2016 Real-world Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Analysis Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation September 2016 0 Acknowledgements We wish to thank the Energy Foundation for providing us with the financial support required for the execution of this report and subsequent research work. We would also like to express our sincere thanks for the valuable advice and recommendations provided by distinguished industry experts and colleagues. Authors Lanzhi Qin, Maya Ben Dror, Hongbo Sun, Liping Kang, Feng An Disclosure The report does not represent the views of its funders nor supporters. The Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation (iCET) Beijing Fortune Plaza Tower A Suite 27H No.7 DongSanHuan Middle Rd., Chaoyang District, Beijing 10020 Phone: 0086.10.6585.7324 Email: [email protected] Website: www.icet.org.cn 1 Glossary of Terms LDV Light Duty Vehicles; Vehicles of M1, M2 and N1 category not exceeding 3,500kg curb-weight. Category M1 Vehicles designed and constructed for the carriage of passengers comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat. Category M2 Vehicles designed and constructed for the carriage of passengers, comprising more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat, and having a maximum mass not exceeding 5 tons. Category N1 Vehicles designed and constructed for the carriage of goods and having a maximum mass not exceeding 3.5 tons Real-world FC FC values calculated based on BearOil App users’ data inputs. Certified FC Prior to sale in China (either domestic produced or imported cars), the vehicle is certified according to the “light duty vehicle FC testing method” standard (GB/T19233). The fuel consumption result combines, urban and rural fuel consumption tests. Entity vehicle Vehicle registered by companies and/or government. Effective figure While each of the models assessed in this study has an actual average FC based BearOil App users’ inputs (calculated as ), an average variance is used for deciding whether or not the average figure is robust enough to be used (calculated as ). In this study we only use data in the range M-2s2 <data<M+2s2. Private vehicle Vehicle registered for private use. Commercial vehicle Freight vehicles and vehicles with over 9 seats (including driver’s seat); see GB/T3730.1-2001 for more details. Passenger vehicles All vehicles with up to 9 seats (including drivers’ seat); see GB/T3730.1-2001 for more details. NEDC New European Driving Cycle MIIT Ministry of Industry and Information Technology IEA International Energy Agency 2 Table of Contents Glossary of Terms ............................................................................................................... 2 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 5 1. Background ...................................................................................................................... 9 2. Methodology ................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Certified and reported FC data .......................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Actual fuel consumption ....................................................................................................................... 13 2.3 Real-world and reported FC comparison ...................................................................................... 14 3. FC gaps analyses results and assessment ........................................................... 16 3.1 By-transmission type FC gap analyses results ............................................................................ 16 3.2 By-segment FC gap analyses results ................................................................................................ 18 3.3 By-province FC gap analyses results ............................................................................................... 20 3.4 By-model FC gaps .................................................................................................................................... 26 3.5 A typical actual FC range for a certified range ............................................................................. 27 3.6 Best selling passenger vehicles actual and certified FC gap .................................................. 33 3.7 Fuel saving technologies gaps ............................................................................................................ 34 4. National and provincial passenger vehicles emissions gap ......................... 36 4.1 FC gap from a national standard perspective .............................................................................. 36 4.2 FC gap from a national perspective .................................................................................................. 36 4.3 Case Study: Guangdong Province Passenger vehicles’ carbon emissions gap ............... 38 5. Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 41 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 43 Appendix ............................................................................................................................. 46 3 List of Figures Figure 1: China's type test driving conditions.............................................................................................. 11 Figure 2: FC reporting on MIIT website and FC label ............................................................................... 12 Figure 3: Snapshot of BearOil App’s FC data calculation method........................................................ 13 Figure 4: China's 2008-2015 actual vs. real-world FC .............................................................................. 17 Figure 5: The proportion of manual transmission cars between 2008-2015 ................................ 17 Figure 6: By-segment FC gap analyses results – combined .................................................................... 18 Figure 7: By-segment FC gap analyses results – detailed........................................................................ 19 Figure 8: Hover H6 (1.5L, MT) average FC over different cities by data-sample size ................. 21 Figure 9: Hover H6 (1.5L, MT) average FC over different cities ........................................................... 22 Figure 10: FC yearly changes of GreatWall Hover 6 in different cities – combined ..................... 22 Figure 11: FC yearly changes of GreatWall Hover 6 in different cities – detailed ......................... 23 Figure 12: Selected models' FC gap distribution ........................................................................................ 26 Figure 13: Comparative FC gap of Top 5 least and best performing models .................................. 27 Figure 14: Comparative FC gap of Top 27 brands ...................................................................................... 27 Figure 15: FC Gap for sample vehicles certified 5.9L/100km, 2008-2015 ...................................... 29 Figure 16: FC Gap for the sample vehicles certified 5.9L/100km ....................................................... 29 Figure 17: FC Gap for sample vehicles certified 6.9L/100km, 2008-2015 ...................................... 30 Figure 18: FC Gap for the sample vehicles certified 6.9L/100km ....................................................... 31 Figure 19: FC Gap for sample vehicles certified 7.9L/100km, 2008-2015 ...................................... 32 Figure 20: FC Gap for the sample vehicles certified 7.9L/100km ....................................................... 32 Figure 21: FC gap of the Top100 best-selling models in 2015 .............................................................. 33 Figure 22: FC gap of China's fastest growing models (by sales) ........................................................... 34 Figure 23: Technology impact of FC - Turbocharger 1.4 T on a 1.8L engine .................................. 35 Figure 24: Actual FC development versus Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) standard .............................................................................................................................................................. 36 List of Tables Table 1: China's FC type test divide .................................................................................................................. 12 Table 2: 2016 Actual FC Data .............................................................................................................................. 14 Table 3: China’s type approval cycle requirements – some ‘loose ends’ may increase real-world and certified FC gaps .............................................................................................................. 15 Table 4: By-segment FC gap development ..................................................................................................... 20 Table 5: China's CAFE Phase IV Standard; by-weight FC limits and targets for MY2016 .......... 28 Table 6: National average passenger vehicles’ carbon emission estimation .................................. 37 Table 7: Passenger vehicles’ carbon emissions gap estimation impacting factors....................... 38 Table 8: By-segment reported vehicles registration in