Issue 5/2020 May 2020 Latest trends Index for prices Groundfish 9 The COVID-19 outbreak and the government measures Flatfish 10 introduced to reduce contagion risk are still overshadowing the Tuna 11 European seafood market. Most importers have stopped purchasing as most countries remain in varying states of Small Pelagics 11 lockdown. However, there are some signs of improvement in Cephalopods 12 the general situation, with restaurants reopening in several Crustaceans 13 European countries. In the meantime, the industry is adapting Bivalves 15 to the shifting market conditions by offering new ranges of Salmon 15 seafood retail products targeted at home-bound consumers. Trout 16 In response to the COVID-19 crisis, some countries have taken Freshwater fish 16 a more nationally focused approach to marketing, promoting Non Traditional fish sourced domestically over imports from other EU countries. Species 16 Sales of canned fish were exceptionally good in April but activity Seabass-Seabream- has slowed since, with canned tuna producers reporting normal Meagre 17 sales in May. Frozen tuna prices have fallen sharply over recent The European Fish Price Report, weeks, as plants are working at lower capacity due to COVID- based on information supplied by industry correspondents, aims to 19, but higher productivity has been reported in Ecuador. provide guidance on broad price trends. Price information is indicative and should be used only for forecasting GROUNDFISH medium- and long-term trends. FAO is not responsible for any errors or omissions. In the Russian Federation, observers are expecting a gradual decline in the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) for Alaska pollock by 5 percent per year until 2025. Russian landings of Alaska pollock may be reduced by as much as 300 000 tonnes by 2025, to 1 455 000 tonnes. The quota for 2020 is 1 764 000 tonnes. 1 The fresh groundfish market has been heavily Sole - origin: Netherlands impacted by the COVID-19 lockdown. Prices for large Dutch sole, which are normally around EUR/kg EUR 16.00 per kg at this time of the year, have 25.0 12.56 collapsed to EUR 13.00 per kg. This price 20.0 decline is expected to continue. 15.0 10.0 5.0 The outlook for the groundfish market in 9.29 0.0 Europe for the rest of 2020 is extremely uncertain. While China was able to return to near-normal conditions after just a few months, gutted no 4 gutted no 2 the same cannot be expected in the European Union. For the rest of 2020, demand is expected to continue to shift from the restaurant and foodservice sector to the retail and home-delivery sector, with an emphasis on frozen products. Prices are likely to decline a little, and trade may be more restricted than previously expected. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding cod price development, but the general consensus seems to be that they will stay high or go higher, both because of the slightly tighter supply situation and because of market demand. The market situation is still poor for wet-salted cod fillets from frozen raw material (Gadus macrocephalus), and wet-salted cod fillets (Gadus morhua) from fresh raw material of Faroese and Icelandic origin. The HORECA (hotel, restaurant & catering) sector, an important outlet for wet salted cod, is completely locked down and distributors have plenty of fish in stock. In Italy, restaurants and bars will open again on Monday 18 May, while in Spain the reopening is set to take place some weeks later. TUNA - BILLFISHES The poor fishing situation for tuna is persisting in the Western and Central Pacific (WCP) and carrier arrivals in Thailand remain low. Despite this, Thai canneries are still reporting sufficient raw material inventories and while COVID-19 is still affecting transhipment operations in the WCP, the situation is much better compared with last month. TUNA - Pacific Ocean Several ports have relaxed their rules and are USD/kg allowing transhipment to take place. Finished 3.0 goods orders for retail sizes have stabilised as 2.5 panic buying has subsided while orders for 2.0 1.30 food service sizes remain limited. Skipjack 1.5 1.10 prices have fallen, driven to a large extent by 1.0 historically low fuel prices which have 0.5 translated into reduced costs for tuna fishers. Skipjack Bangkok CFR Skipjack Ecuador, ex-vessel 2 Catches in the Indian Ocean have been moderate and raw material inventories at local canneries are healthy. As local canneries are still working at reduced capacity, there has been an increase in transhipment activities with fish being diverted to other markets. Skipjack and yellowfin prices have fallen. TUNA - Indian/Atlantic Oceans Fishing in the Eastern Pacific remains good and raw material inventories at local canneries are EUR/kg healthy. Canneries are reported to have 3.0 2.5 increased their working capacity to 60-70%. 