1 1 CONTENTS Forward Page 2 Executive Summary Page 3 1. Strategic Case Page 8 2. Economic Case Page 19 3. Financial Case Page 26 4. Commercial case Page 31 5. Management Case Page 45 Appendices Appendix A SELRAP’S Response to the Northern Route Utilisation Strategy - Draft for Consultation Page 48 Appendix B SELRAP's Response to the Consultation on the LTP Plan 2011-2016 Draft Strategy for North Yorkshire CC Page 53 Appendix C SELRAP's Response to the Consultation on the LTP Plan 2011-2021 Draft Strategy for Lancashire CC Page 56 Appendix D JMP Report Market Assessment and Cost benefit Analysis – Module 3 Page 60 Appendix E Evidence of protection of trackbed Page 76 Appendix F Train usage patterns Page 79 Appendix G SELRAP Membership & Support Page 81 Please contact: Derek Jennings, 3 Hamilton Road, Carr Hall, Barrowford, Lancashire, BB9 6DE Tel. 01282 690411 email: [email protected] or visit the SELRAP website: www.selrap.co.uk SELRAP wishes to thank Colne Connected, who have kindly sponsored this document 2 FOREWORD It i s quite fitting that this Funding Development Plan is being launched in SELRAP’s 10 th anniversary year. Established in 2001, SELRAP’s campaign to see the railway line between Skipton and Colne re- opened as part of a strategic inter-regional route connecting both sides of the Pennines and catalyst for a wider scheme aimed at improving rail services across East Lancashire, has achieved overwhelming support from all quarters. As part of the campaign the group has hosted a number of high profile conferences. Aimed at providing a springboard for crucial developments, each attracted speakers more routinely to be found at national events. Our 2006 conference paved the way for commissioning JMP Consulting to carry out a study to GRIP 1/2 level. Published in November 2007, the study concluded that, with a benefit-cost ratio of up to 2.43:1, the Skipton-Colne line has a promising future. Taking a peek into the future, Network Rail stated within the Lancashire & Cumbria Route Utilisation Strategy, published in 2008, that “Should the promoters of the scheme to reopen the route from Skipton to Colne be successful in securing funding, then it is likely that this line will have been reopened.” Speaking at our 2009 conference, Shadow Transport Ministers, MPs, MEPs, Consultants, Planners and Rail Industry Senior Figures, combined to conclude that the case for reopening the rail line between Skipton and Colne was proven beyond doubt. And that the time had come to move towards delivery of this landmark project. Mindful of that crucial outcome, in 2010 SELRAP commissioned Jonathan Roberts Consulting to examine the options available for progressing the scheme and to recommend its future direction. The report looked at the organisational requirements and the timescales involved, and identified a project development consortium as the way forward. Further to this, on the suggestion of the Rail Freight Group, and with the backing of major rail infrastructure contractors, SELRAP is exploring the notion of a package that could see the provision of road/rail freight interchange and [eventual] electrification as a full east-west route. At SELRAP’s tenth anniversary celebratory conference, held earlier this year, Local Authority representatives, Train Operating Company Senior Figures, MPs, an MEP and a Member of the House of Lords added to the consensus that only funding stands in the way of the rebuild. And that innovative packages embracing private investors, inclusion within future franchise bids, Train and Freight Operating Companies, and more, might be the way forward. More recently still, on the advice of none other than the Rt. Hon. Theresa Villiers, the Minister of State for Transport, who indicated that Fund “can be used to address transport issues which act as a barrier to growth, for example through tackling traffic congestion, connecting people to job opportunities and maximising agglomeration benefits”, SELRAP has submitted a bid to the Regional Growth Fund. SELRAP’s aim is now to secure further funding, be it public or private, for further studies to GRIP 3 /4 level, and beyond, together with sufficient capital, to see the reopening of the Skipton-Colne rail line project through to an early conclusion. I have pleasure in recommending this report to you. Thank you, in anticipation, Derek Jennings Chairman, SELRAP July 2011 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SELRAP is the Skipton East Lancashire Rail Action Partnership. It was established on 10 th April 2001 with the objective of campaigning for the reinstatement of the railway between Skipton and Colne as an important part of the national network, to form a trans-Pennine route linking North and West Yorkshire and the Leeds City Region with the towns of Pennine Lancashire and the Manchester and Liverpool City regions. A main objective of the Partnership is to repeat the success of other recent rail re-openings in Scotland and Wales, all of which have exceeded their predicted