The Economic Geography of the Gwydir and Macquarie River Catchment Towns: Current Features, Future Prospects and Challenges Dr Neil Argent, Dr Fran Rolley and Assoc. Prof. Tony Sorensen Division of Geography and Planning University of New England ARMIDALE N.S.W. 2351 Disclaimer This report was prepared for Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water NSW (DECCW) by Dr Neil Argent, Dr Fran Rolley and Assoc. Prof. Tony Sorensen, Division of Geography and Planning, University of New England. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of DECCW, and DECCW make no representation as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the content for any particular purpose. Readers should seek appropriate advice as to the suitability of the information for their particular needs. 1 Executive Summary This report identifies the economic, social and demographic linkages between the various towns within two economically important catchment regions in central and northern New South Wales – the Macquarie-Bogan and Gwydir river catchments. This is seen as an important preliminary step to identifying the likely economic, demographic and social impacts upon rural towns of any long-term restricted access to irrigation water for agricultural production. As stipulated by the Department of Environment and Climate Change, the contents and findings of this report are the result of secondary data analysis and literature review only. Our findings are the result of detailed analyses of the most current and reliable data sources available. Although the Gwydir catchment encompasses a wide variety of farming enterprise types, broadacre cropping and grazing dominates agriculture land use by area. The Macquarie-Bogan catchment is an even more agriculturally heterogeneous region than the Gwydir, incorporating a wide range of intensively farmed horticultural crops (including stone and pome fruits, citrus and wine grapes), cotton, drygrown broadacre crops and livestock grazing. The dominant crops by value across both catchments in 2001 were cotton (29.6% of all production by value), cereals for grain (27.4%), livestock for meat (20.9%) and wool (13.5%). Of these commodities only cotton is substantially irrigated. Other irrigation-dependent crops, such as fruit, wine grapes, vegetables and lucerne hay, are all present in both river catchments but only account for approximately six per cent of total output by value. Cotton production is highly concentrated, with over 17.5 % of the total output of both catchments combined emanating from a single Shire (Moree). Three other shires – Narromine, Warren and Bourke – account for just over a further ten per cent. Overall, the value of farm production rose 151% in Gwydir between 1993 and 2001, after allowing for inflation. The comparable figure for Macquarie was 128%. The overall rise for both catchments was 136%. A key spatial unit of analysis used in the report are ‘social catchment areas’, devised by Smailes, et al. (2002a). Each rural social catchment area centres on a single significant population centre, with the extent and boundaries of each determined by an algorithm using the mass of the centre (with town population as a proxy measure) and road distance between other nearby centres. The demographic, economic, social and agricultural characteristics of each catchment area were identified through the allocation of census variables at the census collectors district (CCD) level on a pro rata basis. Using Smailes, et al’s (2005) analysis of the changing demographic and socio- economic trajectories of south-eastern Australian rural communities from 1981 to 2001, the majority of the social catchment areas of both river catchments were grouped into two broad zones: a ‘tablelands/ranges’ cluster, characterised by varied environments, higher rainfall farming, relatively low farm production values per unit area and comparatively high degrees of remoteness; and an ‘inland/remote’ cluster. This latter zone features low annual rainfall, low rural population densities and very low farm production values per unit area. Only one community – Orange – fell into the high rural population density, high accessibility ‘high access’ cluster. No river catchment communities fell into two other quite dynamic clusters: the coastal and the mixed farm zones. Analysis of some defining demographic, socio-economic and employment characteristics of each cluster revealed that the inland/remote zone is strongly 2 associated with long-term population decline, accelerated ageing, low rates of in- migration and relatively high dependence upon agriculture for employment. The other cluster well represented within the two river catchments – the tablelands and ranges – while still heavily reliant upon agriculture, has been less affected by demographic decline. Both zones stand in strong contrast to the coastal and high access zones, which have experienced the fastest rates of overall population growth and rural population density increases. The remoter communities within both river catchments have far greater dependence upon agriculture as an employer than those better watered and more accessible communities to the east. Any dramatic change in access to critical farming inputs, such as irrigation water, could have a drastic impact upon the workforces and economies of the smaller towns (e.g. Tullamore, Trangie, Tottenham) within the more irrigation-dependent shires of Warren, Narromine and Moree, because there are few, if any, alternative industries to soak up retrenched farm labour, short of the rapid discovery of new, non-irrigation dependent enterprises. At finer degrees of spatial resolution, towns within both river catchments have experienced strongly contrasting trends in terms of their aggregate population and demographic structure. While youth out-migration is now a standard feature of virtually all Australian non-metropolitan regions, it has affected the larger regional centres least and the smaller, remoter communities most. In the remote towns young women and girls are overrepresented in out-migration flows. These trends are leading to accelerated ageing (i.e. above the level expected by the general ageing of the mainstream population) in many of the least accessible and most agriculturally dependent towns. In some remote towns where comparatively large Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander populations are resident, fertility levels are higher and the population ageing process is somewhat reduced. There is an emerging dichotomy in the demographic trajectories of towns given their position in the settlement hierarchy. The population of the smaller, least accessible urban centres and localities tends to be heavily dependent on agriculture, whereas the most diversified economic bases, as demonstrated by industry of employment, are to be found in the larger regional centres. It is these large towns at the top of the urban hierarchy which also have relatively high proportions of the workforce employed in professional, para-professional and managerial occupations and fewer in the more vulnerable, unskilled occupations in labouring, trade and elementary clerical positions. Individual median incomes are also higher and unemployment rates generally lower in these regional centres. One of the longest-standing truisms of rural Australia is that the fortunes of the country towns dotted throughout the landscape are fundamentally dependent upon the economic performance of agriculture within their hinterlands. Over recent decades this assumption has come under increasing scrutiny, particularly as agriculture has become less important as a land use and employer in the many well- watered, highly accessible regions surrounding capital cities, regional centres and in select coastal areas. The notion of ‘uncoupling’ can be seen to apply, for example, to large parts of the New South Wales’ Far North Coast which were opened up for dairying via ‘closer settlement’ programmes; areas which have since been effectively ‘taken over’ by alternative lifestyle seekers, new modes of agriculture and by more standard rural residential development. In such regions, farming forms a relatively small and declining share of local employment and regional income and output. 3 Given the very strong negative correlation between rural population densities and remoteness (established in Smailes, et al. 2002b), and between density and the proportion of the community population (including town residents) employed in agriculture, together with the strong positive correlation between rural population densities and the diversity of industries within a community, it is clear that those remoter rural communities with the lowest rural densities and the greatest dependence upon irrigation-fed agriculture will be most affected by any further rationing of irrigation water. Any measure which further hampers farmers’ attempts to diversify their operations towards higher value crops and produce can only serve to impact negatively upon the local economics of agriculture. Those parts of the two river catchments that are situated within the more accessible and higher amenity (and higher rural density) regions are much more economically and demographically robust than their remoter counterparts. They generally depend little upon agriculture and so should be relatively unaffected by further restrictions to irrigation water. This is not to say that the residents of the many towns in these parts of the catchments will not face any short- or long-term difficulties