Sr Samuel Tan, Executive Director THE EDGE INVESTMENT FORUM I 25 March 2017 1 2 TRANSFUSION 3 7 Es that changed Johor Property Market 1. Emergence of Iskandar Malaysia Economic Corridor 2. Emergence of Foreign Developers 3. Emergence of China Buyers 4. Emergence of Service Apartments 5. Emergence of Increased Property Market Activities 6. Emergence of New Price Regime 7. Emergence of New Development Costs 4 IM BluePrint Development Costs Foreign Developers Changes China Buyers Price Regimes Market Activities Service Apartments 5 1. Iskandar Malaysia Economic Corridor • Focused Segments • Renewed Confidence • New Opportunities • Infrastructural Developments • Catalytic Projects • Increased Investments 6 2. CHINA DEVELOPERS • Development Speed, • Marketing Strategy, • Large Upfront Capex, Competition with • High Volume, • Landscape Quality & Size, local developers • Foreign Buyers, • Better Terms? THEY ARE HERE TO STAY; EMBRACE THIS CHANGE 7 No of GDV No Project Name Developer Units RM Year (Start) 1 Country Garden @ Danga Bay Country Garden Holding 9,500 10Bil 2013 2 Forest City Country Garden Holding 700,000 450Bil 2015 Damansara Realty Berhad & Country Garden 3 Central Park @ Tampoi Holdings Co Ltd 1,778 4.6Bil 2016 4 Greenland Jade Palace @ Danga Bay Greenland group 2,200 2.2Bil 2014 Greenland group & IWCB unit Southern Crest 5 Helios Cove @ Permas Jaya / Senibong Development Sdn Bhd 20,000 N.A. 2016 6 R&F Princess Cove @ Causeway R&F Properties Co. 30,000 24.5Bil 2014 Zhuoyuan Iskandar (Zhuoda Real Estate Group & 7 Paradiso Nuova @ Medini Iskandar Investment) 382 400M 2013 Sovereign Bay @ Permas Jaya / 8 Senibong UE E&C Sanjia (M) Sdn Bhd 948 2.9Bil 2015 The Marina View @ Permas Jaya / 9 Senibong Capital Extension Land Sdn Bhd (HK) 284 N.A. 2012 Source: Websites/KGV Research 8 3. CHINA BUYERS Implications • Spillover effects on local projects • Change market landscape • Benefit local business –F&B, Rental, Consultancy etc • “Ghost town” syndrome feared 9 4. SERVICE APARTMENTS PHENOMENA Existing Stock-37,222 2015 Future Supply-123,957 Existing Stock-41,498 Future Supply-127,771 377% 351% 2006 Existing Stock-20,512 Future Supply-22,217 Existing Stock-23,127 Johor Bahru Future Supply-25,049 Johor 10 Increase in transaction volume & value of Service Apartments in Johor & Johor Bahru in 2006 and 2015 2015 2,354 267% 2006 RM697.75m 435% 2,073 247% 642 Johor RM607.33m 384% RM130.53m 598 Johor Bahru RM125.55m 11 5. PROPERTY MARKET ACTIVITY - Saturation point - Investment Purpose changed - Buyers’ profile changed 12 Year Landed Highrise 2006 13,958 642 Q3/2016 13,645 1,576 Change (%) -2% 145% Source: NAPIC/KGV Research 13 Summary of Existing & Future Supply In Johor Existing Stock 2006 Q3/2016 Change (%) Landed 403,307 502,280 25% Highrise 23,127 41,498 79% Total Future Supply 2006 Q3/2016 Change (%) Landed 115,023 183,059 59% Highrise 25,049 127,771 410% Summary of Existing & Future Supply In Johor Bahru Existing Stock 2006 Q3/2016 Change (%) Landed 218,994 231,281 6% Highrise 20,512 37,222 81% Total Future Supply 2006 Q3/2016 Change (%) Landed 71,533.00 110,210.00 54% Highrise 22,217.00 123,957.00 458% 14 Source: NAPIC/KGV Research 6. NEW PRICE REGIME Property Type 2006 Q3/2016 Change (%) Landed 175,997 475,006 170% Highrise 209,950 307,361 46% Source: NAPIC/KGV Research 15 Property Tye 2006 Q3/2016 Change (%) Landed 156,808 380,475 143% Highrise 203,318 285,565 40% Source: NAPIC/KGV Research 16 Example of Price Change from 2006 to 2016 2-storey terrace house No Taman Land Size Year 2006 Year 2016 Changes(%) 1 Bandar Baru Permas Jaya 1,496 RM270,000 RM450,000 67% 2 Taman Bukit Tiram 1,540 RM150,000 RM300,000 100% 3 Taman Daya 1,540 RM260,000 RM400,000 54% 4 Taman Desa Cemerlang 1,485 RM230,000 RM390,000 70% 5 Taman Desa Tebrau 1,830 RM260,000 RM570,000 119% 6 Taman Mount Austin 1,399 RM180,000 RM380,000 111% 7 Taman Pelangi Indah 1,765 RM264,000 RM410,000 55% 8 Taman Sentosa 1,760 RM260,000 RM550,000 112% 9 Taman Suria 1,539 RM330,000 RM500,000 52% 10 Taman Bukit Indah 1,389 RM230,000 RM530,000 130% 11 Taman Mutiara Rini 1,539 RM230,000 RM500,000 117% 12 Taman Nusa Perintis 1,195 RM240,000 RM400,000 67% 13 Taman Perling 1,668 RM240,000 RM450,000 88% 14 Taman Tun Aminah 1,539 RM220,000 RM400,000 82% 15 Bandar Indahpura 1,539 RM180,000 RM380,000 111% Source: KGV Research 17 2-storey semi-detached house No Taman Land Size Year 2006 Year 2016 Change (%) 1 Taman Pelangi 3,595 RM363,000 RM1,000,000 175% 2 Taman Sri Tebrau 3,778 RM202,500 RM750,000 270% 3 Taman Tasek 3,778 