2.10 2.0 As the raw material supply remains high, 2.05 1.5 1.05 skipjack and yellowfin prices have moved 1.0 lower. 0.5 1.02 Skipjack, Seychelles, FOB Yellowfin, Seychelles, FOB Skipjack, Abidjan ex-vessel Yellowfin, Abidjan, > 10 kg, ex-vessel Catches in the Atlantic Ocean have slowed to moderate-to-low, mainly due to strong currents. As a result, raw material inventories at local canneries remain moderate-to-low. However, skipjack and yellowfin prices have decreased, in line with price trends in other markets. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Thai Union has had to close its Ghanaian plant. In Europe, prices for skipjack and yellowfin have fallen while prices for cooked, single cleaned skipjack loins have remained stable. TUNA - Spanish canneries TUNA - Loins EUR/kg USD/Kg 2.10 3.0 9.5 2.5 8.0 2.0 6.5 6.85 1.5 5.0 4.60 3.5 1.0 1.05 2.0 0.5 Skipjack - frozen cooked loins, single cleaned, Spain/Italy DDP Yellowfin > 10 kg, Spain CFR Skipjack main sizes, Spain CFR Yellowfin - frozen cooked loins, double cleaned, Italy DDP 3 SMALL PELAGICS Polish herring catches have reportedly been good, but strong demand is driving prices upwards. While herring consumption is still stable in Poland, the market is slowing in Germany, especially amongst the younger generations. Sprat prices in Poland have also increased, and they are now approaching herring prices for the first time ever. Herring - in Poland fresh Sprat - in Poland fresh USD/kg USD/kg 0.7 0.35 0.6 0.30 0.5 0.25 0.4 0.20 0.3 0.15 0.2 0.10 0.1 0.05 0.0 0.00 fresh fresh CEPHALOPODS The South African squid fishery re-opens on 1 July. Stocks are essentially nil, meaning price quotes are not available but it seems that the market remains strong. The rand has weakened against the euro, increasing revenue as measured in the local currency. Currently, the supply of octopus raw material from Indonesia is limited as it is low season, and prices should be high. However, due to the COVID-19 situation, demand is reportedly very poor, especially from the Spanish restaurant sector, and prices are reportedly falling. SQUID - in Italy, origin: South Africa EUR/kg 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 8.60 5.0 4.0 3.0 Squid - Whole, FAS, size M 4 CRUSTACEANS Following panic-driven harvesting at the end of March, most Indonesian shrimp farmers have postponed stocking shrimp fry in their ponds, and prices are rising as a result. Demand is generally weak in Europe but supermarket sales have been increasing. Demand for Argentine shrimp remains lacklustre, as fishing gets underway in the North. Most of the shrimp being caught are large, in the 10/20 category. These sizes are normally directed to the restaurant sector, which is locked down in many markets due to COVID-19. On the other hand, supply is limited for the 20/30 category and for 30/40 it is non-existent. As a result of imbalanced supply situation, prices have levelled off and are now approximately the same for all sizes. In some cases, larger shrimp are being sold at even lower prices than the smaller sizes, something that has not occurred before. There are some timid signs of market recovery, with sales picking up in May compared with April, and this trend is expected to continue into June. Crab prices had already dropped due to decreased exports to China following COVID-19 restrictions, and the closure of the foodservice sector in Europe together with declining sales of festive products is compounding the situation. Improvement is unlikely in the near future, even with the restart of the Chinese market. Lobster, which is heavily dependent on the restaurant trade, has been even more severely impacted as demand has decreased to almost nil. Even when restaurants reopen, it will likely take some time for demand to return to anywhere near previous levels, while the wider economic problems will make consumers shy away from luxury products. ARGENTINA RED SHRIMP - origin: CRAB - in France, origin: Europe Argentina EUR/kg EUR/kg 6.0 10.5 3.43 9.0 5.0 6.30 7.5 4.0 6.0 6.30 3.0 4.5 6.30 2.0 3.0 1.0 > 10-20 pc/kg > 30-40 > 40-60 400-600 - 600-800 kg/pc 5 FRESHWATER FISH Domestic freshwater fish producers in the European Union have been heavily impacted by COVID-19 as a high proportion of sales are in touristic restaurants close to production areas. The possibility of selling to the retail sector is Pangasius - in dethawedItaly, origin: fillets Viet Nam essentially nil, as competition from imported freshwater fish is heavy and consumers are not USD/kg 5.0 willing to pay the premium prices that 4.8 4.5 restaurants were able to offer.