Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Future Strategic Strike Forces February 2004 Office of the Under Secretary of Defense For Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Washington, D.C. 20301-3140 This report is a product of the Defense Science Board (DSB). The DSB is a Federal Advisory Committee established to provide independent ad- vice to the Secretary of Defense. Statements, opinions, conclusions, and recom- mendations in this report do not necessarily represent the official position of the Department of Defense. This report is unclassified. i ii iii iv Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Overview.................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 The Future Environment: The Spectrum of Contingencies in 2030 .......... 1-3 1.3 Targets for Strategic Strike........................................................................ 1-4 1.4 Effectiveness of Currently Planned Capability.......................................... 1-4 1.5 Recommendations: Command and Control Networks .............................. 1-5 1.6 Recommendations: Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance and Battle Damage Assessment................................................................. 1-7 1.7 Recommendations: Delivery Systems ....................................................... 1-8 1.8 Recommendations: Payloads ..................................................................... 1-9 1.9 Conclusion: Potential U.S. Strategic Strike Capability ........................... 1-11 2. CONCEPTS OF OPERATION ............................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Defining Strategic Strike ........................................................................... 2-1 2.2 The Future Agenda .................................................................................... 2-2 2.3 The Future Security Environment.............................................................. 2-7 2.4 Notional Contingencies..............................................................................2-9 2.5 Targeting Requirements........................................................................... 2-14 2.6 Shortfalls.................................................................................................. 2-16 3. C3ISR ELEMENTS ............................................................................................. 3-1 3.1 Introduction................................................................................................ 3-1 3.2 Intelligence ................................................................................................ 3-2 3.3 Surveillance and Reconnaissance .............................................................. 3-4 3.4 Future Tiered ISR Systems........................................................................ 3-8 3.5 Communications...................................................................................... 3-11 3.6 Command and Control............................................................................. 3-13 3.7 Other Features of C3ISR for Future Strategic Strike............................... 3-16 Summary: C3ISR Elements...................................................................... 3-19 4. C3ISR DEVELOPMENT...................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 C3ISR Development Plan.......................................................................... 4-1 4.2 The Importance of C3ISR Development ................................................... 4-8 Summary: C3ISR Development ............................................................... 4-11 5. DELIVERY SYSTEMS ......................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Current Air Force ICBMs.......................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Current Air Force Cruise Missiles............................................................. 5-3 5.3 Current Air Force Bombers ....................................................................... 5-4 5.4 Current Navy Systems ............................................................................... 5-5 5.5 Capabilities and Shortcomings .................................................................. 5-8 5.6 Potential Approaches............................................................................... 5-10 5.7 Recommendations.................................................................................... 5-13 Summary: Delivery Systems..................................................................... 5-16 6. PAYLOADS ..........................................................................................................6-1 6.1 The Way Ahead..........................................................................................6-1 6.2 Shortfalls ....................................................................................................6-2 6.3 Non-Nuclear Payloads ...............................................................................6-3 6.4 Nuclear Payloads......................................................................................6-10 Summary: Payloads .................................................................................6-16 7. FUTURE SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGIES .........................................................7-1 7.1 Introduction................................................................................................7-1 7.2 Summary of Findings.................................................................................7-1 7.3 Conclusions..............................................................................................7-16 Summary: Future Systems and Technologies...........................................7-20 8. CAPABILITIES ASSESSMENT.............................................................................8-1 8.1 Introduction................................................................................................8-1 8.2 Dimensionality ...........................................................................................8-2 8.3 Individual Functional Assessments............................................................8-4 8.4 Aggregation of Individual Assessments.....................................................8-7 8.5 Mapping Capabilities Against Adversary Value Models...........................8-9 A. TERMS OF REFERENCE ..................................................................................... A-1 B. TASK FORCE MEMBERS AND ADVISORS ....................................................... B-1 C. SUPPORTING DATA FOR CAPABILITIES ASSESSMENT ................................. C-1 D. ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................ D-1 1. Executive Summary Here we outline our objectives and review the context of our analysis. We also sum- marize our key recommendations. 1.1 OVERVIEW 1.1.1 Objective The Defense Science Board Summer Study Task Force on Future Strategic Strike Forces looks to the 30-year future with the objective of providing the President with a broad range of strike options to • Protect the United States and our forces abroad, • Assure friends and allies of our future commitment, and • Deal with future adversaries on terms favorable to the United States. The Task Force identified currently planned systems that will still be relevant and rec- ommended new systems for development. 1.1.2 Approach Figure 1-1 illustrates the Task Force’s approach. We began by characterizing the stra- tegic environment, moved next to assessing the role of strategic strike, and then identi- fied shortfalls in current plans. We then analyzed these shortfalls and recommended appropriate solutions. These solutions—and the accompanying analysis—appear in chapters 2 through 6 of this report. Throughout the study process, we also assessed future systems and technolo- gies. The results of this assessment helped shape and guide the proposed solutions mentioned above. The conclusions of the future systems and technologies assessment appear in chapter 7 of this report (a supplemental appendix—to be published sepa- rately—will provide additional detail). Chapter 8 and appendix C summarize the im- pact of this assessment. 1-1 Strategic Environment Role of Strategic Strike Shortfalls of Current Plans I SR B / DA C 3 De S liv yst er em y s P ay R lo eco ad m m en da Future Systems & tio Technologies ns Figure 1-1: The Task Force’s approach. 1.1.3 Definition For the purposes of the Task Force, a strategic strike is “a military operation to deci- sively alter an adversary’s basic course of action within a relatively compact period of time.” A strategic strike can be either (1) an isolated event such as the Eldorado Can- yon attack on Libya, or (2) part of a military campaign such as the Vietnam War’s Linebacker II strikes or the attack on Saddam Hussein himself at the outset of Opera- tion Iraqi Freedom. 1.1.4 Policies The series of policy studies on strategic issues conducted by the current administration provides a basis for an orderly transformation of strategic capabilities and supporting forces. From the National Security Strategy, the Quadrennial Defense Review, the Nuclear Posture Review, and the Defense Planning Guidance the Task Force drew three key principles: 1. Tailor capabilities for broad goals: assure, dissuade,