Trends and Predictions For more information, contact Brian Darr at: 312-655-0594 or [email protected] While this is foodservice data, the insights go further than that… of consumers say their food preferences are shaped 65% primarily by RESTAURANT experiences MenuTrends are a leading indicator of what will happen in the grocery aisle and perimeter MenuTrends generally follow four phases certain segments typically join in at different stages of the trend Inception Adoption Proliferation Ubiquity .Fine Dining .Casual dining .Casual Dining & .Firmly established independents and QSR chains across all .Ethnic fast-casual segments independents .Well-accepted .Quick to react trends .Midscale dining .Differentiating typically last applications .Risk takers .Mass audience validation .Trends may be watered down The “Science” Aspect four classic examples of MAC stages Item QSR Midscale Casual Fine Dining TOTAL STAGE YUZU 0% 1% 1% 10% 1% INCEPTION REMOULADE 1% 3% 9% 20% 6% ADOPTION GORGONZOLA 6% 10% 18% 30% 13% PROLIFERATION CHIPOTLE 12% 12% 28% 20% 19% UBIQUITY Variances in penetration across the major segments indicate not only the trend’s stage, but also its likelihood for continued growth. Chinese Menu Adoption Cycle: Ethnic Influences Italian Mexican Regional Italian Thai Regional Mexican Japanese Southern Indian Spanish / Tapas Mediterranean Cuban Peruvian Caribbean North African Brazilian Steakhouse Vietnamese Korean Inception Adoption Proliferation Ubiquity . 6,500 distinct US restaurants 2,500 chains MenuTrends 4,000 independents . plus 500 food trucks We’ve spotlighted over 200 culinary trends during the past 8 years. And there’s one thing that’s crystal clear… Trends often take years to mature. Let’s take a look at a few we’ve tracked over the past decade. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 . tapas . brining . mini-desserts . pomegranate . lemongrass . savory chocolate . vanilla accents . figs . spanish cheeses . fennel . plank cooking . braising . applewood smoked bacon . gratin . chutney . root vegetables . papayas & mangos . molten chocolate cake . bruschetta . wasabi . flavored mayo 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 . local, organic & all-natural . wild mushrooms . amuse bouche . new citrus . las vegas . chocolate café . flavored salts . lavender . cream puffs . indian fusion . harissa . pork belly . organic foods . churrascaria . sous vide . retro desserts . kobe beef . upscale mexican . unique beverages . sushi . brunch with a twist . prix fixe meals . whole grains . fruit in entrees . flavored vinegars . crepes . spice rubs . sage . sundried tomatoes . beignets . chaat . micro-greens . ciabatta . house-cured meats . ceviche 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 . yuzu . quinoa . poaching . savory spices in desserts . cheese course . interactive dining . upscale southern food . fondue . quince . gremolata . truffle oil . mediterranean spreads . souffles . tea . upscale noodle shops . branded meats . cheek meat . blood orange . polenta . crudo . chai flavored foods . espresso . artisan ice cream . fancy fried foods . deconstructed dishes . gourmet doughnuts . quinoa . sustainable seafood . black cod . upscale burgers 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 . food & fashion . tarts & crumbles . avocados . cardamom . meatballs . hibiscus . tagine . chorizo . superfoods . langoustines . ginger . sweet potato . heirloom produce . kids' menus . kebabs / skewered foods . mandarin oranges . miso . goji berries . butternut squash . bagel shops . beets . balsamic vinegar . black foods . ethnic fried chicken . panini . innovative meat cuts . tart frozen yogurt . new surf & turf . farm to table . monkfish . upscale cuban food . jicama . coffee infused foods 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 . burrata . toum . mango . acai . upscale eggs . new tuna . smoked paprika . banh mi . cupcakes . farro . upscale fish n' chips . new hot dogs . dumplings . kale . basque cuisine . tofu . flan . poutine . eco-eateries . mint . pupusas . beer-infused foods . gastropubs . rouget . flatbreads . kimchee . lentils . guerrilla dining . brussels sprouts . goat cheese . edible weeds . maple syrup 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 . pho . salt bricks & hot rocks . goat meat . mezze . slow food . portuguese cuisine . black garlic . peruvian cuisine . small fish . foam . persimmon . naan bread . rare pig breeds . food trucks . butterscotch . broccoli rabe . smoked meats . hanger & skirt steak . curry . better burgers . macaroni & cheese . chick peas . hummus . winter vegetables . shallots . kohlrabi . new superfruits . cowboy cuisine . cactus . empanadas . almojabana . vanilla in savory dishes . protein shakes 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 . bacon in desserts . marshmallow . pickling . nouveau vegetarian . brick oven . edamame . yucca . fast-casual mediterranean . authentic tacos . macaroons . entertainment venues . savory cocktails . beer in desserts . oatmeal . brittle . wild game . pennsylvania dutch cuisine . restaurant gardens . egg on everything . ice pops . anise . farofa . upscale BBQ . charcuterie . five spice . korean cuisine . kitschy breakfast . carnival foods . red velvet 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 . non-meat carpaccio . pop-up restaurants . tater tots . parfaits . arctic char . ramps . arancini . upscale soft serve . new brew pubs . reconstructed . coconut water . sriracha . agave nectar . pretzel rolls . new caramel . upscale sandwich shops . artichokes . adult grilled cheese . new meatballs . izakayas . pates / rilletes / terrines . nordic cuisine . kombucha . new citrus We’re not here to tell you what you already know. Nutrition, twisted comfort, and ethnic flavors all still matter but are mostly old news. So let’s instead take a look at some of our more cutting edge predictions… . Designer Tacos . Bone Marrow . Pork shoulder . Skinny cocktails . Smoked cheeses . Cauliflower . New berries: 2012 lingonberry, loganberry & elderberry Culinary Platforms . Pine . New ancient grains: freekeh, millet & faro . Pioneer plants: chicory, sorghum & sassafras . Breakfast food trucks . Democratized Fine Dining . One last year of menu contraction . Historic inspirations . High flavor health 2012 . Enhanced menu descriptions . Trucks develop brick & mortar outposts Major Trends . Pop-up restaurants . Extreme local sourcing . Foraged foods . Location based apps . Technology at the table BREAKFAST food trucks By now, food trucks are old news… but we believe the segment will evolve with a new focus on breakfast. Why we think it’ll happen: . As the market saturates, operators will need to diversify into new dayparts . Breakfast is still a fertile ground for innovation . Pork is a natural fit with breakfast, and is a truly beloved protein by food truck operators Food trucks operators really, really love pork… High (150 - 500) Ultra High (500+) Food Trucks Index Food Trucks Index Shredded Pork Short Rib Brisket Carne Asada Angus Pulled Pork Tri-tip Chorizo Hot Dogs Tongue Pork Smoked Bacon Datassential MenuTrends: Food Trucks Database vs. US Chains & Independents Buttermilk [Los Angeles, CA] Hawaiian Bread Breakfast Sliders Portuguese sausage, sauteed onions and shoyu scrambled eggs on Hawaiian bread Look for breakfast to get a lot more interesting… Menu Contraction and then new growth We expect one more year of menu contraction… Average Menu Size (items per menu) [excludes beverages; “all day menus” only] . Restaurants continue to focus on core profitable items 94.8 93.2 92.8 . But influence of trucks, fast- fine, and other segments will 89.9 89.8 spur adoption of new trends 87.8 . Look for innovation to again In 2008, the recession hits… operators accelerate… start paring down their menus to focus on core, profitable items. … and potential menu growth 80.3 in 2013 and beyond 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Datassential MenuTrends There are a vast array of trends that chains have yet to tap into… Much more common at CHAINS Roughly COMPARABLE Overstated: Much more common at INDEPENDENTS Southwestern (+308%) Pot Roast (+268%) Pepperjack (+220%) Ciabatta (+214%) Honey Mustard (+197%) Chipotle (+193%) Understated: Pork (-198%) Gorgonzola (-241%) Aioli (-238%) Picatta (-138%) Tomatillo (-182%) Wasabi (-117%) Datassential MenuTrends More Common at Chains There are literally hundreds More 30% of advancing trends at Common at independents that have yet Indeps. to be tapped by chains. 52% Comparable 18% Datassential MenuTrends Just a few example of trends at independents… that chains haven’t yet responded to quite as quickly Pen. % Gain Pen. % Gain Pen. % Gain Queso Fresco 3% +209% Organic 9% +70% White Bean 5% +46% Harissa 2% +175% Gruyere 5% +64% Pear 10% +46% Blood Orange 2% +175% Terrine 1% +63% Poblano 7% +46% Guajillo 2% +164% Sweet Potatoes 11% +60% Radish 9% +41% Sea Salt 3% +155% Deviled Eggs 2% +59% Leek 8% +39% Sweet Potato Fries 4% +140% Marmalade 3% +58% Caprese 10% +36% Yuzu 2% +110% Fennel 10% +57% Skirt Steak 7% +35% Butternut Squash 5% +109% Aioli 14% +57% Cherry Tomato 9% +34% Dried Cranberries 6% +90% Serrano 3% +53% Braised 19% +34% Brioche 6% +84% Arugula 15% +52% Seared 25% +33% Short Rib 8% +83% Truffle 8% +49% Goat Cheese 19% +33% and there are literally hundreds more to explore… Datassential MenuTrends DEMOCRATIZED FINE DINING the new CHEF-CASUAL segment The 90’s and early 2000’s were about the growth of Fast-Casual 1993 1999 2004 2011 Panera Bread Fast Casual Panera Bread Chipotle opens its first store Company is concepts total surpasses 1500 formed $10B in sales stores 1990 1995 2000