................. 16 3. Public debt ..................................................................................................................... 16 4. Debt service payments ................................................................................................... 17 B. Monetary policy, domestic credit and inflation...................................................................... 18 1. Interest rates ................................................................................................................... 18 2. Money supply and credit ................................................................................................ 21 3. Inflation .......................................................................................................................... 22 II. The external sector ....................................................................................................................... 25 A. Current account ...................................................................................................................... 25 B. Terms of trade ........................................................................................................................ 26 C. Foreign direct investment ....................................................................................................... 27 III. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 29 IV. Country notes ............................................................................................................................... 31 A. Bahamas ................................................................................................................................. 31 B. Barbados ................................................................................................................................ 33 C. Belize ..................................................................................................................................... 35 D. Eastern Caribbean Currency Union........................................................................................ 37 E. Guyana ................................................................................................................................... 40 F. Jamaica ................................................................................................................................... 42 3 ECLAC – Studies and Perspectives Series – The Caribbean – No. 55 Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean… G. Suriname ................................................................................................................................ 44 H. Trinidad and Tobago .............................................................................................................. 46 Series: issues published................................................................................................................. 49 Tables Table 1 Actual and projected growth rates 2015-2017 ......................................................................... 8 Table 2 Latin and Caribbean GDP growth rates, 2011-2017 ............................................................... 8 Table 3 Visitor expenditure (foreign spending), 2012-2016 .............................................................. 10 Table 4 Unemployment rates, 2010-2016 .......................................................................................... 11 Table 5 Fiscal expenditure by category, 2013-2016 ........................................................................... 15 Table 6 Fiscal flexibility index, 2012-2016 ....................................................................................... 16 Table 7 Total public debt, 2012-2016 ................................................................................................ 18 Table 8 External debt service payments and debt service ratios, 2012-2016 ..................................... 19 Table 9 Lending rate, deposit rate and spread, 2015-2016 ................................................................. 20 Table 10 Monetary aggregates and domestic credit to the public and private sector, 2015-2016 .................................................................................... 22 Table 11 Caribbean inflation rates, June 2015-June 2016 .................................................................... 23 Table 12 Bahamas: main economic indicators, 2014-2016 .................................................................. 33 Table 13 Barbados: main economic indicators, 2014-2016 ................................................................. 35 Table 14 Belize: main economic indicators, 2014-2016 ...................................................................... 37 Table 15 Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: main economic indicators, 2014-2016 ........................ 39 Table 16 Guyana: main economic indicators, 2014-2016 .................................................................... 41 Table 17 Jamaica: main economic indicators, 2014-2016 .................................................................... 44 Table 18 Suriname: main economic indicators, 2014-2016 ................................................................. 46 Table 19 Trinidad and Tobago: main economic indicators, 2014-2016 ............................................... 48 Figures Figure 1 Fiscal balance and total public debt for the Caribbean, 2016 ................................................ 14 Figure 2 Caribbean inflation rates, June 2015-June 2016 .................................................................... 23 Figure 3 Composition of current account, 2012-2016 ......................................................................... 26 Figure 4 Terms of trade, 2012-2016 .................................................................................................... 27 Figure 5 Foreign direct investment, 2012-2016 ................................................................................... 27 4 ECLAC – Studies and Perspectives Series – The Caribbean – No. 55 Preliminary overview of the economies of the Caribbean… Abstract The Caribbean recorded economic growth of only 0.8 per cent in 2016 but growth is expected to rebound to 2.4 per cent in 2017.The poor performance observed in 2016 was primarily due to a 3.7 percent contraction in the