DEMOGRAPHIC DIVERSITY AND ECONOMIC CHANGE IN APPALACHIA by Diane K. McLaughlin Daniel T. Lichter Stephen A. Matthews with the assistance of Glynis Daniels and James Cameron Population Research Institute 601 Oswald Tower Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA 16802 814-865-0486 Final Draft July 31, 1999 Table of Contents List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ ii List of Maps ............................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures......................................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1. Appalachia: Past Is Prologue?.................................................................................1 Chapter 2. Population Distribution and Composition.............................................................31 Chapter 3. Population Change and Net Migration in Appalachia ..........................................83 Chapter 4. Social and Economic Well-Being in Appalachia................................................133 Chapter 5. Jobs and Workers in Appalachia.........................................................................187 Chapter 6. Appalachia: Challenges for the Future................................................................252 List of Tables Table 1.1 Beale Code Definitions and Number of Appalachian Counties, 1993 ....................17 Table 1.2 Criteria for Classification of Counties by Economic Level (Distressed County Codes) for FY 1998 .................................................................................................22 Table 1.3 Cross classification of Appalachian Counties by 1993 Beale Codes and 1998 Distressed County Codes .................................................................................23 Table 1.4 Cross-classification of Appalachian Region Counties by Sub-region and 1998 Distressed County Codes ..........................................................................24 Table 2.1 Percentage of U.S. Population in Appalachia Region, 1980, 1990, 1996 ...............34 Table 2.2 Population Density in Appalachia and the United States ........................................35 Table 2.3 Percentage of Appalachia Population Across Beale Codes, 1980, 1990, 1996.......37 Table 2.4 Percentage of Appalachia Population Across 1998 Distress Codes, 1980, 1990, 1996.................................................................................................................39 Table 2.5 Population Density in Appalachia by Beale Codes, 1980, 1990, 1996 ...................40 Table 2.6 Population Density in Appalachia by 1998 Distress Codes, 1980, 1990, 1996 ......41 Table 2.7 Ten Most and Least Populous Counties in Appalachia, 1996 .................................43 Table 2.8 Age Distribution (%) in Appalachia, 1980, 1990, 1996 ..........................................47 Table 2.9 Age Distribution in Appalachia and the United States, 1996..................................51 Table 2.10 Age Distribution Across Distress Codes, 1996 .....................................................54 Table 2.11 Dependency Ratios in Appalachia, 1980, 1990, 1996...........................................58 Table 2.12 Dependency Ratios in Appalachia by 1998 Distress Codes, 1980, 1990, 1996....59 Table 2.13 Ten Oldest and Least Old Counties in Appalachia, 1996......................................60 Table 2.14 Ten Youngest and Least Young Counties in Appalachia, 1996............................61 Table 2.15 White, Black and Hispanic Populations in Appalachia and the United States, 1980, 1990, 1996...........................................................................................64 Table 2.16 Distribution of Black Population Across Appalachian Sub-regions, 1980, 1990, 1996.......................................................................................................65 Table 2.17 Distribution of Black Population Across Distress Codes, 1980, 1990, 1996 ........66 Table 2.18 Ten Counties in Appalachia with Highest Percentage and Highest Number of Black Persons (non-Hispanic), 1996 ....................................................................69 Table 2.19 Distribution of Hispanic Population Across 1998 Distress Codes, 1980, 1990, 1996.......................................................................................................71 Table 2.20 Ten Counties in Appalachia with Highest Percent and Number of Hispanic Persons (Any Race), 1996 .........................................................................74 Table 2.21 Foreign Born Population in Appalachia and the United States, 1980 and 1990 ...75 Table 2.22 Percentage of Foreign Born Across 1998 Distress Codes, 1990 ...........................76 Table 2.23 Ten Counties in Appalachia with Highest Percentage and Number of Foreign Born, 1990 ...................................................................................................77 Table 3.1 Components of Population Change in Appalachia, 1981-1996 (grouped)..............85 Table 3.2 Components of Population Change in Appalachia, 1981-1996...............................87 Table 3.3 Annual Population Growth Rate (%) and Net County Migration Rate (%) in Appalachia and the United States, 1981-1996......................................................89 ii Table 3.4 Annual Population Growth Rate (%) and Net County Migration Rate (%) in Appalachia Sub-regions, 1981-1996.....................................................................91 Table 3.5 Annual Population Growth Rate (%) and Net County Migration Rate (%) in Appalachia by State, 1980-1989 and 1990-1996..................................................95 Table 3.6 Ten Counties with Most and Least Population Growth in Appalachia, 1990-1996........................................................................................................97 Table 3.7 Ten Counties with Highest and Lowest Population Growth Rate in Appalachia, 1990-1996.............................................................................................98 Table 3.8 Annual Population Growth Rate (%) across Distress Codes in Appalachia, 1981-1996 ...............................................................................................................103 Table 3.9 Annual Net Migration Rate (%) across Distress Codes in Appalachia, 1981-1996......................................................................................................104 Table 3.10 Proportion of Counties Growing and Experiencing Net In-Migration, 1980-1989 and 1990-1996 ......................................................................................106 Table 3.11 Proportion of Counties Growing and Experiencing Net In-Migration by Distress Codes, 1980-1989 and 1990-1996 ............................................................107 Table 3.12 Annual Population Growth Rate (%) across Beale Codes in Appalachia, 1981-1996 ...............................................................................................................111 Table 3.13 Annual Migration Rate (%) across Beale Codes in Appalachia, 1981-1996.......113 Table 3.14 Proportion of Counties Growing and Experiencing Net In-Migration by Beale Codes, 1980-89 and 1990-96................................................................ 116-117 Table 3.15 Five-year Age-Specific Net Migration Rates, 1985-1990...................................119 Table 3.16 Five-year Education-Specific Net Migration Rates, 1985-1990 .........................120 Table 3.17 Ten Counties with the Highest and Lowest Net Migration Rates for Young Adults Ages 25 to 39, 1985-1990 ...........................................................................123 Table 3.18 Ten Counties with the Highest and Lowest Net Migration Rates for Persons Ages 65 and over, 1985-1990 .................................................................................126 Table 3.19 Ten Counties with the Highest and Lowest Net Migration Rates for College- educated Persons, 1985-1990..................................................................................127 Table 3A.1 Fertility and Mortality Rates in Appalachia and the United States, 1996 ..........130 Table 3A.2 Fertility and Mortality Rates by Distress Codes, 1996.......................................130 Table 4.1 Educational Attainment in Appalachia and the United States, 1980 and 1990 .....136 Table 4.2 Educational Attainment by Gender, Race, and Age, 1990 ............................138, 139 Table 4.3 High School Drop-Out Rates by Race in Appalachian Sub-regions, 1990 ...........140 Table 4.4 Educational Attainment in Appalachian Sub-regions, 1980 and 1990..................141 Table 4.5 Ten Counties with Highest and Lowest Percent of Persons with Less Than a High School Education in Appalachia, 1990 .......................................................143 Table 4.6 Ten Counties with Highest and Lowest Percent of Persons with a College Education in Appalachia, 1990...............................................................................145 Table 4.7 Educational Attainment by Beale Codes, 1990 .....................................................146 Table 4.8 Educational Attainment by Distress Codes, 1990 .................................................147 Table 4.9 All Races - Household and Family Type by Presence of Children (%) for the Appalachian Region, 1980 and 1990 ................................................................149