October 2016 Oregon Public Broadcasting October Statewide Survey Crosstabs Prepared by DHM Research 503.220.0575 239 NW 13th Ave #205 Portland, OR 97209 www.dhmresearch.com 1 Oregon Public Broadcasting October Statewide Survey October 6-13, 2016; N=600 How to Read Crosstables: In the example chart (left), rows represent the three possible response options to the question “All in all, do you think things are headed in the right direction, or are things pretty much on the wrong track?” The three response options are: “right direction,” “wrong track,” and “don’t know.” The amounts in each response category sum to the amount in the “total” row at the top of the table. The first column, or banner, is the “Total” column. It reflects the overall results. The next two columns reflect the results of a subgroup, “Gender.” The gender subgroup is composed of Males and Females, each with their own column. Both gender groups are assigned a letter (Male=B, Female=C). These two columns show how male’s attitudes compare to female’s attitudes. As shown in the chart, 69% of the full sample thinks things are headed in the right direction. Looking at the gender subgroup, 71% of women think things are headed in the right direction, compared to 66% of males. Statistically Significant Differences: If a pair of cells has a difference which is statistically significant, the larger of the two cells is flagged with the letter of the opposite column. The test shows the difference in female’s attitudes about things being headed in the right direction is statistically significantly different than those of male’s, which is signified by a “B” (the letter given to Males) next to female’s results for “right direction.” The footnote indicates the level of significance (sig=.05). This level of significance means that 5% of the time, the difference between how the two groups feel about the direction is d ue to random chance, while 95% of the time the difference is meaningful. Statement of Limitations: Any sampling of opinions or attitudes is subject to a margin of error, which represents the difference between a sample of a given population and the total population. The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results and differs by sample size, as reflected in the table below. Margin of Error Based on Sample Size N=1200 N=1000 N=800 N=600 N=500 N=400 N=300 N=200 N=150 N=100 N=50 +/- 2.8% +/- 3.1% +/- 3.5% +/- 4.0% +/- 4.4% +/- 4.9% +/- 5.7% +/- 6.9% +/- 8.0% +/- 9.8% +/- 13.8% 2 DHM Panel Survey - OPB 2016 Election Survey - October 6-13, 2016 S1. How likely are you to vote in upcoming election? Area Education ------------------- Gender Party Vote History ----------------- Willa- Rest --------- Age ----------------- ----------------------- H.S. Tri- mette Of Male Fe- ----------------------- Ind/ 0-1 2 3 4 Grad Some Coll Total County Valley State male 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep Other Of 4 Of 4 Of 4 Of 4 Or < Coll Grad+ ----- ------ ------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Total 600 266 162 172 294 306 64 134 221 181 235 193 172 137 114 124 225 109 193 291 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) Absolutely certain 490 216 132 142 244 246 44 110G 190G 146G 196 162 132 102 88 111NO 189N 78 161R 244R 82% 81% 81% 83% 83% 80% 69% 82% 86% 81% 83% 84% 77% 74% 77% 90% 84% 72% 83% 84% Very likely 88 38 22 28 42 46 12 18 28 30 32 28 28 24 20 12 32 22 25 41 15% 14% 14% 16% 14% 15% 19% 13% 13% 17% 14% 15% 16% 18% 18% 10% 14% 20% 13% 14% Fifty-fifty 22 12 8D 2 8 14 8HIJ 6 3 5 7 3 12L 11PQ 6P 1 4 9T 7 6 4% 5% 5% 1% 3% 5% 13% 4% 1% 3% 3% 2% 7% 8% 5% 1% 2% 8% 4% 2% --------------------------------- (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOPQ, RST 3 DHM Panel Survey - OPB 2016 Election Survey - October 6-13, 2016 S1. How likely are you to vote in upcoming election? Marital Status Survey Date Income ----------------------- Vote Certainty ----------- Phone ------------------------------------ Ethnicity Never Union ------------------ Pre: Post: ----------- $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K ----------- Marr- Div/ Wid- Marr- ----------- Cer- Very Oct Oct Cell Land- Total <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > White Other ied Sep owed ied Yes No tain Likely 50 -50 6-9 10-13 Phone line ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Total 600 83 121 115 90 55 44 472 98 112 94 61 311 102 477 490 88 22 