BEFORE A BOARD OF INQUIRY RUAKURA DEVELOPMENT PLAN CHANGE IN THE MATTER of the Resource Management Act 1991 AND IN THE MATTER of a Board of Inquiry appointed under section 149J of the Resource Management Act 1991 to consider a Plan Change requested by Tainui Group Holdings Limited and Chedworth Properties Limited _____________________________________________________________________________ STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF MARK GAUNTLETT TANSLEY ON BEHALF OF KIWI PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED AND KIWI PROPERTY MANAGEMENT LIMITED (COLLECTIVELY REFERRED TO AS "KIWI") _____________________________________________________________________________ 1.0.0 INTRODUCTION, EXPERIENCE & SUMMARY 1.0.1 My name is Mark Gauntlett Tansley and I am a Statistical and Retailing Consultant, based in Auckland. I have read and agree to comply with the Code of Conduct for Expert Witnesses in the Environment Court, Consolidated Practice Note 2011. In preparing and presenting this statement, other than where I state that I am relying upon the evidence of another person, the evidence in this statement is within my area of expertise. I have not omitted to consider material facts known to me that might alter or detract from the opinions which I express below. 1.0.2 I am a Registered Property Consultant under the auspices of the NZ Property Institute and the sole proprietor and director of Marketplace New Zealand Limited, which is a consultancy providing advice, information and evidence on growth and demographics, retail planning and related resource management matters. I have forty-seven years of professional experience, throughout New Zealand, and have been called as an expert witness for forty-two of those. 1.1.0 Waikato Experience 1.1.1 I have a long history of involvement in consultancy work in the Waikato, tracing back to the early establishment of what is now Westfield Chartwell in the early 1970's (including a management and consultancy role up to 1974). Of greater relevance in these proceedings however, was my engagement by Westfield New Zealand Limited and Kiwi Income Property Trust to give evidence before the Hamilton City Council in regard to the draft and then proposed Hamilton District Plan in 1999 and 2000, which is now the Operative Hamilton District Plan (" the Operative Plan ") and in the subsequent appeals to the Environment Court. 1.2.0 Thrust of this Statement 1.2.1 My evidence in this hearing relates to concerns expressed in the submission ("the Kiwi Submission ") by Kiwi Property Holdings Limited and Kiwi Property Management Limited (collectively, " Kiwi ") on the Knowledge Area and Suburban Centre aspects of the pPC request by Tainui Group Holdings Limited and Chedworth Properties Limited. 1.2.2 In this evidence I will briefly set the scene and background context in topics 2.0.0 and 3.0.0, before providing a detailed assessment of CBD trends over a period of 11-12 years, in Section 4.0.0. I then identify what I regard as the main factors behind those trends in Section 5.0.0, and state my concerns about future CBD prospects in topic 6.0.0. I finally turn to aspects of the pPC, and briefly touch upon Dr McDermott's evidence in that context. Where appropriate, I refer to the Proposed Waikato Regional Policy Statement (" the PRPS ") and Proposed Hamilton District Plan (" the PP "). 1.2.3 I consider that it is appropriate for there to be some provision made for office and retail activity through the pPC but that the relevant provisions need to be refined in order to be consistent with the PRPS and PP and not cumulatively contribute to adverse effects on the amenity, vitality and functionality of the Hamilton city centre. 1.3.0 Terminology 1.3.1 I will use four terms to describe various aspects of the centre of Hamilton, including the CBD, CBD Core and CBD Fringe. This section explains those areas. The terminology has been developed with reference to the Operative Plan. 1.3.2 The Operative Plan offers no definition of the Central Business District ("CBD"). However, there are two zones which contain the vast bulk of the commercial activity and for practical purposes, all the retailing lies within the Commercial Service Zone ("CSZ") or within the City Centre Zone ("CCZ"). These two areas could broadly be categorised as the CBD fringe and core areas. Both Zones lie within the 2013 statistical area units called Hamilton Central and Hamilton West. Page | 2 1.3.3 The CBD zoning pattern adopted in the Operative Plan has been a relevant and useful guide for retail surveys since its notification. However, I have tended to use more generic terms and will continue to do so in this statement. These terms are: 1. CBD Core : the operative CCZ / the commercial heart of the CBD. This area is slightly smaller than the Downtown Precinct in the Proposed Plan as it excludes both the block which contains Kmart and The Warehouse and also the larger block to the latter's north, which includes the Transport Centre and the now-vacant Countdown premises. 