ROMANIA Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on the Bucharest Urban Development Program (P169577) COMPONENT 1. ELABORATION OF BUCHAREST’S IUDS, CAPITAL INVESTMENT PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT Output 3. Urban context and identification of key local issues and needs, and visions and objectives of IUDS, and identification of a longlist of projects Chapter 1. Socio-economic profile March 2021 DISCLAIMER This report is a product of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. This report does not necessarily represent the position of the European Union or the Romanian Government. COPYRIGHT STATEMENT The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable laws. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with the complete information to either: (i) the Municipality of Bucharest (Bd. Regina Elisabeta 47, Bucharest, Romania); or (ii) the World Bank Group Romania (Str. Vasile Lascăr 31, et. 6, Sector 2, Bucharest, Romania). This report was delivered in March 2021 under the Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on the Bucharest Urban Development Program, concluded between the Municipality of Bucharest and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development on March 4, 2019. It is part of Output 3 under the above-mentioned agreement – Urban context and identification of key local issues and needs, and vision and objectives of IUDS and Identification of a long list of projects – under Component 1, which refers to the elaboration of Bucharest’s Integrated Urban Development Strategy, Capital Investment Planning and Management . ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been delivered under the provisions of the Reimbursable Advisory Services Agreement on the Bucharest Urban Development Program and has been prepared under the guidance and supervision of Christoph Pusch (Practice Manager, Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience for Europe and Central Asia) and Tatiana Proskuryakova (Country Manager, Romania and Hungary). The report has been prepared by a team under the coordination of Dean Cira (Lead Urban Specialist) and composed of Andreea Maier (Senior Urban Development Specialist), Ioana Ivanov (Senior Urban Development Specialist), Daiana Ghintuială (Urban Development Specialist), Amelia Pîrvu (Analyst), Manuela Stănculescu (Lead Social Inclusion Specialist), Ana Bulai (Lead Sociologist), Georgiana Blaj (Senior Social Inclusion Specialist), Cătălina Iamandi (Senior Social Inclusion Specialist), Monica Marin (Social Inclusion Specialist), Ironim Corad (Social Inclusion Specialist), Marius Cristea (Senior Urban Development Specialist), Sorina Racoviceanu (Lead Urban Development Specialist), Marcel Ionescu- Heroiu (Senior Urban Development Expert), Florin Botonogu (Social Inclusion Speciaist), Oana Franț (Operations Specialist), Bianca Butacu (Analyst), Adina Vințan (Operations Specialist), Ioana Irimia (Communications Specialist) și George Moldoveanu (Information Assistant). The team would like to express its gratitude for the excellent cooperation, guidance, and timely feedback provided by the representatives of the Municipality of Bucharest, especially Mr. Nicușor Dan, Mr. Sorin Chiriță, Mr. Cătălin Zoican, Ms. Adriana Duțu, Ms. Luminița Glodea, and by the many other local and regional partners that have contributed to the elaboration of this report. ABREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAC Autoclaved Aerated Concrete AROPE A composite indicator adopted at European Union level CFR Romanian Railways CLLD Community-led local development DGASMB Bucharest General Directorate for Social Assistance DGASPC and the Bucharest General Directorate for Social Assistance DGASPC General Directorates for Social Assistance and Child Protection EU European Union EUROSTAT Statistical office of the European Union. FUR Ferentari Urban Regeneration GDP Gross Domestic product IT&C Information Technology and Communication IUDS Integrated Sustainable Urban Development Strategy LAG Local Action Group MRDPA Ministry of Regional Development and Public Administration NGO Non-Governmental Organization NIS National Institute of Statistics PHC Primary Health Care ROP Regional Operational Programme UMA Urban Marginalized Areas UN United Nations UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE, ETHNIC AND DENOMINATIONAL PROFILE ............................. 2 1.1. Romania in the European and global demographic context .......................................... 2 1.2. Population. Number and dynamics ................................................................................. 4 1.3. Ethnic and denominational profile ............................................................................... 11 1.4. Educational profile ........................................................................................................ 17 2. POPULATION EVOLUTION AND MIGRATION TRENDS ...................................................... 19 2.1. Natural movement ........................................................................................................ 19 2.2. Internal and external migratory movement ................................................................. 24 2.3. Population forecast ....................................................................................................... 31 3. LOCAL DEVELOPMENT AND COMMUNITIES .................................................................... 33 3.1. Poverty in Bucharest ..................................................................................................... 33 3.1.1. The risk of poverty in the Bucharest-Ilfov region ..................................................... 33 3.1.2. Subjective poverty of the people of Bucharest ........................................................ 35 3.1.3. Quality of life in Bucharest compared to other European capitals .......................... 44 3.2. The marginalized areas of Bucharest ............................................................................ 72 3.2.1. Urban Marginalized Areas (UMAs) in Romania ........................................................ 72 3.2.2. The UMAs in Bucharest according to the data from the 2011 census ..................... 75 3.2.3. The Bucharest UMAs in 2020 .................................................................................... 79 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................... 104 ANNEX 1. THE RISK OF POVERTY BY REGIONS ........................................................................... 110 ANNEX 2. COMPARATIVE DATA ON POPULATION AND INCOME, AT REGIONAL LEVEL ................ 111 ANNEX 3. DATA ON THE COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION IN BUCHAREST USED IN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS .............................................................................................. 113 ANNEX 4. LIST OF VALIDATED AND INVALIDATED UMAS IN BUCHAREST .................................... 114 ANNEX 5. QUALITY ASSESSMENT SHEETS FOR THE VALIDATED UMAS ....................................... 119 Străulești community ............................................................................................................. 119 Giulești-16 Februarie Community .......................................................................................... 121 Pantelimon Alley Community ................................................................................................ 123 Lunca Florilor Alley Community ............................................................................................. 125 Plumbuita Community – Tei Toboc ........................................................................................ 127 Maica Domnului Community ................................................................................................. 129 Basarabia Boulevard Community........................................................................................... 131 Prof. Dimitrie Pompeiu Boulevard Community ..................................................................... 133 1 December 1918 Community, blocks T1 and T2 .................................................................. 135 Cioplea Alley Community ....................................................................................................... 137 Vâlsănești community ............................................................................................................ 139 Iosifești community................................................................................................................ 141 Industriilor Community .......................................................................................................... 143 Brățării Community ................................................................................................................ 145 No. 2-12, Nehoiu Alley Community, blocks F2 and F3 ........................................................... 147 89 Metalurgiei Blvd. Community, block B2............................................................................ 149 Iacob Andrei Community ......................................................................................................