A40 St Clears to Haverfordwest Economic Activity & Location Impacts (EALI) Study Final Report On behalf of Welsh Government Project Ref: 33459 | Rev: SC | Date: June 2015 Office Address: Exchange Place 3, 3 Semple Street. Edinburgh, EH3 8BL T: +44 (0)131 297 7010 E: [email protected] Final Report A40 St Clears to Haverfordwest Economic Activity & Location Impacts (EALI) Study Document Control Sheet Project Name: A40 St Clears to Haverfordwest Economic Activity & Location Impacts (EALI) Study Project Ref: 33459 Report Title: Final Report Date: 6th June 2015 Name Position Signature Date Stephen Principal Transport Prepared by: SC 09/05/2015 Canning Planner Reviewed by: Dr Scott Leitham Senior Associate SL 11/05/2015 Approved by: Dr Scott Leitham Senior Associate SL 11/05/2015 For and on behalf of Peter Brett Associates LLP Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved WG Minor amendments to take Stephen Dr Scott Dr Scott 05/06/2015 Comments account of WG comments Canning Leitham Leitham Peter Brett Associates LLP disclaims any responsibility to the Client and others in respect of any matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the Contract with the Client and generally in accordance with the appropriate ACE Agreement and taking account of the manpower, resources, investigations and testing devoted to it by agreement with the Client. This report is confidential to the Client and Peter Brett Associates LLP accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2015 Final Report A40 St Clears to Haverfordwest Economic Activity & Location Impacts (EALI) Study Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... i 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 The Story So Far ........................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Economic Activity & Location Impacts........................................................................... 4 2 The A40 Corridor – St Clears to Haverfordwest ....................................................................... 5 2.1 The A40 ......................................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Journey Times ............................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Traffic on the A40 .......................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Accessibility & Connectivity ......................................................................................... 10 2.5 Port and Ferry Connectivity ......................................................................................... 13 3 Socio-Economic Baseline ........................................................................................................ 16 3.1 Data Geography .......................................................................................................... 16 3.2 Demographics & Socio-Economic Data ...................................................................... 16 3.3 Economic Performance ............................................................................................... 41 3.4 Property ....................................................................................................................... 49 3.5 Inward Investment ....................................................................................................... 51 3.6 Tourism ........................................................................................................................ 52 3.7 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 55 4 Consultation .............................................................................................................................. 57 4.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 57 4.2 The Consultation Process ........................................................................................... 57 4.3 The Pembrokeshire Economy ..................................................................................... 58 4.4 Key Economic Sectors ................................................................................................ 61 4.5 Transport Infrastructure Problems & Opportunities ..................................................... 69 4.6 Other Infrastructure Issues .......................................................................................... 74 5 Business Survey ....................................................................................................................... 77 5.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 77 5.2 The Business Survey................................................................................................... 77 5.3 About Your Business ................................................................................................... 77 5.4 Your Employees .......................................................................................................... 81 5.5 Markets Served and Suppliers .................................................................................... 82 5.6 Staff Travel in the Course of Work .............................................................................. 83 5.7 Movement of Goods .................................................................................................... 85 5.8 Recent Business Conditions ....................................................................................... 87 5.9 Your Business’s Use of the A40 .................................................................................. 90 5.10 How might your business be impacted? ..................................................................... 92 5.11 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 95 6 Transmission Mechanisms ...................................................................................................... 96 6.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 96 6.2 Recapping the Problem ............................................................................................... 96 6.3 Geographic Distribution of Benefits ............................................................................. 97 6.4 Transmission Mechanisms .......................................................................................... 99 6.5 Strength of Transmission Mechanisms ..................................................................... 101 6.6 Risks .......................................................................................................................... 103 7 Economic Activity & Location Impacts ................................................................................. 104 7.1 Why carry out an EALI? ............................................................................................ 104 7.2 EALI Assessment Tables .......................................................................................... 105 8 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 118 8.1 Overview .................................................................................................................... 118 8.2 The Pembrokeshire Economy ................................................................................... 118 8.3 Transport Connectivity .............................................................................................. 118 8.4 A40 Dualling - Economic Activity & Location Impacts ............................................... 119 8.5 Wider Infrastructure ................................................................................................... 120 Final Report A40 St Clears to Haverfordwest Economic Activity & Location Impacts (EALI) Study Figures Figure 2.1: Study Area ............................................................................................................................. 5 Figure 2.2: AADT counts along the A40 and surrounding routes (2013) ................................................ 7 Figure 2.3: AADT on A40 – 10 year trends ............................................................................................. 9 Figure 2.4: 2004 indexed trends in traffic – A40, A55 and nationally (2004=100) ................................ 10 Figure 2.5: Car-Based Drive Times from Haverfordwest ...................................................................... 11 Figure 2.6: Trends in ferry passenger numbers ...................................................................................