Interrelationships between Internal and International Migration in Egypt: A Pilot Study Ayman Zohry Forced Migration & Refugee Studies Program American University in Cairo July 2005 Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty University of Sussex Falmer, Brighton BN1 9SJ United Kingdom E-mail: [email protected] i Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION: ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Objectives of this study .............................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Methods and materials............................................................................................................... 4 2. A LITTLE THEORY ..................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Linkages of Internal and international migration......................................................................... 6 2.2 Internal vs. international migration ............................................................................................. 7 2.3 Migration and development........................................................................................................ 8 3. INTERNAL MIGRATION.............................................................................................................. 9 3.1 Characteristics of Egyptian Internal Migration............................................................................ 9 Trends and Directions of Internal Migration............................................................................ 9 One-Step versus Multi-Step Migration...................................................................................11 Characteristics of Migrants....................................................................................................12 The Decision-Making Process...............................................................................................12 Modes of Adjustment.............................................................................................................13 Causes of Internal Migration..................................................................................................13 3.2 Rural/Urban Migration ...............................................................................................................15 3.3 Inter-Governorate Migration ......................................................................................................17 Governorate Migration Indices ..............................................................................................20 3.4 History of Internally Displaced Persons.....................................................................................22 Forced Migration after the 1967 War.....................................................................................22 The Aswan High Dam and the Nubian Exodus .....................................................................22 3.5 New Types of Internal Migration................................................................................................23 4. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION .................................................................................................24 4.1 Phases of international migration..............................................................................................24 Phase 1: The Early Phase of Migration (Before 1974) ..........................................................25 Phase 2: The Expansion Phase (1974-l984).........................................................................26 Phase 3: The Contraction Phase (1984-1987) ......................................................................27 Phase 4: The Deterioration Phase (1988-1992)....................................................................28 Phase 5: The Recent Phase (1992-2004) .............................................................................29 ii 4.2 Temporary versus Permanent Migration ...................................................................................30 Temporary Migration .............................................................................................................31 Permanent Migration.............................................................................................................35 3.3 Illegal Migration.........................................................................................................................39 5. FINDINGS FROM THE FIELD....................................................................................................39 5.1 Fieldwork in Upper Egypt ..........................................................................................................39 5.2 Fieldwork in Cairo .....................................................................................................................57 6. DISCUSSION..............................................................................................................................74 6.1 Who migrates internally/internationally, and who stays behind? ...............................................74 6.2 Migration routes and sequences ...............................................................................................81 6.3 Migration typologies within the families .....................................................................................84 6.4 Migration and development: internal vs. international ...............................................................86 7. CONCLUDING REMARKS.........................................................................................................90 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................................92 iii 1. INTRODUCTION: Migration in Egypt is strongly influenced by poverty, economic difficulties, and improper socio- economic policies. Until the mid-1950s, foreigners came to Egypt but Egyptians rarely migrated abroad. Egyptian emigration was not only a reflection of the oil boom in the Arab Gulf countries and the need for manpower in neighboring countries, but also of economic problems and high rates of population growth in Egypt. Internal migration was a natural response to poverty and the uneven distribution of economic activities, and played a major role as a balancing mechanism, as Egyptian migration flows to the Gulf and elsewhere began. Internal migration still plays a major role in sustaining the livelihoods of many families in rural Egypt. The dominant geographical feature of Egypt is the River Nile. The Nile represents the main source of water for agriculture, and consequently is a major determinant of the spatial distribution of population and economic life. Administratively, Egypt is divided into 27 governorates; four of them are totally urban (Cairo, Alexandria, Port Said, and Suez). Nine governorates are found in the Nile Delta (Lower Egypt), which extends from Cairo to the Mediterranean Sea, and nine are located in the Nile Valley (Upper Egypt). An additional five frontier governorates are found on Egypt’s western and eastern boundaries (See Figure 1 for more details). Rapid population growth is one of the crucial problems that have hindered development efforts in Egypt. While the doubling of Egypt’s population between 1897 and 1947, from 9.7 million to 19 million, took fifty years, the next doubling took less than thirty years, from 1947 to 1976. Today, Egypt’s population is about 72 million. The annual population growth rate is around two percent. About 95 percent of the population is crowded into around five percent of the total land area that follows the course of the Nile. The remaining 95 percent of the land is desert. Although it can be seen as a kind of ‘natural response’ to the geography of economic opportunity, migration to large cities has further unbalanced Egypt’s population distribution. Figure 1 Map of Egyptian Governorates 2 Associated with rapid population growth is a high level of unemployment. Official estimates placed unemployment at about 9 percent in 2004, but independent estimates push the number up to 20 percent. However, to control unemployment, Egypt will need to achieve a sustained real GDP growth rate of at least 6 percent per year. The economy has to generate between 600,000 and 800,000 new jobs each year in order to absorb new entrants into the labor force. Between 1990 and 1997, however, only about 370,000 new jobs were created each year. The size of the informal sector and the level of over-employment in the public sector add to the complexity of the problem. With about 2.7 million Egyptians abroad (1.9 million in the Arab Gulf countries) and the severity of overpopulation and unemployment, Egyptian migration can be seen as a survival and livelihood strategy. At the macro level, Egypt’s economy relies mainly on four sources of income: tourism, remittances from Egyptians working abroad, revenues from the Suez Canal, and oil. 1.1 Objectives of This Study This is a pilot study that explores the interrelationships between internal and international migration in Egypt. The project involves both desk study (statistical data and literature) and new primary research based on field interviews in Upper Egypt and Cairo. Since there are no studies on the interrelationship between internal and international migration in Egypt, the literature and