2. CBD Core-Plus : the CBD Core, plus the block bounded by Ward, Tristram, Bryce and Anglesea Streets. The addition forms part of the Downtown Precinct in the Proposed Plan, but is currently zoned CSZ (see below). 3. CBD Fringe : the operative Hamilton Central CSZ. The outer boundaries closely correspond to those now proposed to be zoned Central City but for my purposes, this term excludes the CBD Core (but includes the Core-Plus blocks). 4. CBD : the above areas combined, essentially the proposed Central City Zone. 1.3.4 Attachment 1, containing maps to which I refer, includes Maps 1 and 2 showing those four defined areas as well as area units earlier referred to (paragraph 1.3.2). 2.0.0 THE PLAN CHANGE PROVISIONS RE THE KNOWLEDGE AREA AND SUBURBAN CENTRE 2.0.1 The proposed Plan Change ("pPC") affects areas to the east of the former boundary of the City, transferred to it from Waikato District. The land concerned stretches from Chedworth in the north to Silverdale in the south, an extent depicted on Map 3 in Attachment 1, using a former statistical area unit map for context. As can be seen from a copy of the Census 2013 area unit map (Map 4 in Attachment 1) the pPC land equates to the newly created area unit termed "Newstead". Map 4 has been labelled to identify other relevant area units and the location of the main suburban centres east of the Waikato River. 2.0.2 I subsequently use the term "Ruakura" to refer to both the Newstead area unit and the pPC area as a whole. 2.0.3 In broad terms, the Ruakura proposal includes provisions for: 1) a Knowledge Area, provisions for which enable "ancillary offices to permitted research, innovation, education and laboratory activities " as a permitted activity; Page | 3 2) a residential precinct in the northern-most part, within which a neighbourhood centre (proposed Business 7 Zone) is proposed; 3) a Suburban Centre in the south alongside / as part of the Knowledge Area, with a building footprint of 15,000m² gfa. 2.0.4 My evidence ultimately concerns the potential for item 3 above to give rise to adverse environmental effects on other centres, in particular the CBD Core and proposed Downtown Precinct area, and to be inconsistent with the direction of the PRPS and that of the PP. The context of my views is explained below, insofar as the function and vitality of the CBD and CBD Core are concerned. 3.0.0 MY 2002 EVIDENCE & BACKGROUND CIRCUMSTANCES 3.0.1 Before describing the current state of the Hamilton CBD in detail I want to make some brief background observations. 3.0.2 In my opinion Hamilton’s current circumstances stem from a change in strategy that occurred when what is now the Operative District Plan was notified over a decade ago. It was that change which led me to present evidence to the Environment Court in 2002. Since then, I have tracked relevant retail supply trends, retail spending trends, dwelling consents and household formation for Hamilton. I have drawn on that work in this statement. My concerns regarding the current state of and risks to the Hamilton CBD arise in large part from the decisions made in 2001-2003, regarding the Operative Plan. Prior to 2000, the Hamilton planning instruments had contained relatively constraining provisions for retail and related commercial development. The now Operative Plan, on public notification, proposed to liberalise many of these provisions. The decision on submissions by Hamilton City Council (" Council "), notified in December 2001, adopted an even more liberal approach, which included the application of the CSZ to what is now the site of The Base Shopping Centre in Te Rapa (" The Base "). 3.0.3 Both the widespread application of the CSZ (including to the Tainui land at Te Rapa) and the Council's revised proposals for rules governing retailing in the Industrial Zone were confirmed in the 2003 Environment Court decision, notwithstanding my evidence and that of others regarding the likely adverse effects of so doing. The Court also declined to introduce any constraints on retailing on the CSZ stating in its decision [at paragraph 148] that the impacts of retail development would not be sufficient to generate flow-on consequential effects (ie effects beyond trade competition). The Court accepted evidence for Council that the prospect of a Chartwell-type development at the Te Rapa CSZ was more theoretical than real. I had considered it real. 3.0.4 I consider that ensuing events have validated every one of my 2002 opinions and will increasingly do so in the next few years.