2004 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts About the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee The Federal Aviation Administration’s in 1985, COMSTAC is made up of senior Associate Administrator for Commercial executives from the U.S. commercial space Space Transportation (FAA/AST) licenses transportation and satellite industries, and regulates U.S. commercial space space-related state government officials, launch activity as authorized by Executive and other space professionals. Order 12465 (Commercial Expendable Launch Vehicle Activities) and 49 United The primary goals of COMSTAC are to: States Code Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (for- merly the Commercial Space Launch Act). Evaluate economic, technological and AST’s mission is to license and regulate institutional issues relating to the U.S. commercial launch operations to ensure commercial space transportation public health and safety and the safety of industry; property, and to protect national security and foreign policy interests of the United Provide a forum for the discussion of States. The Commercial Space Launch Act issues involving the relationship between of 1984 and the 1996 National Space Policy also direct the Federal Aviation industry and government requirements; Administration to encourage, facilitate, and and promote commercial launches. Make recommendations to the The Commercial Space Transportation Administrator on issues and approaches Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) pro- for Federal policies and programs vides information, advice, and recommen- regarding the industry. dations to the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration within the Additional information concerning AST Department of Transportation (DOT) on and COMSTAC can be found on AST’s matters relating to the U.S. commercial web site, http://ast.faa.gov. space transportation industry. Established Cover: Art by Phil Smith (2004) i ii Federal Aviation Administration and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) 2004 NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts Table of Contents Executive Summary . .1 Introduction . .3 Growth of Commercial Space Transportation . .3 About the COMSTAC 2004 Commercial Geosynchronous Launch Demand Model . .3 About the FAA NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast . .3 2004 Combined Satellite and Launch Forecasts . .4 COMSTAC 2004 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Model . .7 Executive Summary . .7 Introduction . .9 Background . .9 Methodology . .10 COMSTAC Demand Projection vs. Actual Launches Realized . .12 Factors That Affect Launch Realization . .12 2003 Space Industry Performance on Launch Demand . .12 Projecting Actual Launches . .12 2004 Satellite Launch Demand Model . .15 Satellite Launch Mass Classes . .16 Commercial GSO Satellite Trends . .17 Industry Metrics . .17 Future Trends . .18 Comparison with Previous COMSTAC Demand Forecasts . .19 Launch Vehicle Demand . .21 Launch Assurance Agreements . .22 Factors That May Affect Future Demand . .22 Summary . .23 Appendix A. Use of the COMSTAC GSO Launch Demand Model . .25 Demand Model Defined . .25 Appendix B. Supplemental Questionnaire . .26 Appendix C. Letter from the Associate Administrator . .28 COMSTAC Launch Demand Model Report Feedback Form . .30 Appendix D. Historical Launches . .31 2004 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits . .35 Executive Summary . .35 Introduction . .36 NGSO Satellite Systems . .38 International Science and Other Payloads . .38 Digital Audio Radio Services . .39 Market Demand Scenarios . .39 Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites . .39 DigitalGlobe . .40 ImageSat International . .40 InfoTerra GmbH . .42 Northrop Grumman . .42 ORBIMAGE . .42 Radarsat International . .43 RapidEye AG . .43 Space Imaging . .43 iii TransOrbital . .44 Market Demand Scenarios . .44 “Little LEO” Telecommunications Systems . .44 Recent Developments . .44 Market Demand Scenarios . .45 “Big LEO” and Mobile Satellite Services . .46 Globalstar . .46 ICO . .47 Iridium . .47 Market Demand Scenarios . .48 “Broadband LEO” Systems . .48 Future Markets . .48 Risk Factors That Affect Satellite and Launch Demand . .49 Methodology . .51 Vehicle Sizes and Orbits . .52 Satellite and Launch Forecast . ..