Humber LEP Skills Advisory Panel Report Data Analysis Final Report 2 Contents Page Executive Summary 3 Introduction 12 Stage 1: Analysis and definition of local landscape 15 Stage 2: Analysis of skills demand 51 Stage 3: Analysis of skills supply 72 Stage 4: Mapping of skills demand and supply 112 Stage 5: Conclusions 137 Appendix Survey Analysis Stakeholder Workshop Feedback Humber LEP Employment and Skills Board – Terms of Reference 3 Executive Summary Executive Summary 4 Introduction + Stage 4: Mapping of skills demand and supply The Humber Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) has a + Stage 5: Conclusions commitment to driving growth across the Humber Stage 1: Analysis and definition of local landscape economy for the benefit of communities in the four The analysis in Stage 1 provides an overview of the local authority areas of Hull, East Riding, North current economic and skills landscape in the Humber Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire. LEP and explains how it performs/has performed Crucial to ensuring the economic success of the relative to other geographical areas. Humber is having a well-skilled and productive The Humber LEP region is home to 930,000 people workforce which is able to take advantage of the and incorporates a diverse range of urban, rural, economic opportunities in the area. The development coastal and industrial locations. The region is a highly of the Skills Advisory Panel requirements, with the self-contained labour market, with many of those support of the Department for Education will provide living in the area also working locally. This presents the Humber LEP with high quality analysis of the skills both opportunities and challenges and makes the and employment needs to inform the area’s skills Humber more vulnerable to economic shocks. agenda. This will assist the LEP in fulfilling its local leadership role within the skills system and develop The area has a number of economic challenges, with a action plans to address skills issues which, in turn, can significant labour productivity gap. Productivity give more people in the local community access to (output per hour worked) in the Humber is 17% lower high quality skills provision that leads to good jobs. than across England. Economic inactivity is also a feature of the Humber, accounting for 23% of all This report follows the structure set out in working age residents. A high proportion of those the Analytical Framework and Toolkit to analyse the currently inactive want a job however, and under- current skills profile of the Humber LEP and identify employment of the existing workforce is an issue. This the skills challenges faced locally. This follows five points to a lack of jobs, with the Humber having 0.79 main stages jobs per working-age resident compared to 0.87 + Stage 1: Analysis and definition of local landscape nationally. + Stage 2: Analysis of skills demand + Stage 3: Analysis of skills supply Executive Summary 5 Stage 1: Analysis and definition of local landscape concentrations of households in receipt of government (cont’d) payments, for example 13.5% of low income or out-of- The Humber has experienced lower rates of pay work households in North East Lincolnshire claim growth than England. Around 13% of all jobs are on Universal Credit to help with their living costs. To underline the barriers to participation, North East the minimum wage (19% in North East Lincolnshire) th and job security is an issue facing the Humber’s Lincolnshire scores 309 out of 324 local authorities on workers, with an estimated 2.4% of the workforce on the Social Mobility Index, illustrative of the social zero hours contracts. mobility challenges which exist. There are, however, a number of economic Stage 2: Analysis of skills demand opportunities going forward. The Humber’s Energy Stage 2 provides an in-depth analysis of the current Estuary ambitions has seen high levels of employment and future demand for skills in the Humber LEP area. growth within the offshore wind and wider energy In general, many businesses across the Humber can sector, and there has been strong employment growth access the skills they need for their business to grow in other target sectors and higher level occupations. To and expand. There are however reported skills gaps, drive inclusive growth, there is a need to facilitate a with 13% of businesses reporting a substantial skills match between the skills of the labour force and the gap in the workforce. Those skills which are demands of employers. particularly lacking according to employers, include The Humber also faces a number of demographic specialists skills needed within sector, particularly challenges in the future, including a below average technical and practical skills. There also remains a proportion of working-aged population and an ageing number of hard to fill vacancies, particularly in skilled workforce which contributes to a shrinking pool of trades, professionals/associate professionals and labour for employers to draw on. machine operatives occupations. Tackling these Socially, there