Victorian Election 2002 2002 VICTORIAN STATE ELECTION 30 November 2002 SUMMARY OF RESULTS Introduction ....................................................................................................1 Summary of Redistribution ...........................................................................3 Legislative Assembly Results Summary of Results ..............................................................................7 Detailed Results by District ................................................................. 12 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ........................................... 27 Regional Summaries ........................................................................... 33 Legislative Council Results Summary of Results ............................................................................ 35 Detailed Results by Province .............................................................. 37 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results ........................................... 41 By-Elections ................................................................................................. 43 Changes in Parliamentary Membership ..................................................... 44 Antony Green ABC Election Unit July 2003 Victorian Election 2002 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting Member .... 'Ghost' candidate, where party contesting in 1999 was absent in 2002 Party Abbreviations ALP Labor Party CDP Christian Democrats CEC Citizens Electoral Council DLP Democratic Labor Party DEM Australian Democrats GRN Australian Greens HOP Hope Party IND Independent LIB Liberal Party NAT National Party ONP One Nation OTH Others SOC Socialist Alliance Important Dates Issue of Writs 5 November 2002 Close of Rolls 8 November 2002 Close of Nominations 15 November 2002 Election Day 30 November 2002 Return of Writs 13 December 2002 Victorian Election 2002 INTRODUCTION This paper contains a summary of the results of the 2002 elections for the Victorian Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council. It contains details of voting for all Assembly districts and Council provinces. Primary and two-party preferred counts are given for all electorates. The following paragraphs explain the format for the results. First Count: The vote shown for each candidate is the total primary vote received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each electorate. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the 1999 election from the percentage received in 2002. Where the parties contesting the district differ from 1999, ghost candidates indicated by "...." have been included representing candidates not contesting the 2002 election. As a result, all primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the final distribution of preferences in an electorate. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote by the formal vote. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the 1996 election. Adjusting for the Redistribution A major redistribution was conducted between the 1999 and 2002 elections. All 1999 results used in this publication have been adjusted to take account of the new boundaries. All swings are calculated compared to the adjusted party percentage from 1999. It should be noted that the party status of some electorates notionally changed as a result of the new boundaries. A summary of the redistribution is provided on page 3. This table shows both the old and new margins in each electorate, and also provides notes on electorates where members retired or moved to contest a different electorate. There are some minor variations to estimates in my previous publication on the redistribution. By-elections have not been used in calculating new margins. The summary also includes estimates of margins for the new Legislative Council provinces. Estimates are based on the results of the 1999 election, but it should be noted that the members facing election at the 2002 election were those members last election in 1996. Two-candidate preferred versus Two-Party Preferred vote The two-candidate preferred count for an electorate is defined as the final tally after the exclusion and distribution as preferences of votes from all other candidates. At each stage of the count, the candidate with the least votes is excluded, and his or her votes are distributed to candidates remaining in the count based on the voter's preferences as filled in on the ballot paper. To achieve victory, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote, though in electorates where a candidate achieves victory either on the primary vote or before the final distribution of preferences, a two- candidate preferred count is carried out for information purposes. The two-party preferred count represents a distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Liberal-National Party Coalition. Candidates are again excluded based on lowest progressive vote, though at some points the second lowest candidate is excluded to retain candidates representing Labor and the Coalition. In most cases, the two-party preferred count will be the same as the two-candidate preferred count. At the 2002 election, the final two competing candidates in eight electorates (Brunswick, Gippsland East, Melbourne, Mildura, Northcote, Richmond, Rodney, Shepparton) did not represent a two-party preferred contest. In these electorates, the Victorian Electoral Commission conducted additional two- party preferred counts for information purposes. These counts have been used in the analysis of two- party preferred votes on page 27. Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 1 Victorian Election 2002 At the 1999 election, the Labor Party did not contest two Legislative Council provinces. The two- candidate preferred vote of the Australian Democrat candidate in Higginbotham and for the Green candidate in Templestowe have been used as the two-party preferred vote for 1999. A note on Preference Counts The Victorian Electoral Commission uses two methods to count preferences. On election night, and in the processing of declaration votes, an indicative throw of preferences is carried out between candidates nominated in advance as likely to be the two final candidates in the count. In electorates where one candidate achieves more than 50% of the primary vote, no formal distribution of preferences is carried out, and this indicative booth count is used as the final count after preferences. In electorates where no candidate achieves a majority on the primary vote, or where the nominated candidates for the indicative throw proved not to be the final two candidates after all votes were counted, a formal distribution of preferences takes place. As a result of this, there are occasional minor discrepancies between the formal and two-party preferred counts. Votes accepted as formal on the night and included in the indicative count may sometimes be excluded in later scrutiny. The discrepancies produced are only small in number and do not affect the result in any electorate. Corrections to Official Results The following minor errors in the official returns have been corrected in this publication. The first preference vote for the Liberal and Independent candidates at the Noble Park booth in the electorate of Lyndhurst were transposed and the error has been correct in this publication. There was a significant error in the two-party preferred count of Absent votes in Preston and this has been replaced by an estimated value that alters the two-party preferred count for the electorate. There have also been minor adjustments to the final two-party preferred counts in Cranbourne, Footscray and Narre Warren South. Booth two-party preferred errors were also located in Frankston, Kilsyth, Monbulk, Swan Hill and Yan Yean, but these do not change electorate totals. By-elections There were two by-elections conducted between 1999 and 2002. The Labor Party gained both seats, the Burwood electorate of former Premier Jeff Kennett from the Liberal Party in December 1999, and the Benalla electorate of former National Party Leader Pat McNamara in May 2000. The results of both by-elections can be found on page 43. In addition, two by-elections for the Legislative Council were conducted in conjunction with the 2002 election. These were for East Yarra and Western provinces. Note that these by-elections were conducted on the old province boundaries used in 1999, not the redistributed boundaries. This created administrative difficulties for the Electoral Commission, and also means enrolment details and historic results differ from the provincial general election held the same day. Details of both by- elections can be found on page 43. Acknowledgments and Disclaimer All results are based on the official statistics published by the Victorian Electoral Commission, apart from the corrections noted above. All calculations of swing as well as the re-calculation of the 1999 election result to match the new electoral boundaries are the responsibility of the author. Antony Green ABC Election Analyst July 2003 2 Antony Green – ABC Election Unit Victorian Election 2002 Summary of Redistribution S e a t s H e l d b y P a r t y State of Parties Labor Liberal National Ind. Total Old Boundaries 42 36 7 3 88 New Boundaries 39 39 7 3 88 Including by-elections 41 38 6 3 88 Abolished Electorates (5) Name Margin Notes Bennettswood LIB 6.1 MP Ron Wilson contest