passenger numbers. Recently SELRAP has been in dialogue with national rail industry contractors, and are developing a strategy to achieve their aims. Vision To build a modern electrified rail line between Skipton and Colne carrying passenger and freight traffic and thereby: • Providing a commuter service between the towns of [eastern] Pennine Lancashire, Airedale and Leeds • Offering improved connectivity for the towns of Central and Pennine Lancashire • Allowing commuter traffic from Skipton, Keighley, Airedale, and more, into Manchester via a reinstated Todmorden Curve • Establishing access to Manchester Airport from Skipton, Keighley and Airedale • Facilitating links to Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool and the proposed high speed rail link to London and Europe • Creating a link between the East and West Coast Main Lines and Ports • Avoiding the congestion in and around Manchester • Relieving pressure on the busy Huddersfield and Calder Valley trans-Pennine routes. • Allowing for the establishment of rail freight interchange distribution facilities Implementation costs Estimates of the cost of constructing and operating a railway between Skipton and Colne were originally made by consultants in 2003 and have been updated in 2007 by JMP Consultants in a study carried out for SELRAP. This provided options including single and double track, but not the inclusion of freight traffic. The JMP report covered the level of detail required for Network Rail GRIP (Governance to Railway Investment Projects) Stage 1, which requires a level of costing confidence of ±40%. The trackbed is largely intact and could be restored at a relatively low cost. Construction costs taken for this document were estimated by JMP Consulting, and involve the provision of a double track 4 railway between Skipton and Gannow Junction, with two new stations, and second platforms at all the stations on the Colne branch east of Gannow Junction - £80.7 million, (at 2007 prices). Additionally, the costs of inflation [since 2007] and electrification would add a further £40m, giving a total project cost of £120m. New innovation with combined electrification and embedded rail technology could significantly reduce these costs. A further engineering study would be required to GRIP 3 level to provide up to date costings and the feasibility to run electric freight units at W10/12 loading gauge. The study [which it is anticipated will cost ¼ to ½ % of the total project costs] would provide up to date Annual costings and show improved financial feasibility that the inclusion of Freight would bring. (For the original annual costing guides, including demand and revenue forecasts, please see the JMP Consulting report published October 2007). Passenger Operations There are a number of revenue streams that may be generated by passenger operations. It is clear that Network Rail greatly underestimate the potential for passenger growth with their current methods. They openly admitted this at the recent Northern RUS feedback meetings organised by Passenger Focus. The histories of Leeds station development; the Airedale line; Stirling to Alloa; Ebbw Vale etc. over the last few years, have all heavily underlined this. Fare increases may dent that growth by driving traffic back to the roads, but the increase in demand for rail travel continues to exceed Network Rail’s current methodology. In addition to fares, there are parking revenues; and revenues from retail, commercial and residential developments in conjunction with stations. Elsewhere, these elements have contributed to the business cases for the railways concerned. While that may not, of necessity, be the case here, a level of contribution is expected. A number of companies have been identified that might have an interest in this type of development. Investigation of the possibilities is ongoing. In summary, while it is not expected that the fare income alone will justify the re-instatement, it forms an important part of the jigsaw. Also, there is good reason to believe that the contribution from this source has been greatly under-estimated in the past. Freight Operations Because the earlier studies discounted freight, the detailed analysis of the freight possibilities is not as far advanced as those for the passenger side. Passenger traffic is linked to population centres, but freight is linked to business opportunities. So it is that with freight, there is an additional difficulty in estimating likely traffic over paths that do not currently exist. However, there is also an opportunity here, in that once the link is in place, freight operators will begin to plan their business taking this into account. This effect is well illustrated by the Settle to Carlisle line. From a position where it was going to be closed, it has now become an important freight link from Hunterston to the Yorkshire power stations. The Skipton to Colne link will provide the lowest gradient route across the Pennines, an important economic factor for freight.