DEVELOPMENT CENTRE STUDIES CHINESE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN THE LONG RUN BY ANGUS MADDISON DEVELOPMENT CENTRE STUDIES CHINESE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN THE LONG RUN By Angus Maddison DEVELOPMENT CENTRE OF THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: – to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy; – to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic development; and – to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations. The original Member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland (22nd November 1996) and Korea (12th December 1996). The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD Convention). The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was established by decision of the OECD Council on 23rd October 1962 and comprises twenty-three Member countries of the OECD: Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland, as well as Argentina and Brazil from March 1994. The Commission of the European Communities also takes part in the Centre’s Advisory Board. The purpose of the Centre is to bring together the knowledge and experience available in Member countries of both economic development and the formulation and execution of general economic policies; to adapt such knowledge and experience to the actual needs of countries or regions in the process of development and to put the results at the disposal of the countries by appropriate means. The Centre has a special and autonomous position within the OECD which enables it to enjoy scientific independence in the execution of its task. Nevertheless, the Centre can draw upon the experience and knowledge available in the OECD in the development field. Publi´e en fran¸cais sous le titre : L’ECONOMIE´ CHINOISE Une perspective historique THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED AND ARGUMENTS EMPLOYED IN THIS PUBLICATION ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE AUTHOR AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THOSE OF THE OECD OR OF THE GOVERNMENTS OF ITS MEMBER COUNTRIES. * ** OECD 1998 Permission to reproduce a portion of this work for non-commercial purposes or classroom use should be obtained through the Centre fran¸cais d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC), 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, Tel. (33-1) 44 07 47 70, Fax (33-1) 46 34 67 19, for every country except the United States. In the United States permission should be obtained through the Copyright Clearance Center, Customer Service, (508)750-8400, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA, or CCC Online: http://www.copyright.com/. All other applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this book should be made to OECD Publications, 2, rue Andr´e-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. Foreword This study was undertaken in the context of the Development Centre’s 1996–98 research programme entitled “The Reform and Growth of Large Developing Countries”. It follows earlier work published by the Development Centre by the same author under previous work programmes. Those titles were The World Economy in the 20th Century (1989) and Monitoring the World Economy, 1820–1992 (1995). 3 4 Table of Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................... 10 Preface .......................................................................................................................................................... 11 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 1 Intensive and Extensive Growth in Imperial China ......................................................................... 19 Chapter 2 Economic Decline and External Humiliation, 1820–1949 .............................................................. 39 Chapter 3 Dynamics of Development in the New China ................................................................................. 55 Chapter 4 The Outlook for China and the World Economy, 1995–2015 ......................................................... 95 Appendix A Performance in Farming, Fishery, Forestry and Agricultural Sidelines, China 1933–95................ 101 Appendix B Industrial Performance, China 1913–95 .......................................................................................... 139 Appendix C Growth and Level of Chinese Gross Domestic Product .................................................................. 149 Appendix D Population and Employment ............................................................................................................ 167 Appendix E Foreign Trade ................................................................................................................................... 175 Appendix F People and Places in Pinyin and Wade–Giles .................................................................................. 179 Maps .......................................................................................................................................................... 182 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................................... 185 5 List of Chapter Tables, Figures and Box Table 1.1 Chinese Imperial Dynasties and Capital Cities .................................................................................... 20 Table 1.2 Rough Comparative Estimates of the Population of China, Europe, India, Japan and World, 50–1995 A.D. ........................................................................................................................................ 20 Table 1.3 “Guesstimated” Level of Chinese and European GDP per Capita, 50–1700 A.D. .............................. 25 Table 1.4 Land Use and Population in China and Other Parts of the World, 1993 .............................................. 28 Table 1.5a Dated Irrigation Works by Dynasty ...................................................................................................... 30 Table 1.5b Irrigated Area, 1400–1995 .................................................................................................................... 30 Table 1.6 Major Magnitudes in Chinese Farming, 1400–1952 ............................................................................ 32 Table 1.7 Rozman’s Urban Ratios for China from T’ang to Later Ch’ing ........................................................... 35 Table 1.8 De Vries’ Estimates of Urban Population of Europe, 1000–1800 A.D. ............................................... 35 Table 2.1 Comparative Levels of Economic Performance, China and Other Major Parts of the World Economy, 1700–1995 ...................................................................................................... 40 Table 2.2a Shares of World GDP, 1700–1995 ........................................................................................................ 40 Table 2.2b Rates of Growth of World GDP, 1700–1995 ........................................................................................ 40 Table 2.2c Rates of Growth of World Per Capita GDP, 1700–1995 ...................................................................... 41 Table 2.3 Population by Province, China 1819–1953 .......................................................................................... 47 Table 2.4 Exports Per Capita, China, India and Japan, 1850–1995 ..................................................................... 49 Table 2.5 Structure of Chinese GDP in 1933 Prices, 1890–1952......................................................................... 49 Table 2.6 Length of Railway Lines in Service, 1870–1995 ................................................................................. 51 Table 2.7 Stock of Direct Foreign Investment, China, 1902–36 .......................................................................... 51 Table 2.8 Leading Items in Chinese Commodity Trade, 1937 ............................................................................. 52 Table 3.1 Growth of GDP, by Sector, at Constant Prices, China 1890–1995 .....................................................