RM420,000 RM850,000 102% 5 Taman Redang 3,681 RM710,000 RM1,500,000 111% 6 Taman Pelangi Indah 3,595 RM380,000 RM850,000 124% 7 Taman Mount Austin 3,606 RM500,000 RM1,200,000 140% 8 Taman Perling 3,003 RM420,000 RM750,000 79% 9 Bandar Putra 8,149 RM380,000 RM1,200,000 216% 11 Bandar Baru Uda 3,993 RM350,000 RM580,000 66% Source: KGV Research THESE ARE JUST THE REGULAR PROPERTY TYPES 18 7. NEW DEVELOPMENT COSTS LAND COST 19 TOO MUCH TOO SOON? 20 TRANSITION 21 TRANSITION 1. IM continues to grow with different emphasis; 2. Foreign developers will compete with local players; 3. Market Activity has slowed down and continue to; 4. Foreign buyers will continue with spillover effects; 5. No approval for new Service Apartments; 6. Price regime will be slightly adjusted to match market demand; 7. Bridging and End-Financing restrictive; 8. Niche developments like waterfront bungalows, villas doing well. 22 WHAT TO EXPECT THERE? 23 TRANSFORMATION 24 1. HPI to trend downwards Rates vs Surge Moderate Prices Completion of massive infra- work from 2 stimulus packages Congruence of global financial slowdown, mismatch, lowered confidence level, end- financing Source: KGV Research 25 Malaysia and Johor All House Price Index Pre-GST Uncertainty Lehman Bro Completion of infrastructural Growth rate moderated of IM Crisis projects Source: KGV Research • Price trend almost similar with national’s trend • More volatile in Johor but growth rate tapering down 26 2. Game-changers – HIGH SPEED RAIL (HSR) Melia Residences IMPACTS DIRECTLY ON ISKANDAR PUTERI AND BEYOND BY 2018 27 RAIL TRANSIT SYSTEM EFFECTS ON THE JB CITY CENTRE AND SURROUNDINGS 28 PENGERANG INTEGRATED PETROLEUM COMPLEX (PIPC) • Downstream benefits – Housing, Hotel, F&B, Consultancy and Construction Works • Land value appreciation • Job Creation 29 3. Job Creation – Services Sector – GBS, Education, Tourism, Medical etc • Create plenty business opportunities for local entrepreneurs and SMEs as well as job opportunities. • Since 2007, a total of 682,169 jobs have been created in Iskandar Malaysia, both in the nine promoted economic sectors, as well as other sectors such as property, construction and retail of which 15% of these are skilled jobs. • Johor has also enjoyed an increase in average household monthly income – from RM4,658 in 2012 to RM6,207 in 2014. - IRDA 31 Oct 2016 30 4. Medini and Iskandar Puteri Repositioning FUTURE CITY OF JOHOR BAHRU 31 Logistics Healthcare MSC Offices Multimedia Tourism Education 32 5. Creation of a Strong Outer JB market Kelapa Seelong Sawit Middle Ring Road Ulu Tiram Kong- Gelang Kong Patah Coastal Highway Southern Link (CHSL) New Bridge from Gelang Patah to Kukup 33 6. Leveling to be for the next 2 years – Why? • Lower transaction volume & value. • Challenging time for High-Rise. • High-Rise Priced Between RM450 psf to RM600 psf will still have support level. • Rental compressed. • More Affordable Landed will be developed ( RM250,000-RM600,000) • Niche Landed will still be in demand. • More foreclosures anticipated. 34 NEW RECALIBRATED NORMS • New Development Concepts and Marketing Strategies will emerged. • Focused will be on the targeted commercial sector. • Opportunities for New Buyers. Stay Invested. • “Back to Basics” Syndrome. • China Developers will be major players. 35 NOW WHAT? UNDERSTANDING PROPERTY CYCLE TO WIN !!! STAY INVESTED 36 TIME SERIES Next 10 years Kelapa Sawit/Sedenak Seelong Next 5 years Masai/Kong-Kong Next 3 years Kempas JB City Plentong North Gelang Patah Permas Jaya Iskandar Puteri Pasir Gudang Gerbang Nusajaya Pontian/Tg Bin Forest City Source: KGV Research 37 a. Iskandar Malaysia - The World Best Township - Iskandar Puteri - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1LwpSHGQNs&t=33s b. Forest City Iskandar Malaysia - A Prime Model City Of The Future - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_k5_fJ-t27o c. Johor Bahru City Iskandar Malaysia - January 2017 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vj9fBZ5NpW4 d. Progress of Top 10 Shopping Malls in Johor Bahru - January 2017 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsqDV5_9lQs e. Progress of Pengerang RAPID. 25 December 2016 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi7ss4xmyAw f. Future Medini Iskandar Malaysia - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlKPFbUVcBQ g. Coastal Highway Southern Link - Iskandar Malaysia - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6xLkxFToRM 38 OPERATION IS SUCCESSFUL; RECOVERY TIME NOW 39 NORMAL AGAIN, THANK YOU 40.