are high levels of deprivation in the identified skill gaps and shortages is key to enhancing Humber, with 22% of LSOAs in the Humber amongst business competitiveness and allowing the Humber to 10% most deprived nationally. The rural and coastal take full advantage of economic opportunities when characteristics of the Humber brings an additional they arise. dimension to skills needs. There are also Executive Summary 6 Stage 2: Analysis of skills demand (cont’d) also expected to be strong demand for higher skilled The Humber has achieved relatively strong workers more generally, with over 60,000 more employment and business growth over the last five workers qualified to Level 4 and above (L4+) needed years, reflecting a renewed economic optimism across by 2024 within the Humber. the area. Sectors which have experienced strong growth in the level of employment over the last five Stage 3: Analysis of skills supply years includes tourism, property, professional services, business administration and transport and storage. Stage 3 provides an analysis of the current skills supply The profile of the Humber’s occupations has also and availability in the Humber. shifted, with growth experienced in higher value The Humber has an extensive range of education occupations such as managers, professionals and provision including five Further Education (FE) colleges associate professionals. There are a number of major and four Sixth Form Colleges, two University Technical projects in the pipeline in the Humber which will need Colleges (UTCs) and the University of Hull. This is in to be serviced. The skills system needs to be addition to over 300 circa private training providers, responsive to these changing demands. many of whom deliver specialised training in areas Barriers to investment in training by employers do such as advanced engineering and health and social exist. Whilst many of the Humber’s employers are care. There is also more provision in the pipeline investing in upskilling their workforce, the amount of including the development of two Institutes of training days that the Humber’s workers receive lags Technology and University Campus in North behind national averages. Lincolnshire and the planned development of a new University Campus with the University of Lincoln and Forecasts of labour demand points to high demand Grimsby Institute. There are a range of skills and within sectors such as wholesale and retail, health and employability interventions being delivered providing social work, education and construction. Whilst the labour force with the opportunity to participate, employment in the manufacturing sector is expected upskill and reskill. to decrease in net terms, there is a high degree of replacement demand required to address the outflow of workers due to retirement, relocation etc. There is Executive Summary 7 Stage 3: Analysis of skills supply (cont’d) and digitalisation. Reported barriers to take up of training provision by A further risk to the supply of labour in the Humber is businesses include availability of staff time, lack of Brexit. There is a relatively high funds, and lack of time to organise the training. reliance in some sectors in the Humber on EU workers, Addressing these barriers through a flexible and particularly in the manufacturing sector where 10% of affordable skills system is key to encouraging workers come from the EU. employers to invest. Despite improvements over time, the Humber has a The Humber has experienced low levels of population relatively low qualified workforce, with just over 26% of growth (only 2% in the last 10 years) and a reduction in the working age population qualified to Level 4+ the working age population which has fallen by nearly compared to 35% nationally. The economically 3% since 2011. The population in the Humber is inactive in the Humber tend to have a lower ageing, placing a greater dependency on working age qualification profile (66% have NVQ Level 2 or lower people. This has implications for the size of the labour skills). This presents additional barriers to accessing force to service employer demands, and places employment opportunities which place increasing pressure on services catering for an increasingly older value on higher level skills. Looking ahead, Working population. In mitigation, employers are sourcing Futures data predicts that 46% of jobs in the Humber workers from further afield. Travel to work analysis will require Level 4+ qualifications. This indicates a indicates those with Level 4+ qualifications travel mismatch between the current qualification profile further to work. Attracting and retaining graduates in and future demands. A current DfE review into the the Humber also provides a mechanism of boosting technical standards for Level 4 & 5 qualifications will the higher skilled labour supply. Upskilling/reskilling add clarity to the requirements of higher level skill the current workforce is also an important qualifications, signaling more effectively the demands consideration, particularly as the retirement age of higher level occupations.