267 333 299 301 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) Absolutely certain 490 67 96 96 81C 45 38 395I 70 87 80 51 256 89 386 490QR - - 225 265 249 241 82% 81% 79% 83% 90% 82% 86% 84% 71% 78% 85% 84% 82% 87% 81% 100% 84% 80% 83% 80% Very likely 88 12 19 16 7 9 6 66 19 17 12 7 49 13 72 - 88PR - 34 54 41 47 15% 14% 16% 14% 8% 16% 14% 14% 19% 15% 13% 11% 16% 13% 15% 100% 13% 16% 14% 16% Fifty-fifty 22 4 6 3 2 1 - 11 9H 8M 2 3 6 - 19N - - 22PQ 8 14 9 13 4% 5% 5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 9% 7% 2% 5% 2% 4% 100% 3% 4% 3% 4% --------------------------------- (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCDEFG, HI, JKLM, NO, PQR, ST 4 DHM Panel Survey - OPB 2016 Election Survey - October 6-13, 2016 S1. How likely are you to vote in upcoming election? Q1: Direction Presidential Support ----------- ----------------------------- Governor Support Right Wrong Clin- John- ------------------------ Total Dir Track Trump ton son Stein Und Pierce Brown Other Und ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- Total 600 240 264 216 255 39 28 32 200 278 47 69 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) Absolutely certain 490 200 218 174 219GH 33 20 22 167L 233L 38 48 82% 83% 83% 81% 86% 85% 71% 69% 84% 84% 81% 70% Very likely 88 31 38 39E 29 3 6 7 30 35 8 14 15% 13% 14% 18% 11% 8% 21% 22% 15% 13% 17% 20% Fifty-fifty 22 9 8 3 7 3D 2D 3D 3 10 1 7IJ 4% 4% 3% 1% 3% 8% 7% 9% 2% 4% 2% 10% --------------------------------- (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BC, DEFGH, IJKL 5 DHM Panel Survey - OPB 2016 Election Survey - October 6-13, 2016 Q1. All things considered, do you think Oregon is headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track? Area Education ------------------- Gender Party Vote History ----------------- Willa- Rest --------- Age ----------------- ----------------------- H.S. Tri- mette Of Male Fe- ----------------------- Ind/ 0-1 2 3 4 Grad Some Coll Total County Valley State male 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Dem Rep Other Of 4 Of 4 Of 4 Of 4 Or < Coll Grad+ ----- ------ ------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Total 600 266 162 172 294 306 64 134 221 181 235 193 172 137 114 124 225 109 193 291 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) Right direction 240 129D 64D 47 113 127 31 55 86 68 147LM 29 64L 61O 34 46 99O 38 61 140RS 40% 48% 40% 27% 38% 42% 48% 41% 39% 38% 63% 15% 37% 45% 30% 37% 44% 35% 32% 4 8% Wrong track 264 89 76B 99B 135 129 19 60G 108G 77 49 143KM 72K 46 56N 61N 101N 53T 96T 110 44% 33% 47% 58% 46% 42% 30% 45% 49% 43% 21% 74% 42% 34% 49% 49% 45% 49% 50% 38% Don't know 96 48 22 26 46 50 14 19 27 36I 39 21 36L 30Q 24Q 17 25 18 36 41 16% 18% 14% 15% 16% 16% 22% 14% 12% 20% 17% 11% 21% 22% 21% 14% 11% 17% 19% 14% --------------------------------- (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOPQ, RST 6 DHM Panel Survey - OPB 2016 Election Survey - October 6-13, 2016 Q1. All things considered, do you think Oregon is headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track? Marital Status Survey Date Income ----------------------- Vote Certainty ----------- Phone ------------------------------------ Ethnicity Never Union ------------------ Pre: Post: ----------- $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K ----------- Marr- Div/ Wid- Marr- ----------- Cer- Very Oct Oct Cell Land- Total <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > White Other ied Sep owed ied Yes No tain Likely 50 -50 6-9 10-13 Phone line ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Total 600 83 121 115 90 55 44 472 98 112 94 61 311 102 477 490 88 22 267 333 299 301 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) Right direction 240 31 51 48 36 20 26BE 189 41 52 36 26 119 39 193 200 31 9 109 131 123 117 40% 37% 42% 42% 40% 36% 59%F 40% 42% 46% 38% 43% 38% 38% 40% 41% 35% 41% 41% 39% 41% 39% Wrong track 264 40 52 48 43 26 15 212 39 35 44J 20 154JL 47 208 218 38 8 118 146 126 138 44% 48% 43% 42% 48% 47% 34% 45% 40% 31% 47% 33% 50% 46% 44% 44% 43% 36% 44% 44% 42% 46% Don't know 96 12 18 19 11 9 3 71 18 25M 14 15M 38 16 76 72 19 5 40 56 50 46 16% 14% 15% 17% 12% 16% 7% 15% 18% 22% 15% 25% 12% 16% 16% 15% 22% 23% 15% 17% 17% 15% --------------------------------- (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCDEFG, HI, JKLM, NO, PQR, ST 7 DHM Panel Survey - OPB 2016 Election Survey - October 6-13, 2016 Q1.